This article is part of our The Daily Puck series.
Listening to an episode of The Hockey PDOcast recently, Micah Blake McCurdy from HockeyViz.com discussed the inefficiency of ranking and including power-play percentage in team discussions. His case was that goals per 60 minutes with the man advantage was a better representation than power-play percentage because a goal scored three seconds into a power play should mean more than a goal scored with three seconds left in one.
It's a fair argument, and I lean on per 60 stats heavily. However, in this case, considering every team in the league has a much higher goals per 60 minutes with the man advantage than goals against per 60 minutes (obviously), there are plenty of scenarios where scoring later in a power play and killing clock might actually be more effective.
Personally, I look at power-play percentage along with shooting percentage and goals per 60 with the man advantage for offenses and penalty-kill percentage, save percentage and goals allowed per 60 minutes while shorthanded for defenses. It's a good balance.
Most importantly, though, it's important to be open to evaluating the game from various angles. Sports are evolving and the way analysts are processing them is, too. Being able to weed out noisy stats or at least being willing to incorporate new data into your fantasy approach will give you an edge.
Blue Jackets (PP: 1, PK: 17) at Capitals (PP: 17, PK: 3), 7:00 p.m.
Expected Goalies:Sergei Bobrovsky (25-5-2, 1.92, .934), Braden Holtby (16-8-4, 2.06, .926)
Key Injuries:
It took six goals and overtime for Washington to snap Toronto's five-game winning streak, so it'll be interesting to see what's in store to end Columbus' 16-game run. Winning in Washington is tough, as the Capitals are 43-13-5 at the Verizon Center over the past two seasons, after all. Anyway you want to slice it (due for a loss, negative regression ahead, overachieving), the margin of victory between good teams is usually small, and Columbus is going to be on the losing side of a hard-fought game sooner than later. Interestingly, Washington also opened as -125 favorites. It'd be remiss not to highlight Dmitry Orlov's recent surge (11 points over his past 14 games), and the stats don't highlight his increased confidence advancing the puck or while utilizing his mobility.
Predators (PP: 13, PK: 15) at Lightning (PP: 2, PK: 23), 7:30 p.m.
Expected Goalies:Pekka Rinne (13-10-6, 2.50, .917), Andrei Vasilevskiy (10-6-2, 2.63, .914)
Key Injuries:P.K. Subban (upper body), Ben Bishop (lower body), Brian Boyle (lower body), Ryan Callahan (lower body), Cedric Paquette (lower body), Brayden Point (upper body), Steven Stamkos (knee)
In September, these two teams were a trendy Stanley Cup matchup. Now, three months into the season, neither the Predators nor Lightning are even holding a playoff berth. Injuries have certainly taken a toll on Tampa Bay, but it isn't as cut and dry for Nashville. The one main disparity between the two teams for Thursday's bout is the home-road splits of the two clubs. Nasvhille is just 6-9-2 on the road, while Tampa Bay remains a tough beat on home ice with an 11-6-2 record. It's worth noting that Filip Forsberg is finding a groove with five goals through his past seven games after scoring just three over his first 30 outings.
Wild (PP: 16, PK: 5) at Sharks (PP: 19, PK: 11), 10:30 p.m.
Expected Goalies:Devan Dubnyk (19-7-3, 1.75, .941), Martin Jones (19-12-2, 2.10, .920)
Key Injuries:Tomas Hertl (knee), David Schlemko (upper body), Marc-Edouard Vlasic (face)
Last season's Western Conference representative meeting the best team in the conference this year sets up as a nice matchup. However, it likely won't be overly high scoring. The Wild allow the second-fewest goals per game (2.06) in the league, and San Jose's 2.16 mark is fourth lowest. Additionally, Dubnyk and Jones have been two of the best goalies in the league this season. Columbus snapped the Wild's 12-game winning streak Saturday, and Minnesota has been sitting on the loss since. There is a lot to like about them bouncing back with a win against the Sharks on Thursday, but San Jose is also an impressive 13-4-1 at home this year. This should have a playoff atmosphere.
