Matchup Edge: Delayed Arrival

Indianapolis vs. Tennessee

Open: 44 O/U, TEN -3.5
Press time: 45.5 O/U, TEN -3.5

Is the real Marcus Mariota the one we saw the first two years, or the one from the last nine games? I'm stubbornly believing it's the former, but would concede that in the meantime the broader dysfunction of the Titans and the ineptness of his head coach might make Mariota unproductive until he has an offseason and coaching regime change to get right. Still, in a matchup against one of the league's least intimidating defenses, it would be a significant disappointment if he had a bad game here.

If he does, it might have something to do with the absence or limited availability of Rishard Matthews (hamstring), who was called a game-time decision for the contest. I like rookie Taywan Taylor a lot, but Eric Decker would probably be the primary replacement if Matthews is out, and Decker doesn't seem to have much left. Corey Davis is a player I still fully believe in, so perhaps he can step up in this setting. I generally consider him one of the better wide receiver plays this week. Cornerback Rashaan Melvin has drawn rave reviews this year, but that he's a journeyman corner who got beat up by Pierre Garcon earlier this year makes me suspect he's the second coming of Delvin Breaux – a guy who looks imposing simply because the other corners on his team are so unremarkable. I would bet on Davis' talent over his, in any case. Delanie Walker might have the highest floor among Tennessee pass catchers against a Colts defense allowing 7.5 yards per target to tight ends, and five touchdowns in ten games.

Derrick Henry is better than DeMarco Murray, but one of Mike Mularkey's unbearable flaws is his non-negotiable allegiance to Murray. Murray probably projects as a solid flex play against a Colts defense allowing 4.1 yards per carry to running backs, including eight rushing touchdowns in ten games and an enormous 500 yards on 55 targets to the position. Both players are justified easily enough in DFS tournaments.

It's hard to like either Indianapolis running back of note against a Tennessee defense allowing just 3.5 yards per carry to running backs, and just three rushing touchdowns in ten games. That things project so poorly for the Colts running game makes me like Jacoby Brissett that much more against a Titans defense that has reliably folded against good quarterbacks. I think Brissett is close enough to such status that the combination of the home stadium and T.Y. Hilton's typical dominance in the setting makes Brissett a QB1 this week. Hilton is one of the top wideout plays to me, and Jack Doyle remains viable in PPR contexts despite the Titans allowing just 5.6 yards per target to tight ends.

Jets vs. Carolina

Open: 39.5 O/U, CAR -5
Press time: 40 O/U, CAR -5.5

I hate this setup for the Jets and struggle to see how they'll move the ball or score points. The running game looks like a no-go against a Panthers defense allowing 68.5 rushing yards per game and 5.6 yards per target to running backs, and the strengths of the Jets passing game, namely Robby Anderson and Austin Seferian-Jenkins, are on a collision course with problematic matchups. Carolina's big corners bode poorly for Anderson, who might struggle to avoid the jam and won't have his usual height advantage, especially when facing James Bradberry. ASJ, meanwhile, figures to see a lot of Luke Kuechly's shutdown coverage. The Panthers are allowing just 7.2 yards per target to receivers, and 37.2 yards per game to tight ends.

It's hard to know what to expect from Greg Olsen in his first game back from a broken foot in an otherwise good matchup. The Jets' rookie safeties would normally be a mismatch in Olsen's favor, but it might be asking a lot of his foot for Olsen to display the abilities he typically shows at full strength. Devin Funchess probably remains the most reliable projection among Panthers pass catchers, even if he catches the competent Morris Claiborne in coverage. He's a big reason why the Jets are allowing just 7.1 yards per target to receivers, but the 11 touchdowns they've allowed to the position in ten games is a reassurance for Funchess' projection.

Cam Newton has been a monster on the ground lately and doesn't need a strong passing projection to provide strong fantasy value, so the lukewarm projections of Olsen and Funchess needn't be taken as a deterrent toward Newton. The Jets are tied for the seventh-most fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, including the fourth-most rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks.

