This article is part of our NFL Barometer series.
The NFL has an ever-changing landscape, and the purpose of this weekly article is to help identify trends that could have long-term impacts on fantasy rosters.
RISING
Jordan Howard, RB, CHI
Howard wasn't a big factor in the red zone this year, at least until he faced the 49ers in a Week 13 snowstorm when he scored three times to double his touchdown output on the season. Despite reducing his workload earlier in the year, coach John Fox obviously realizes now that he's found his running back of the future after the rookie churned out at least 99 combined yards in five consecutive games while rushing for 4.9 yards per carry. In addition to his solid rushing numbers, he's also surpassed 42 receiving yards four times, so he should continue to be an excellent fantasy option regardless of matchup.
Ted Ginn, WR, CAR
He's always been a bit of a one-trick pony with his ability as a deep threat, and that's what makes him dangerous to use in fantasy lineups. However, despite not having more than five receptions in any game this season, the veteran has posted at least 40 yards in seven straight, so his floor has risen. He's also been on a hot streak as he's caught touchdown passes in each of his last three games. In addition, he's seen enough targets to keep
The NFL has an ever-changing landscape, and the purpose of this weekly article is to help identify trends that could have long-term impacts on fantasy rosters.
RISING
Jordan Howard, RB, CHI
Howard wasn't a big factor in the red zone this year, at least until he faced the 49ers in a Week 13 snowstorm when he scored three times to double his touchdown output on the season. Despite reducing his workload earlier in the year, coach John Fox obviously realizes now that he's found his running back of the future after the rookie churned out at least 99 combined yards in five consecutive games while rushing for 4.9 yards per carry. In addition to his solid rushing numbers, he's also surpassed 42 receiving yards four times, so he should continue to be an excellent fantasy option regardless of matchup.
Ted Ginn, WR, CAR
He's always been a bit of a one-trick pony with his ability as a deep threat, and that's what makes him dangerous to use in fantasy lineups. However, despite not having more than five receptions in any game this season, the veteran has posted at least 40 yards in seven straight, so his floor has risen. He's also been on a hot streak as he's caught touchdown passes in each of his last three games. In addition, he's seen enough targets to keep him viable, averaging seven in his last seven games. He seems fairly safe to use as a WR3, especially due to the consistency of targets.
Travis Kelce, TE, KC
It always seems as if we're just waiting for Kelce to fall back to earth after a big performance, but he now has posted three straight 100-yard games while seeing two of his three highest target totals of the season. He's been targeted 10.6 times in those three contests, and he's responded by catching 23 passes. Even though Jeremy Maclin is likely to return to the lineup soon, it's tough to imagine that coach Andy Reid will go away from Kelce after such an exceptional streak of performances. However, the only knock on his recent tear is that he hasn't found the end zone, something he's done just three times all year. That said, it appears as if he's becoming the elite option many fantasy owners expected the last few seasons.
Julian Edelman, WR, NE
He's back! After posting 60 yards or less with just one touchdown over a six-game stretch, Edelman is back to being an excellent weekly option. In his last four games, he's had at least 77 yards while catching at least seven passes, and he also scored a touchdown. He's also been targeted an impressive 40 times during the last three weeks. It was recently reported that the Patriots were comfortable in terms of his recovery from the foot injury that's been an issue for a long while, and, based on his usage, he now appears to have re-emerged as his quarterback's most reliable receiving option. He can safely be used as a WR2 and a borderline WR1 in PPR leagues, as his chemistry with Tom Brady will ensure that he continues his role as a consistent chain-mover for the Pats.
CHECK STATUS
Matt Ryan, QB, ATL
Ryan was on top of the world after throwing 23 touchdowns in his first nine games, but he's fallen on much tougher times since. Over the last three weeks, he's totaled four touchdown passes to go with three interceptions while failing to reach 300 yards in any of those games. Part of his downturn has to do with the effectiveness of the team's rushing attack, and Ryan has only passed 40 times once all year, failing to surpass 35 attempts in any of his last six games. He's also been hurt by the fact that the Atlanta running backs have scored multiple times on the ground, taking away potential passing scores when the Falcons are in the red zone. Putting it all together, he looks like a mid-range QB1 with upside as the fantasy playoffs loom.
