FanDuel PGA: WGC-Mexico Championship
FanDuel PGA: WGC-Mexico Championship

This article is part of our FanDuel PGA series.

WGC-Mexico Championship

Club de Golf Chapultepec (7,345 yards, par-71)
$10.25M purse
$1,745,000 and 550 FedEx Cup points to the winner

Tournament Preview

The PGA Tour's West Coast Swing is in the rearview as Mexico City now plays host to the WGC-Mexico Championship for a third straight year since the event's move from Doral in 2017. A robust field of 72 entrants including 45 of the top-50 players in the Official World Golf Rankings will be in attendance at the Club de Golf Chapultepec, where chants of 'Kuuuch' may evolve into boos following his questionable antics with fill-in caddie El Tucan back at the Mayakoba Golf Classic. Storylines aside, the weather shouldn't be much of a factor as high temperatures close in on the 80-degree mark while the wind is expected to remain at or below a one-club breeze.

Recent Past Champions

2018 - Phil Mickelson
2017 - Dustin Johnson
2016 - Adam Scott
2015 - Dustin Johnson
2014 - Patrick Reed
2013 - Tiger Woods
2012 - Justin Rose
2011 - Nick Watney
2010 - Ernie Els
2009 - Phil Mickelson

Key Stats to Victory

Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Putting
Birdie or Better percentage
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green

Champion's Profile

As the Club de Golf Chapultepec reaches nearly 8,000 feet above sea level, its elevation provides the field's shorter hitters with a chance to contend as the course plays well below its 7,345-yard layout indicates. Players will be able to leave their driver in the bag on occasion as six par-4s measure less than 415 yards, so managing distance on approach shots becomes paramount in order to hone in from a proximity standpoint. Last year each of the top-3 finishers in putting average also landed 1-2-T3 on the overall leaderboard, indicating a need to putt well on poa annua as the greens become rough and bumpy. Nine entrants were able to rack up 20 or more par-breakers in 2018, so birdie or better percentage lands among our key stats given its heightened importance in DFS formats as well.

FanDuel Value Picks

The Chalk

Justin Thomas, $12,000 - Thomas has earned the most expensive price tag on the board this week as he leads the PGA Tour in SG: Tee-to-Green, SG: Approach and par-5 scoring, but he'll need to combat the physical and mental fatigue accompanying a disappointing second-place finish at Riviera. He also notched runner-up honors at the Club de Golf Chapultepec in 2018 when he lost in a playoff to Phil Mickelson.

Dustin Johnson, $11,900 - Evenly matched with Thomas at the top in terms of betting odds, Johnson won in Mexico City two years ago when Chapultepec was first used for the event. He led the field in par-5 scoring, racked up 23 par-breakers and ranked T11 or better in putting average and GIR percentage en route to his 2017 victory. Last week at the Genesis, Johnson ranked seventh in scrambling and birdied three of his final five holes to ultimately finish top-10.

Rickie Fowler, $11,400 - Coming off a much-needed win at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, Fowler didn't have to deal with the circus at Riviera as he should be fresh in Mexico this week. He's rejoined the OWGR's top-10 and ranks fifth on Tour in both SG: Putting and birdie average.

Xander Schauffele, $11,100 - Schauffele nearly missed the cut at Riviera CC last week before playing his final three rounds in a combined nine-under-par, ranking 13th in SG: Tee-to-Green on the way to a top-15 result. He's already won twice this season against elite competition at the Sentry Tournament of Champions and WGC-HSBC Champions, as he currently resides at No. 7 in the OWGR. The leader in the FedExCup standings ranks third in SG: Total, third in scrambling and eighth in putting from inside 10 feet.

Longer Shots Worth a Risk

Rafael Cabrera-Bello, $9,900 - The Spaniard collected back-to-back top-25s on poa annua greens at Pebble Beach and Riviera, rising to 14th in par-4 scoring and 35th in SG: Putting. Cabrera-Bello finished just one stroke shy of joining Thomas and Mickelson in last year's playoff at Chapultepec, as the former ranked second in putting average and carded a pair of eagles.

Webb Simpson, $9,800 - Simpson has gathered six consecutive top-20 finishes dating back to the BMW Championship, though he's only pegged it twice thus far in 2019. Nonetheless, he's second on Tour in SG: Approach, 12th in SG: Tee-to-Green and first in par-4 scoring.

Ian Poulter, $9,500 - Poulter was red-hot throughout the European Tour's Desert Swing, placing T6-T3-T6 from the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship through the Saudi International. He'll be making his first ever trip to the Club de Golf Chapultepec, but the Englishman ranks seventh in both SG: Around-the-Green and GIR percentage.

Abraham Ancer, $8,400 - Ancer will have the crowd behind him as Mexico's highest-ranked golfer, though he'll also need to deal with the pressure that comes from joining Tiger Woods in a featured group. Ancer bounced back from missed cuts at the WMPO and Farmers Insurance Open with a T44 at the Genesis Open, where he tied for 10th in driving accuracy. The 27-year-old ranks ninth in SG: Off-the-Tee and seventh in proximity this season.

Strategy Tips for this week (based on 60k standard salary cap)

Expect international players in the bottom price ranges to naturally draw reduced ownership if you're looking for a contrarian edge, but this is for good reason as a household name wins this event more often than not with such a potent concentration of A-list players in the field. Figuring out distance control with irons and comfortability with the flat stick on poa annua take precedence over just being able to nuke it off the tee at Chapultepec.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Bryce Danielson
Bryce covers the PGA for RotoWire and provides input on the golf cheat sheet. He also contributes to the coverage for NFL, NBA and other sports.
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