If the Panthers defense does as well as I expect in this one, then the Carolina running game, despite whatever limitations it has, might be in the position to accumulate volume in favorable field positioning. I can't bring myself to use Jonathan Stewart in DFS, but his incumbency as the main between-the-tackles runner in Carolina could put him in scoring position. Christian McCaffrey has been better on the ground lately, but not much of it has been through conventional running back usage. That makes me take it for something of a gimmick, which makes me skeptical of the stability of that production moving forward. Still, he should remain busy as a pass catcher, especially if Claiborne gives Funchess any trouble. The Jets are allowing 6.4 yards per target to running backs, so it's not a bad matchup for McCaffrey's pass-catching work.

Atlanta vs. Tampa Bay

Open: 49 O/U, ATL -8.5
Press time: 47.5 O/U, ATL -10

The Buccaneers are tied for the fifth-most fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, and 7.9 yards per attempt. That this game is in Atlanta further bodes well for Matt Ryan, who should be at a safe advantage in this one from start to finish. The main concern might be the competitiveness of the game – will Ryan need to throw even 30 passes against an almost useless Tampa Bay team? The Falcons defense isn't great, but it might be good enough to tame the Buccaneers offense anyway.

The same dynamics apply to Julio Jones, who has an exceptionally good matchup against a defense allowing 8.8 yards per target to wide receivers, as well as 12 touchdowns in ten games. Do we think Jones will finish this year with one receiving touchdown? I certainly don't. I have to like his chances of scoring here, even if he's been a colossal bust this year. The main concern, again, is that Ryan finishes with something like 200 yards and one touchdown on 20 pass attempts. Jones could still get the touchdown and 120 of those yards, but it would entail a share of passing production he hasn't approached this year. Of course, Jones could play brilliantly only to see Mohamed Sanu continue to poach all the touchdowns.

Tevin Coleman might be the super-chalk this week with Devonta Freeman (concussion) out, but what a great matchup it is for Coleman, who I consider one of the league's most talented backs. The Buccaneers are allowing only 3.9 yards per carry to running backs, but Coleman would project for better if he is truly an above average talent. As one of the league's most dangerous pass catchers at running back, Coleman could also be a problem as a receiver against a defense allowing 6.5 yards per target to running backs.

Ryan Fitzpatrick might make some sense as a streamer and GPP option against a Falcons defense that has allowed the most rushing yardage to opposing quarterbacks. That the Falcons might score often and quickly could set up a shootout-friendly scenario in the dome, and because Fitzpatrick has Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson to throw to, the Buccaneers might even be able to answer to some extent. The Falcons have allowed just 13 passing touchdowns in ten games, however, and just 7.0 yards per target. Perhaps Fitzpatrick will put up numbers that result in a progression to the mean, perhaps not. Talented as Tampa's tight ends might be, especially O.J. Howard, he and Cameron Brate are difficult to trust with their fluctuating usage of late.

Doug Martin has failed in much better spots than this. As a heavy underdog, Martin might be not only inefficient, but deprived of volume in this context.

Philadelphia vs. Chicago

Open: 44 O/U, PHI -13
Press time: 44 O/U, PHI -14

I think the Eagles will use Jay Ajayi in correlation with how competitive a given situation might be, and as a heavy home favorite I think this setting generally leaves him with a projection capped at ten or 12 carries. If the game is closer, I would raise that projection, but I'm not optimistic about this being a particularly close game unless Philadelphia holds itself back with its playcalling. It's a plausible enough scenario – the Eagles will have much bigger fish to fry in the upcoming weeks, and they needn't show their best stuff to take down the Bears. Still, if that were their approach, it could just as easily lead them to holding back Ajayi, too, to keep him fresher for later. No matter the strategic considerations the Eagles might make with Ajayi, it's been the case for weeks that even Corey Clement and Kenjon Barner have seen red-zone snaps in opening drives. That's not even to account for whatever sort of threat LeGarrette Blount might pose. The Eagles running game should be productive due to volume and scoring opportunities, but good luck guessing how it's doled out.

