This article is part of our NFL Barometer series.
RISING
Christian McCaffrey, RB, CAR
After the unnecessary panic about McCaffrey's role following Panthers.com's unsurprising projection of Jonathan Stewart starting at running back, the hype is starting to pick back up for McCaffrey now that training camp clips are coming out.
This clip from Panthers.com writer Bill Voth will make even the greatest McCaffrey skeptic raise an eyebrow or two. It's a video of a fully-padded McCaffrey shaking Luke Kuechly out wide to the left. Then he catches the ball. Then he pulls away from Kuechly with a spin move and a juke. If there is a better coverage linebacker in the NFL than Kuechly, there surely aren't more than three. It wouldn't have been a touchdown in a real game – a safety likely would have arrived to make the stop before a first down – but you can see how almost any offense could use McCaffrey's skills as a staple element.
As has been the case all along, Stewart's distinction as the starting running back barely infringes on McCaffrey's role at all. He may as well be considered a different position entirely. And in an offense whose No. 1 receiver was reportedly around 270 pounds a few months ago, that different position could see a great deal of targets in the passing game. There is a serious chance that McCaffrey leads the Panthers in receptions this year, so a cap of around 120 carries shouldn't be an issue, at least in PPR formats. I've been buying him
RISING
Christian McCaffrey, RB, CAR
After the unnecessary panic about McCaffrey's role following Panthers.com's unsurprising projection of Jonathan Stewart starting at running back, the hype is starting to pick back up for McCaffrey now that training camp clips are coming out.
This clip from Panthers.com writer Bill Voth will make even the greatest McCaffrey skeptic raise an eyebrow or two. It's a video of a fully-padded McCaffrey shaking Luke Kuechly out wide to the left. Then he catches the ball. Then he pulls away from Kuechly with a spin move and a juke. If there is a better coverage linebacker in the NFL than Kuechly, there surely aren't more than three. It wouldn't have been a touchdown in a real game – a safety likely would have arrived to make the stop before a first down – but you can see how almost any offense could use McCaffrey's skills as a staple element.
As has been the case all along, Stewart's distinction as the starting running back barely infringes on McCaffrey's role at all. He may as well be considered a different position entirely. And in an offense whose No. 1 receiver was reportedly around 270 pounds a few months ago, that different position could see a great deal of targets in the passing game. There is a serious chance that McCaffrey leads the Panthers in receptions this year, so a cap of around 120 carries shouldn't be an issue, at least in PPR formats. I've been buying him at the turn of the third and fourth rounds in MFL10s – I just hope I can keep getting the opportunity after today.
Deshaun Watson, QB, HOU
Bill O'Brien hasn't coached any good rookie quarterbacks in the NFL, but it should still be noted that he acknowledged Watson is significantly more developed than any other he's worked with. If Watson is surprising O'Brien with his polish, then the enormous talent differential between Watson and Tom Savage should manifest sooner rather than later.
I keep comparing Watson to a right-handed Jeff Garcia – a quarterback who lacks imposing size or arm strength but one with an extensive history of demonstrating rare instincts and rushing ability for the position. Savage cannot play quarterback in the NFL. To repeat myself from Twitter, to not predict a Watson start by Week 4 is to predict Brandon Weeden starts before Week 4. But I don't think Weeden will start any games this year.
Evan Engram, TE, NYG
To keep from making the article overly gloomy, I'll try to frame Sterling Shepard's ankle injury as a positive for Engram rather than dwell on Shepard's misfortune. But in any case, if Shepard does miss any significant amount of time with the injury, I think it would force the Giants to prepare a larger role for Engram in terms of target count. Odell Beckham will of course get an abundance of targets and Brandon Marshall will see another substantial share, but the Giants offense primarily runs in three-wideout formations, and Engram has more than enough athleticism to provide routes at a higher quality than backup receivers like Roger Lewis and Tavarres King.
As of writing this article, Shepard's injury was believed to be a mere 'ankle roll,' but even a non-break like a high ankle sprain could give the Giants coaches reason to give Engram more snaps at wideout in case Shepard isn't ready for Week 1. Engram (6-foot-3, 232 pounds) absolutely has the athleticism to do it – he posted a better 40 time (4.42) and agility score (11.15) coming out of college than Marshall did at 6-foot-5, 229 pounds, when he ran a 4.56 40 and posted an agility score of 11.27.
FALLING
Will Fuller, WR, HOU
A broken collarbone won't end his season, but it might reduce Fuller to a substantially smaller role in the Houston game plan when healthy. Particularly with second-year wideout Braxton Miller earning positive reviews in camp, there's a real possibility that Fuller could face a cap of WR3 on the depth chart, even if he shows well upon his return in two or three months.
It's been a very frustrating start to Fuller's career, and while I remain confident in his talent over the long term, this injury is a significant setback to his ability to maintain a prominent role in the Houston offense. Opportunity is the first requirement for fantasy value, and ceding all the reps to a talented pair of receivers like Miller and DeAndre Hopkins opens the possibility of Fuller returning to an indefinite third wideout role as a deep specialist, as opposed to the deep-striking WR2 role Houston was previously developing him for. After seeing 92 targets in 14 games last year, Fuller might see his target rate reduced from roughly seven per game to something closer to four or five upon his return.
Latavius Murray, RB, MIN
Dalvin Cook's extensive history of shoulder and hamstring issues makes Murray a logical candidate for the short-yardage and clock-eating running back role upon his eventual debut in Vikings practices, but in the meantime we're reaching the point where we can just about write him off as a potential starter.
An ankle surgery that was initially thought to keep Murray out for just the beginning of training camp still has no timetable for return. It's not an exaggeration to say that every rep Cook gets in Murray's absence creates a distance between the two that Murray lacks the talent to make up for later. Coach Mike Zimmer, who's normally somewhat withholding with his public praise, has made clear by now that he considers Cook a special talent. It was always obvious that Cook had no peer on the Vikings roster, but now that the coach believes it too, it's going to have real repercussions for the workload distribution.
Leonard Fournette, RB, JAC
I wouldn't let it affect his spot in my rankings – which I guess is about RB10 for me at the moment – but the surprise retirement of Branden Albert certainly wasn't the sort of news Fournette's owners were looking for at the start of training camp. The Jaguars will have to replace the 2015 Pro Bowler with second-round pick rookie Cam Robinson, an athletically talented Alabama product who stands at 6-foot-6, 322 pounds, but showed an unpolished skill set during his college snaps. Tackles generally don't hit their stride until their second or third year in the league, so the switch would appear to be a likely downgrade – potentially to a significant degree. But even if that were the case, it'd be a surprise if it knocked more than a handful of yards off Fournette's year-end projections. It's probably something that would more so matter if other Jaguars linemen get nicked up going forward, springing multiple leaks.
