This article is part of our PGA Tour Stats Review series.
$10 million. A season-ending points race. Flipped nines. It's a very interesting setup as we get ready for the Tour Championship, the final event in the 2015-16 PGA Tour season this week at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta. Here's our stats preview:
The 5 Who Control Their Destiny
My pick to win this week is Paul Casey. He just continues to trend in the right direction, finishing second at the last two events in Boston and Indianapolis and upping his season-long stats rankings to 20th for strokes gained–off the tee and 16th in approach to the green. And even his short game and putting rankings, which haven't been great, have seen improvements these last couple weeks, ranking 13th in putting in Boston.
Who am I most pessimistic about amongst the five? Jason Day. He withdrew from the BMW Championship with back pain and is only "cautiously optimistic" about this week, and said early in the week that he feels the pain from doing anything from picking up a tee to changing a diaper. This may also explain some of the errant shots in New York and Boston that left him ranked 72nd and 71st in strokes gained–off the tee respectively.
Dustin Johnson, meanwhile, won the BMW Championship on cruise control with his complete game working, ranking first in strokes gained–off the tee, 17th on approach to the green, 14th around the green and second in putting. Do that again and he's the FedEx Cup champ, Tour Champ and Player