Carson Wentz will face a well-coached defense here, and one that's generally played well this year, but you would have to still give him the decisive advantage in this matchup given how well he's played this year. My main concern is that he might not to throw much, and besides that I'm concerned that the Eagles might not run their best play calls in this one. I wouldn't hesitate to start him in season-long formats, but I won't be picking him in DFS.

Alshon Jeffery is poised to finish the season on a tear, and the clarity with which he's reached the distinction as Philadelphia's top receiver makes him a candidate to post strong numbers even if Wentz's production is modest. Talented as he is, Nelson Agholor is a bad bet to exceed five targets in a game with how the offense is currently structured. Zach Ertz was quiet against Dallas, but he's a good candidate to reestablish himself as Wentz's favorite target going forward. Even against a Bears defense allowing just 6.9 yards per target to tight ends, Ertz is one of the top tight end plays this week.

The Bears offense has some promising talent within it, and Mitchell Trubisky is on a fine enough trajectory right now, but this still sets up as a disaster spot for them. The Bears offense is uniquely dependent on Jordan Howard, but no defense in the league has been harsher on running backs, allowing just 3.0 yards per carry and just 47.3 yards per game to the position. Adam Shaheen is a beast at tight end, but you have to think whatever numbers he puts up will occur in a garbage time context.

Kansas City vs. Buffalo

Open: 45 O/U, KC -9.5
Press time: 46.5 O/U, KC -10

Tyrod Taylor obviously never should have been benched, and his return to the lineup is a boost for the Buffalo offense. The question is whether Taylor – who's much better at home than on the road – will be able to produce in Arrowhead with a ragged group of pass catchers. Kelvin Benjamin (knee) is out, and Jordan Matthews (knee) was limited in practice each day. Marcus Peters is the only Chiefs corner who can cover, but the Bills receivers might be so bad it doesn't matter.

LeSean McCoy torched the Chargers despite his team getting blown out with no passing game whatsoever, so he can't be ruled out of DFS tournament consideration against a Chiefs defense allowing 4.4 yards per carry. The Chiefs are allowing just 3.9 yards per target to running backs, however, so McCoy's pass-catching projection is probably harmed in this setting. You're of course firing him up in season-long in all scenarios, though.

Alex Smith doesn't have a prohibitively bad matchup despite the fact that the Bills have allowed nine passing touchdowns versus 11 interceptions. The smoke and mirrors from earlier this year hasn't covered the Bills' talent-deficient secondary as well lately. Still, I think Buffalo is most vulnerable against height and speed downfield, rather than the short routes Tyreek Hill is so frequently featured on. Kansas City would be smart to send him deep, but I'm not sure they will. I think Travis Kelce has a great matchup, on the other hand, against Buffalo's lumbering linebackers and small, slow safeties. They're allowing 7.6 yards per target to tight ends, so I think this is a blowup spot for Kelce.

It's understandable if fantasy players are bitter toward Kareem Hunt right now, but I'm keeping the faith as he heads into a home game as a heavy favorite against a Bills defense that's been pitiful against the run without Marcell Dareus. After a strong start to the year, the Bills are now allowing the second-most fantasy points to running backs, including 12 rushing touchdowns in ten games.

New England vs. Miami

Open: 47.5 O/U, NE -16
Press time: 48 O/U, NE -16.5

Jay Cutler was horrendous against Tampa Bay's bad pass defense, and I think Matt Moore is clearly better. I would expect the defense to key on Jarvis Landry given his status as the offense's primary crutch. Even with a touchdown in six of his last seven games, I'll probably stay away from Landry in DFS, even if he's a locked-in season-long asset at this point. He is averaging over six catches per game against the Patriots for his career, though. Still, the only Dolphins receivers I would approach in DFS this week would be DeVante Parker or Kenny Stills in tournaments, but I probably won't pick them, either.

