This article is part of our Survivor series.
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAVENS | Colts | 33.00% | 850 | 89.47% | 3.47 |
| PANTHERS | Buccaneers | 29.90% | 450 | 81.82% | 5.44 |
| CHIEFS | Dolphins | 12.10% | 450 | 81.82% | 2.20 |
| BEARS | Browns | 9.00% | 275 | 73.33% | 2.40 |
| PATRIOTS | Bills | 3.00% | 725 | 87.88% | 0.36 |
| Rams | TITANS | 3.00% | 275 | 73.33% | 0.80 |
| Steelers | TEXANS | 2.00% | 425 | 80.95% | 0.38 |
| EAGLES | Raiders | 1.50% | 385 | 79.38% | 0.31 |
| CARDINALS | Giants | 1.00% | 195 | 66.10% | 0.34 |
| Lions | BENGALS | 1.00% | 220 | 68.75% | 0.31 |
| Chargers | JETS | 0.70% | 310 | 75.61% | 0.17 |
| Vikings | PACKERS | 0.70% | 385 | 79.38% | 0.14 |
| COWBOYS | Seahawks | 0.70% | 220 | 68.75% | 0.22 |
| Browns | BEARS | 0.60% | 36.5 | 26.74% | 0.44 |
| REDSKINS | Broncos | 0.40% | 170 | 62.96% | 0.15 |
| Jaguars | 49ers | 0.30% | 210 | 67.74% | 0.10 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
There are four double-digit favorites (Ravens, Panthers, Patriots and Chiefs), and two favorites of nine or more (Steelers, Eagles), but I'm assuming you've used most of them already, so we'll go pretty deep.
My Picks
1. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are bullies, and a home game against the Colts is nearly as good as it gets. I give the Ravens a 91 percent chance to win this game.
2. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles have a backup QB, but Nick Foles played just fine on the road last week and faces one of the weakest defenses in the league. The Raiders might make a
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAVENS | Colts | 33.00% | 850 | 89.47% | 3.47 |
| PANTHERS | Buccaneers | 29.90% | 450 | 81.82% | 5.44 |
| CHIEFS | Dolphins | 12.10% | 450 | 81.82% | 2.20 |
| BEARS | Browns | 9.00% | 275 | 73.33% | 2.40 |
| PATRIOTS | Bills | 3.00% | 725 | 87.88% | 0.36 |
| Rams | TITANS | 3.00% | 275 | 73.33% | 0.80 |
| Steelers | TEXANS | 2.00% | 425 | 80.95% | 0.38 |
| EAGLES | Raiders | 1.50% | 385 | 79.38% | 0.31 |
| CARDINALS | Giants | 1.00% | 195 | 66.10% | 0.34 |
| Lions | BENGALS | 1.00% | 220 | 68.75% | 0.31 |
| Chargers | JETS | 0.70% | 310 | 75.61% | 0.17 |
| Vikings | PACKERS | 0.70% | 385 | 79.38% | 0.14 |
| COWBOYS | Seahawks | 0.70% | 220 | 68.75% | 0.22 |
| Browns | BEARS | 0.60% | 36.5 | 26.74% | 0.44 |
| REDSKINS | Broncos | 0.40% | 170 | 62.96% | 0.15 |
| Jaguars | 49ers | 0.30% | 210 | 67.74% | 0.10 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
There are four double-digit favorites (Ravens, Panthers, Patriots and Chiefs), and two favorites of nine or more (Steelers, Eagles), but I'm assuming you've used most of them already, so we'll go pretty deep.
My Picks
1. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are bullies, and a home game against the Colts is nearly as good as it gets. I give the Ravens a 91 percent chance to win this game.
2. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles have a backup QB, but Nick Foles played just fine on the road last week and faces one of the weakest defenses in the league. The Raiders might make a play or two on offense, but the Eagles defense should carry the day at home. I give the Eagles an 83 percent chance to win this game.
3. Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are tough on both sides of the ball, and the Packers have packed it in with Aaron Rodgers and probably Davante Adams shut down. But Brett Hundley and the two rookie backs still have plenty for which to play, and this is a road game against a familiar division rival. I give the Vikings an 80 percent chance to win this game.
4. Carolina Panthers
The Panthers are finally close to full strength with Greg Olsen back, and their defense is one of the better units in the league. The Bucs played well enough against the Falcons Monday night, but this is a short-week road game against a tough team. I give the Panthers a 79 percent chance to win this game.
5. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs have bounced back now that Andy Reid is committing to Kareem Hunt again, and the Dolphins defense can be exploited both on the ground and through the air. But Miami has played better the last few weeks, so this might not be a cakewalk. I give the Chiefs a 78 percent chance to win this game.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers are far better at home, and they're missing Antonio Brown, but the Texans are bad defensively, can't run the ball and are a one man show (DeAndre Hopkins) on offense. I give the Steelers a 77 percent chance to win this game.
7. New England Patriots
I actually picked them to lose in Beating the Book, but that's just a hunch I had when making up the score after taking the Bills to cover the spread. On the great likelihood my hunch is wrong, I'd certainly take New England over any of the teams below them on this list. I give the Patriots a 77 percent chance to win this game.
8. Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers had been playing as well as anyone in the season's second half until last week, and now they've lost a key piece in Hunter Henry. Still, they should handle a Jets squad that's starting Bryce Petty, even in the Meadowlands. I give the Chargers a 73 percent chance to win this game.
9. Chicago Bears
The Bears have been up and down all year, but a home game against the Browns is as easy as it gets. I give Chicago a 73 percent chance to win this game.
10. New Orleans Saints
I don't like picking in this rivalry, but the Saints are at home and are the better balanced team. I give New Orleans a 69 percent chance to win this game.
11. Arizona Cardinals
The Drew Stanton Cardinals are probably not your first choice, but the Giants defense has been one of the worst in the league, and Eli Manning's full season body of work is more predictive than last week's breakout. I give the Cardinals a 67 percent chance to win this game.
12. Washington Redskins
The Redskins have been a league-average team this year, but at home and facing the Brock Osweiler Broncos, they should handle their business. I give the Redskins a 65 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
Jacksonville Jaguars - I love the Jaguars this year, but the 49ers are playing well of late, and this is a late-afternoon west coast road game.
Los Angeles Rams - The Rams are much better than the Titans, but I have a bad feeling about this game, given the Rams are coming off a huge high after crushing the Seahawks in Seattle, and having to travel for an early body-clock game against a desperate opponent who will run the ball on them.
Dallas Cowboys - I don't trust Jason Garrett to put the pedal down, and that could come back to bite him against a team with the best fourth-quarter comeback QB in the game.
