• I've been beating this drum quite obnoxiously for some time, but I'll say again that the only way Jamaal Charles isn't by far the lead producer at running back for Denver is if his knee renders him unable to play. That concern is a more than reasonable one – despite my optimism around Charles, his knee scares me enough that he's an RB4 to me.
But I've seen too much analysis positing that Charles may be healthy and still somehow behind one or both of C.J. Anderson and Devontae Booker. Please.
Booker averaged 3.5 yards per carry in an offense built by one of the league's most accomplished running game engineers in Gary Kubiak. Anderson was a backup in college to Isi Sofele, who I'm assuming no one reading this has ever heard of. Charles deserves to be a Hall of Famer and is one of the very most efficient, explosive players in NFL history.
Yes, he's 30 years old and is coming off two lost seasons due to knee issues. But the injury risk is more than factored into his acquisition cost – I've seen him going around the 12th and 14th rounds in MFL10s, well after players like Theo Riddick, Kenneth Dixon, Duke Johnson, etc., who have personnel-dictated playing time limitations of their own, and at much lesser levels of talent than what Charles possesses when healthy. Charles has a career rushing average of 5.5 yards per carry. He can afford to
• I've been beating this drum quite obnoxiously for some time, but I'll say again that the only way Jamaal Charles isn't by far the lead producer at running back for Denver is if his knee renders him unable to play. That concern is a more than reasonable one – despite my optimism around Charles, his knee scares me enough that he's an RB4 to me.
But I've seen too much analysis positing that Charles may be healthy and still somehow behind one or both of C.J. Anderson and Devontae Booker. Please.
Booker averaged 3.5 yards per carry in an offense built by one of the league's most accomplished running game engineers in Gary Kubiak. Anderson was a backup in college to Isi Sofele, who I'm assuming no one reading this has ever heard of. Charles deserves to be a Hall of Famer and is one of the very most efficient, explosive players in NFL history.
Yes, he's 30 years old and is coming off two lost seasons due to knee issues. But the injury risk is more than factored into his acquisition cost – I've seen him going around the 12th and 14th rounds in MFL10s, well after players like Theo Riddick, Kenneth Dixon, Duke Johnson, etc., who have personnel-dictated playing time limitations of their own, and at much lesser levels of talent than what Charles possesses when healthy. Charles has a career rushing average of 5.5 yards per carry. He can afford to lose a step or even two and still remain better than Anderson or Booker.
I'll keep my fingers crossed a while longer before feeling any substantial assurance on the health front, but I was still happy to see Charles all but declared himself healthy, saying that he's cutting again and feels 'back to his normal self.' Being healthy now and staying healthy until and during the season are all very different things, but I can't help but get my hopes up with each cleared hurdle.
• The NFL will not suspend Bills running back Jonathan Williams for violating the league's substance abuse policy following a not guilty verdict regarding a DWI charge from July of 2016. I let him slip my mind this offseason, but this news item reminds me that I'm generally high on Williams as a running back prospect. That he's the presumed backup to LeSean McCoy makes him a matter of significant interest to me going forward, especially in best ball formats.
I'm a fan of McCoy's talent and figure to own him a fair amount this year, but there is a significant level of objective risk regarding durability and per-play efficiency. He played through ankle and hamstring issues at separate points last year, and he dealt with injuries to those same areas in the summer, too. That's not to mention the four games he missed in 2015 with knee and hamstring troubles. Furthermore, he has 2,929 touches from scrimmage going back to his college days at Pittsburgh, which makes him a candidate to see his athleticism sapped in the upcoming years.
Williams, meanwhile, should be the first one on the field if McCoy should leave it. Williams will probably never approach McCoy's level of productivity, but I think his prospect profile implies the upside of at least an average NFL starting running back, in which case he would still be a major fantasy asset if he should stumble into a significant snap count.
He was selected in the fifth round of the 2016 draft despite missing the 2015 season with a foot injury, which is a pretty major accomplishment in itself. But it's otherwise worth noting that he ran for 2,321 yards (5.7 YPC) and 16 touchdowns in the SEC, and he showed considerable pass-catching upside by turning 26 receptions into 345 yards (13.3 YPR) and six touchdowns. In addition to the strong production, Williams' film is also at a high grade, with his ability to convert anchor strength into explosion (and vice versa) standing out for a runner of his build. His athleticism is merely of a C-grade, but a 4.63 40 and 6.97-three-cone are adequate for a 5-foot-11, 220-pound runner. In the context of a prospect profile with at least B+ film and production, moreover, Williams doesn't need a strong athleticism variable to project well to the NFL.
There's no guarantee that the new coaching staff uses Williams the same way the previous one used Mike Gillislee, but Gillislee saw 101 carries last year, 18 of which were in the red zone, turning it into 577 yards and eight touchdowns. I doubt there are many who would argue that Gillislee was especially close to Williams' level as a prospect out of college.
• The Colts could start their turnaround soon enough – it would take a transparent saboteur to GM a team worse than Ryan Grigson did – but I think they're in danger of an embarrassing collapse in 2017.
Renown industry injury expert Stephania Bell offered some reassuring analysis on the radio the other day, but the surface-level facts on Andrew Luck's shoulder injury have me nauseous. Luck has yet to resume throwing at all, which disturbs me given the fact that initial reports said Luck would be unable to throw for just three months. We're approaching six. The Colts never did offer a concrete prognosis following the procedure, instead leaning on a somewhat cryptic theme of Luck being ready for Week 1. That would be nearly eight months after the surgery, for an injury that generally cites a six-month recovery time.
While I expect Luck to step onto the field in Week 1, I'm worried he'll do so in a compromised state that leaves him both less effective and vulnerable to further injury. If he's at all less than himself, that leaves the Colts with a trash projection. There isn't a strong offensive line to keep Luck upright or spring the bottom-grade running back talent on the roster, and the defense has questionable, inexperienced personnel as the team switches to a 4-3 scheme.
Could there be some garbage-time utility among the team's pass catchers in this scenario, at least? There could be. I think they'll be losing plenty, and playing catch-up a great deal as a result. But the main candidates to capitalize – wideouts T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief – carry acquisition costs that presume the presence of a functional Luck. I'd need to see their ADPs slip before I'd be likely to draft either one right now. It's worth mentioning that both Hilton and Moncrief have extensive injury histories of their own.
Barring some encouraging developments with Luck's health, I'll probably be fading all Colts in the meantime, with the exceptions of Jack Doyle and Erik Swoope. They don't carry big price tags, and I figure even Scott Tolzien or an injured Luck can still complete some checkdown throws in garbage time.