Damien Williams and Kenyan Drake have their own tournament appeal to some extent since both players can make an impact as pass catchers. The Dolphins should fall behind early and for the duration of the game, forcing the Dolphins to abandon the run. I generally would try to limit their usage to flex plays in season-long formats, though.

The Patriots offense projects nicely in pretty much all regards. Playing at home against a Dolphins defense that can't rush the passer and has poor cornerback personnel, Tom Brady projects as a high-floor, high-ceiling option. Brandin Cooks has been hovering around ten targets per game for over a month now and is a safe WR1 in my estimation. Rob Gronkowski is a threat to go off any time Brady puts up numbers, so he's arguably the top tight end play, as ever. Danny Amendola is good at picking up the scraps.

The New England backfield seems to have settled into an arrangement where Dion Lewis does most of the primary running, with Rex Burkhead picking up the leftovers. Then Burkhead and James White split the receiving work at the position. All three players carry a wide range of outcomes, one pole very bad and the other very good. Where things settle seems entirely up to chance.

Cincinnati vs. Cleveland

Open: 38.5 O/U, CIN -7.5
Press time: 38 O/U, CIN -7.5

There's no concern over the weather for this one, so Andy Dalton should project nicely given his team's heavy favorite status despite the likelihood that the Cincinnati running game provides very little against a tough Cleveland run defense. You do worry about Myles Garrett perhaps rattling Dalton with the pass rush, but as long as he's not getting hit when he throws, Dalton should be competent enough to take advantage of Cleveland's poor pass defense.

A.J. Green of course has a strong projection. He's historically been better on the road than at home, perhaps because Cincinnati was more often the underdog in the latter cases, but I think he still has extremely high upside since he might be the team's main or only means of scoring like the spread in this game implies. It'd be one thing if Cincinnati was a heavy home favorite in a year where they could run even a little bit, but that just hasn't been the case. Brandon LaFell also has some amount of promise in his projection, especially since he shouldn't see much or any of Jason McCourty. Tyler Kroft has one of the better matchups for tight ends this week against a Cleveland defense allowing the third-most fantasy points to tight ends, including eight touchdowns in ten games.

I still fully believe in Joe Mixon's talent, but this running offense looks completely shot due to poor blocking and generally lethargic game planning. I'd certainly buy low in dynasty formats since the next coach will almost certainly be better than Marvin Lewis, but even as a heavy home favorite it's hard to buy Mixon this week outside of season-long formats as a flex play. The Browns are allowing just 3.2 yards per carry to running backs, but perhaps Mixon can do some damage as a pass catcher given that they've allowed 5.9 yards per target to backs.

For Cleveland, Corey Coleman and Duke Johnson are talented enough that you're firing them up in myriad season-long contexts, and I think they're both worth GPP consideration in DFS. Johnson could see more work than usual with Isaiah Crowell battling a bad shoulder, and if Coleman can produce against Jacksonville then you can't rule him out in what is a tough but still preferable matchup against the Bengals.

San Francisco vs. Seattle

Open: 42 O/U, SEA -6.5
Press time: 45 O/U, SEA -6.5

The rain in the forecast has me a bit nervous, but this otherwise shapes up as a superb matchup for Russell Wilson and the Seattle pass catchers. Kyle Shanahan's uptempo offense leaves opponents with more snaps than most opponents, and if the Seattle running backs continue to struggle that sets up Wilson for big volume both as a passer and runner. Doug Baldwin should murder San Francisco's slot coverage, and both Tyler Lockett and Paul Richardson should get plenty of opportunity, too, even if only one of the two is likely to see a big enough share percentage to please fantasy owners. As the singular red-zone threat among Seattle's pass catchers, Jimmy Graham projects very nicely despite his recent drop issues.