Spencer Ware, RB, KC
Ware scored a pair of touchdowns in Week 13, but that was the first time he's found the end zone in five games. The bigger issue is that he's failed to reach four yards per carry in three of his last five games, averaging 3.56 yards per carry. The good news is that he's touched the ball 16-20 times the last four weeks, so his volume will ensure at least RB2 production. However, he's only exceeded 85 total yards once in five games, making it difficult to count on him for elite upside. Overall, as long as fantasy owners are realistic with expectations, he'll typically return consistent weekly value.
Zach Ertz, TE, PHI
Although he's been quite inconsistent all season, Ertz is improving as the season moves along, scoring his first two touchdowns of the year in the last three weeks. In addition, after averaging four targets in the first four games of the season, he's averaged more than nine in the five games since. Despite the increase in targets, however, he's had a pair of games with 36 or fewer yards, though he's also had at least 44 in the other three. Overall, the added work is excellent, but his inconsistency makes him a high-variance weekly starting option at tight end.
Adam Thielen, WR, MIN
Thielen hasn't had a bad fantasy performance in five weeks, as he's had at least 53 yards, a touchdown or both. He's also seen an uptick in targets -- after no more than five in eight of his first 10 games, he's had at least nine in each of his last two. That said, one of those games occurred when Stefon Diggs was out with a knee injury, and the other saw Diggs playing at less than 100 percent in last week's game. It's possible that in the Vikings' quick-strike offense that Thielen will see regular targets, but it's also possible that Diggs goes back to seeing as many targets as he can handle. Although it's a tenuous situation, Thielen should be rostered in most fantasy leagues, and if he still sees volume with a closer-to-full-health Diggs in Week 14, then he could be a solid starting option down the stretch.
FALLING
James Starks, RB, GB
Before missing time in the middle of the season with an injury, Starks was absolutely dreadful, as he had 42 yards on 24 carries, and things haven't gotten much better since then. In his four games since returning to the lineup, he's had exactly 100 rushing yards on 37 attempts. In his defense, he did have a three-game stretch in which he caught 13 passes for 84 yards and two touchdowns, but last week he saw his role reduced at the expense of Ty Montgomery and Christine Michael. It looks like his ineffective running could lead to him falling to third on the depth chart, making him a player who likely should be placed on the waiver wire.
Steve Smith, WE, BAL
Before spraining his ankle in Week 5, Smith had a three-week span in which he averaged six receptions for 87 yards along with one touchdown, but for the most part, he hasn't been the same player since returning to the lineup. With the exception of a game in which he had 99 yards and a touchdown, he's failed to exceed 60 yards in any of his other four games. He's also been targeted less upon his return, as he's averaging 7.5, which is more than 1.5 less than he had earlier in the season. The Ravens have also been sending a few more targets per game to other receivers like Breshad Perriman and Kamar Aiken, which seemingly come at Smith's expense. At this stage, the veteran is looking like a WR3, when he was much closer to a WR2 earlier in the season.
Devontae Booker, RB, DEN
Many fantasy owners rejoiced when Booker took over the lead running back job for the Broncos when C.J. Anderson was lost to an injury, but he hasn't quite been the difference-maker that many had hoped for. On a positive note, he's combined for at least 84 yards in three of his last five yards along with two touchdowns over his last five games. Unfortunately, he's failed to surpass 3.3 yards per carry in any of those games, including 18 carries for 35 yards in Week 13. It's difficult to imagine that head coach Kubiak will continue to give him the same amount of work given the lack of production.
Willie Snead, WR, NO
Snead had a solid start to the season when he had a pair of games with at least 87 yards in his first five matchups. However, he's failed to have more than 56 yards in any game since, and hasn't had more than five receptions and 47 yards in any of his last five. Despite playing in the high-powered Saints passing attack, Michael Thomas has been the only bankable option, while all other pass-catchers in the offense are left to fight for the leftovers. It's difficult to endorse him as anything more than a dart-throw flex option as the fantasy playoffs begin.