Other Matchups
Oilers (PP: 8, PK: 18) at Bruins (PP: 25, PK: 2), 7:00 p.m.
Expected Goalies:Cam Talbot (18-11-6, 2.47, .919), Tuukka Rask (19-8-3, 1.93, .928)
Key Injuries:David Backes (concussion), Matt Beleskey (knee), John-Michael Liles (concussion), Andrew Ference (hip), Darnell Nurse (ankle), Tyler Pitlick (knee)
Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are expected to play together in all situations Thursday, which is sweet music to fantasy ears. In limited time together at five-on-five this season, the duo has combined for an impressive 3.2 goals per 60 minutes and 60.4 Corsi For percentage at five-on-five. It's your move Patrice Bergeron.
Hurricanes (PP: 14, PK: 1) at Blues (PP: 9, PK: 3), 8:00 p.m.
Expected Goalies:Cam Ward (13-11-6, 2.28, .915), Jake Allen (17-9-3, 2.61, .905)
Key Injuries:Justin Faulk (lower body), Eddie Lack (concussion), Elias Lindholm (upper body), Robert Bortuzzo (lower body), Carl Gunnarsson (lower body), Nail Yakupov (illness)
Despite an underwhelming 4-5-1 record through its past 10 games, St. Louis remains 15-3-4 on home ice, and grab a soft matchup Thursday. Carolina has lost two straight games and has just five road wins all year with an average of only 2.33 goals per away game. After a strong start to the season, Victor Rask has missed the scoresheet in 10 of his past 16 games, including five consecutive outings. He's worth watching closely because it could be buy-low spot or time to cut ties.
Sabres (PP: 7, PK: 30) at Blackhawks (PP: 15, PK: 28), 8:30 p.m.
Expected Goalies:Robin Lehner (8-12-5, 2.51, .921), Corey Crawford (13-8-3, 2.31, .927)
Key Injuries:Tyler Ennis (groin), Josh Gorges (hip), Dmitry Kulikov (back), Johan Larsson (wrist), Ryan O'Reilly (abdomen), Marcus Kruger (upper body)
Who remembers Spencer Abbott? Well, the former University of Maine standout has just a single game of NHL experience, but is expected to line up with Marian Hossa and Jonathan Toews on Thursday. Buffalo notched a road upset over the Rangers on Tuesday, so topping the Blackhawks at the United Center is a tall task. Look for a strong outing from Crawford.
Red Wings (PP: 30, PK: 12) at Kings (PP: 21, PK: 9), 10:30 p.m.
Expected Goalies:Jared Coreau (2-1-1, 3.43, .889), Peter Budaj (17-10-3, 2.00, .921)
Key Injuries:Justin Abdelkader (knee), Mike Green (upper body), Darren Helm (shoulder), Jimmy Howard (leg), Niklas Kronwall (undisclosed), Alexey Marchenko (shoulder), Brendan Smith (leg), Jonathan Quick (groin), Tyler Toffoli (lower body)
Thanks to an 11-4-1 home record, the Kings find themselves in a playoff position despite an underwhelming supporting cast and Quick missing the entire season. It's actually somewhat amazing that Los Angeles owns the second-best Corsi For percentage (54.0) after checking out that roster. This is a difficult road back-to-back spot for the Red Wings after being shutout in Anaheim on Wednesday.
Recommended Pickup
Kevin Labanc, F, SAN: Currently excelling in a second-line role, Labanc has three goals, five points and 12 shots through his past five games. He's also received 2:06 of power-play time during the stretch. His 1.23 goals and 1.85 points per 60 minutes are excellent marks, and he's been an elite scorer at each stop of his career. While still likely best suited for deeper leagues, a speculative flier could reward in shallower settings, too. After all, Labanc has 89 goals and 290 points through his past 191 hockey games. He can flat out score.
