BMW Championship Betting Preview
St. Louis, Missouri
Bellerive Country Club - Par 70 - 7,448 yards
Field - 50 entrants
Purse - $20M
The BMW Championship returns to Bellerive Country Club in St. Louis for the second leg of the FedExCup Playoffs. Only the Top 50 players remain and everyone has their eyes set on cracking the Top 30 to land a spot at next week's TOUR Championship. With the way the format is now, once you get to East Lake everyone starts from scratch and the low man over 72 holes will be crowned the FedExCup Champion for 2026.
We last saw Bellerive back at the 2018 PGA Championship won by Brooks Koepka who held off a strong charge from Tiger Woods. The St. Louis course is a straightforward Par 70 that can stretch over 7,400 yards. While the course is on the longer end, there are no real tricks. Everything is right in front of you and it will all be about who executes the shots the best. The greens are the third-largest on the PGA Tour this season, which will make putting extremely important and lower the importance of short game.
A look back to the 2018 PGA Championship leaderboard, also contested in August, shows us that a number of players near the top of the leaderboard were long-hitters who were also strong iron players. Koepka, Woods, Jon Rahm, Adam Scott and Gary Woodland all fall into that category who finished T6 or better that week. Expect length to be favored over accuracy, as opposed to last week at TPC Southwind where the fairways were more narrow and rough was more penal.
Let's get into my favorite plays on the board for this week's BMW Championship.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 11:30 AM ET Wednesday
BMW Championship Bets: Outright Picks
Sam Burns To Win (+1750)
Burns as the No. 5 option on the board doesn't make sense to me. He was No. 2 in my model this week and moved up to No. 3 on DataGolf after his fourth top-4 finish in his last six starts a week ago in Memphis. Sure he hasn't won since 2023, but he checks every box we are looking for at Bellerive. Burns ranks second in SG: Approach last 20 rounds, sixth in SG: Putting last 20 rounds and first in SG: Putting on Bentgrass over the last 18 months.
Wyndham Clark To Win (30-1)
Clark is another player who is way too low on the board for how hot he has been this summer. The now two-time U.S. Open champion has racked up seven top-15 finishes since mid-May, including last week in Memphis where he finished T5 on a golf course that didn't really fit his game. Bellerive is much more up his alley as a place he will be able to bomb it over a lot of the trouble. Clark is fourth in SG: Putting last 20 rounds, third in birdie average, first in par-3 scoring and first in putts per GIR.
Michael Brennan To Win (55-1)
Brennan's biggest weakness this season has been short game, but that won't be very signficant this week on a course with greens that are this big. Every other part of Brennan's game has been in great form of late. He is first in SG: Off-the-Tee last 12 months, first in proximity 200+ yards last six months and third in SG: Putting last 20 rounds. Bellerive is a lot more similar to places like TPC Twin Cities, Detroit Golf Club and Sedgefield where he had opportunities to win, as opposed to TPC Southwind last week where he finished T34.
BMW Championship Bets: Placement Wagers
Jake Knapp Top 5 Finish (+560)
Knapp most certainly would have been in the mix for a Presidents Cup pick had it not been for a left wrist/thumb injury after his brilliant start to 2026. It has been a challenge to get the game back on track, but it appears he is close after a T13 at the 3M Open and a T7 in Memphis. That brings his total to 9 top-15 finishes this season and Bellerive seems like a perfect place for another high finish. Knapp ranks top 5 in this field in SG: Putting Large Greens over the last 18 months and SG: Approach Large Greens over the last 12 months. He is also No. 1 in BOB% Long Courses over the last 18 months.
Gary Woodland Top 10 Finish (+375)
Woodland already has five top-10 finishes this season to put him just on spot out of the Top 30 entering the BMW Championship. He is one of a handful of players who played in the 2018 PGA Championship at Bellerive. Woodland led after 18 and 36 holes that week before settling for a T6 finish. He is still one of the longest hitters on the PGA Tour and ranks 11th on Tour in total driving. Large bentgrass greens are where Woodland has had the most success with the putter over the last 18 months.
Ryan Fox Top 20 Finish (+184)
The Champion Golfer of the Year also was in the field back in 2018 and scored a T27 finish behind some stellar ball striking. Fox fits the mold of a bomber who also excels on the greens. He ranks third on the PGA Tour in Par 4 BOB%, which should be key given this course has a very tricky set of par-3s and two very long par-5s. Fox has gained strokes on approach in seven of his last eight starts as well. A top-20 finish should definitely be in the cards in this 50-man field.
BMW Championship Bets: Tournament Matchups
Collin Morikawa (-110) over Justin Thomas
Morikawa probably isn't the ideal course fit as a shorter hitter, but this pick is more based on a complete fade of Thomas. Morikawa was the 9th ranked player in my model this week, while JT came out 39th. Morikawa is one of the best iron players in this field and has gained strokes on the greens in five of his last six starts. Thomas on the other hand is 48th of 50 players in this field in SG: Approach over his 20 rounds. Really the only area he is doing anything well right now is around the greens, but that's going to be a very hard area to separate in given how large the greens are.
Sam Burns (-114) over Ludvig Aberg
We are going to double down on Burns this week in this tournament matchup against Aberg. Things feel close for Aberg coming off two straight top-10s, but 44th out of 50 players in SG: Putting over the last 20 rounds is hard to look past. He's also just 42nd in this field in SG: Approach off Zoysia fairways over the last five years. Burns hits all the boxes we are looking for at Bellerive as a long hitter, who is red hot both on approach and with the putter. Don't overthink this one.
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