Aside from the rain, the biggest threat to Wilson's projection might actually be J.D. McKissic, who looks like he might actually be a capable runner for Seattle. He makes for a fine season-long start in leagues with 12 or more teams, and a totally viable GPP play in DFS.

For San Francisco, it's a bit much to expect fantasy production from C.J. Beathard, but maybe Marquise Goodwin can break a long touchdown with the Seahawks down all of Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor, and Shaq Griffin. Otherwise, the 49ers offense might make a good tournament play out of Carlos Hyde, who is facing a Seattle defense that might be without top linebacker Bobby Wagner. If Sherman, Chancellor, Griffin, and Wagner are all out, then Hyde's talent might shine through despite the tough reputation of the Seattle defense.

Oakland vs. Denver

Open: 44 O/U, OAK -4.5
Press time: 43 O/U, OAK -4.5

With a chance for rain and a certainty of Paxton Lynch starting, the Denver offense just might fail despite facing what might have been the worst defense in the league leading up to this week. I didn't like Lynch as a prospect, but he is a running threat, and whatever number of passes he throws should reliably channel to Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas. Whether those passes will be anywhere near on the mark is something anyone could guess as well as me.

C.J. Anderson and Devontae Booker more reliably project for production, but the workload split complicates each. Booker has all the momentum right now, in large part because of his excellent pass-catching production.

If you think Oakland can contain the Denver offense, it might set up for steady usage for Marshawn Lynch. While I think he's played very well this year, I still would hate the matchup enough for Lynch that I wouldn't have any interest in him outside of season-long leagues. If the Broncos offense collapses, though, perhaps Lynch could find himself in scoring range.

Derek Carr hasn't looked right for much of the year, and while the Patriots defense has been better of late, you can't like Carr a whole lot against these Denver corners, potentially in the rain. We of course bet against talents like Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree at our own risk, but I'll do it this week. Jared Cook has arguably the best projection among Oakland pass catchers against a Denver defense that's far more vulnerable to tight ends than receivers.

Arizona vs. Jacksonville

Open: 38 O/U, JAC -3.5
Press time: 38 O/U, JAC -5

Blaine Gabbert did better than expected last week. This week he might do worse than expected, even if we all expect him to do rather badly. The Houston pass defense is atrocious, yet Gabbert still threw two interceptions. I think the turnovers will be more numerous against the Jaguars, and without pretty much any of the positives from last week. The Jacksonville pass rush and corners are too much for almost any quarterback, and Gabbert probably hasn't seen anything like it in his career. Historically a quarterback who's easy to rattle, I would imagine the bottom falls out for the whole Arizona offense here.

That would set up as a good usage and field positioning scenario for Leonard Fournette, whose talent I'm entirely sold on, but it's hard to use him in DFS cash games given the matchup and his lingering ankle issue. He's a strong enough play in season-long and tournament formats, though.

Marqise Lee has been heavily targeted this year, so that volume gives him some floor at least. Whether he can do much at all against the likely coverage of Patrick Peterson is another question. I would give the advantage to Peterson, but that's just a suspicion. Perhaps Keelan Cole or Dede Westbrook can do something against the more vulnerable corners, but I wouldn't expect Jacksonville to throw enough times for either player to be more than a hail mary for fantasy owners.

Rams vs. New Orleans

Open: 53.5 O/U, LAR -2.5
Press time: 53.5 O/U, LAR -2

With Marshon Lattimore out, it's safe to say that whoever covers Sammy Watkins won't be able to keep up with him. The Rams have very rarely made him prominent in Jared Goff's read progressions, but with Robert Woods out they might finally be forced to throw the ball to their most talented receiver. Cooper Kupp will primarily face Kenny Vaccaro in the slot, the matchup from whom poses neither a clear positive nor negative, but Kupp's usage should be reliable with Woods out. If both Kupp and Watkins have good games, Goff should, too.

Todd Gurley has the strongest projection of arguably any player in this game, taking on a Saints defense that allows 4.3 yards per carry while funneling the fifth-most targets to opposing running backs. If Lattimore's absence allows for more easily sustained drives, it should solidify Gurley's odds of finding scoring opportunities.

The Saints running backs, of course, also project very well against a Rams defense allowing the third-most fantasy points to opposing running backs, and 4.5 yards per carry. Because so much of Alvin Kamara's production occurs as a pass catcher, there's almost never a scenario where a big game from Kamara would necessarily encroach on the odds of Mark Ingram posting big numbers.

The biggest question of this game for me is what to expect from Drew Brees, whose effectiveness seems about as strong as ever despite a shift in New Orleans' offensive approach limiting his volume. If this game is competitive from start to finish, might Brees need to throw the ball more often than he has in some of his team's easier games this year? If so, will he prove explosive against a Rams defense that's been tough against the pass this year? If Brees does have a big game, it would almost need to involve both Michael Thomas and Ted Ginn, since Brandon Coleman and Willie Snead don't participate much in the passing game. Whether Thomas, Ginn, and Brees can get much done against a Rams defense allowing 6.8 yards per pass attempt with 12 touchdowns allowed versus 11 interceptions is something I don't know how to guess. I'd generally give the advantage to Brees, but I'm not crazy about the idea of Thomas and Ginn being the only weapons against a good defense.

Pittsburgh vs. Green Bay

Open: 41.5 O/U, PIT -14.5
Press time: 43.5 O/U, PIT -14

I don't regard the Pittsburgh defense as highly as the Baltimore one, but the result for the Packers offense might be the same anyway. Brett Hundley just can't play, at least not right now. Receivers as good as Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams might be able to create something of value for fantasy owners, but it would take some good fortune none of us can count on. It would probably require that same good fortune to secure a sizable carry volume for Jamaal Williams, who would get a tough matchup draw even if he gets past 15 carries. The Steelers are allowing the fifth fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs, though they have allowed 4.3 yards per carry.

Things should be relatively easy sailing for the Pittsburgh offense, both because the Green Bay defense isn't imposing as well as the fact that the Steelers are likely to see favorable field positioning and time of possession. Le'Veon Bell might not be needed for four quarters, but his odds of scoring multiple times prior to that point have to be good, especially if Hundley continues to turn the ball over.

The threat of a non-competitive game could also limit the volume of Ben Roethlisberger, but the matchup is otherwise favorable. Green Bay's coverage has been poor this year, and even without Juju Smith-Schuster, Roethlisberger should find Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant open relatively often.

Baltimore vs. Houston

Open: 38 O/U, BAL -7
Press time: 38 O/U, BAL -7

Joe Flacco might have a nice game here due to the matchup – the Houston pass defense is pitiful, but its run defense is strong. If Baltimore is to validate its status as the favorite, it might take some success for Flacco to make it happen. Kareem Jackson has been throttled at slot corner, which bodes nicely for Jeremy Maclin. Mike Wallace should also see vulnerable coverage on the outside, but that's simply asking a bit more from Flacco.

Alex Collins might find the end zone here if Tom Savage turns the ball over or Baltimore otherwise sees short fields and big time of possession, but otherwise it's hard to see him generating yardage against a Houston defense that's allowed just 3.5 yards per carry. It's also difficult to see Danny Woodhead doing much against a defense allowing 5.3 yards per target to running backs.

For Houston, I'm out on pretty much everyone in DFS. DeAndre Hopkins' talent is so substantial that you're likely starting him in season-long formats, but I worry a Savage meltdown here might limit his opportunities. Bruce Ellington would see much more favorable coverage from the slot, though if a Savage meltdown occurs it would just as easily take down Ellington as Hopkins. Lamar Miller is playing very well right now, but it might take a disaster game from Flacco, giving short fields on turnovers, for Miller to provide much fantasy value outside of season-long leagues. The Ravens are allowing just 3.4 yards per carry in their last four games.