FedEx St. Jude Championship Betting Preview
Memphis, Tennessee
TPC Southwind - Par 70 - 7,288 yards
Field - 69 entrants
Purse - $20M
While the PGA Tour questionably "rewards" its FedExCup Playoffs qualifiers with a mid-August trip to the sweltering heat in Memphis, TPC Southwind actually serves as a pretty sensational venue that features not only narrow and tree-lined fairways, but also a plethora of water hazards that produce organic drama. It's one of the rare layouts that still requires driving precision, setting players up for an approach proximity battle, primarily from 100-200 yards out. Chipping from zoysia and putting on these resurfaced bermuda greens make short-game conundrums much simpler than the average Tour stop, so this truly becomes a second-shot contest given trouble is avoided off the tee. World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler looms as a heavy favorite atop the betting board, but we'll dive into several formidable challengers within a handful of markets.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 3:30 PM ET Wednesday
FedEx St. Jude Championship Bets: Outright Picks
Collin Morikawa (28-1)
While surrounding names like Sam Burns, Hideki Matsuyama and Patrick Cantlay gain a ton of steam, a player of Morikawa's merit becomes more enticing at a similar cost. He's notoriously accurate off the tee, and Morikawa ranks second on Tour in SG: Approach this season. Additionally, he's gained at least 2.48 strokes with the flat stick in five straight starts.
Viktor Hovland (37-1)
Given the fact that he just took down Scottie Scheffler to win the Travelers Championship in late June, this is quite an affordable price to tap back into Hovland's ceiling while dismissing the pain associated with his potential floor outcomes. A complete ejection destroys your DFS lineup, but it pays the exact same (zilch) as second place in this market. Hovland is fourth in SG: APP, fifth in Prox: 150-200, sixth in Prox: 100-150 and seventh in total driving over his last 16 rounds. The ball-striking profile is worthy of an outright number that's much closer to 20-1 than it is to 40-1, and he's even made major improvements with his short game around the green this year.
FedEx St. Jude Championship Bets: Top-10 Wagers
Tom Kim (+375)
Kim's irons stayed hot en route to a T5 at last week's Wyndham Championship, where he also gained a season-high 6.32 strokes with the putter on the way to 22 total birdies. Kim is second to none in SG: APP over his last 50 rounds, and he's eighth in driving accuracy over his past 24.
Akshay Bhatia (+540)
Bhatia's odds have cratered after posting back-to-back missed cuts at The Open Championship and the Rocket Classic, but he actually gained 3.62 strokes on approach in Detroit, and he's not too far removed from a T5 at the Travelers Championship where he paced the Signature Event in total feet of putts made while averaging six birdies per round. Albeit a limited sample, he's been a fan of TPC Southwind with finishes of T6-T12 in his first two career appearances here.
FedEx St. Jude Championship Bets: Tournament Matchups
Rickie Fowler (-112) over Maverick McNealy
I have both pro-Fowler and anti-McNealy stances this week, so finding Fowler as a small underdog to McNealy's -118 in this tournament matchup was extremely convenient. McNealy primarily relies on his short game while lacking almost any upside in the ball-striking department, which isn't a very promising recipe for TPC Southwind. Fowler can definitely be a bit more volatile, but he's coming off a T15-T18-T8 stretch from the John Deere Classic through the Rocket Classic, notably ascending to second in DFCF (Distance From Center of Fairway), 11th in Prox: 150-200, 13th in Prox: 100-150 and 15th in GIR percentage over his last 24 rounds. Fowler tied for sixth here last year when he finished fifth among the field in SG: Ballstriking.
Jordan Spieth (-114) over Harris English
Can Spieth beat 68 other guys? Absolutely not. Can Spieth beat English's current form more than 53.3 percent of the time? Certainly. Not only has English's putter completely betrayed him since late June, but he also lost a combined 10.5 strokes on approach during his recent T71-MC run at the Rocket Classic and the Wyndham Championship. He has missed the cut in four of six starts dating back to an early trunk slam at the U.S. Open, dropping to 64th in SG: Ballstriking over his last 16 rounds. Spieth's driving accuracy is a concern, but he just tied for 19th at Sedgefield Country Club where he hit 78 percent of the greens in regulation. Nevertheless, this is much more of an English fade than a Spieth target.
FedEx St. Jude Championship Bets: Top Canadian
Corey Conners (+120)
Hideki Matsuyama came through for us in the Top Japanese market last week, and I find Conners to be in a similar spot here against just two other Canadian countrymen that might not be all that competitive over the course of four guaranteed rounds. Sudarshan Yellamaraju has completely lost the early-season form that ultimately landed him a spot in the playoffs, notching four missed cuts to go along with a T52 throughout his past five outings. Nick Taylor has gone nine consecutive starts without a single top-20 result, plummeting to 68th of 69 in SG: Tee-to-Green over his last 36 rounds. Meanwhile, Conners has collected four top-25s in six starts dating back to a T23 at the U.S. Open, and he's ninth in SG: APP over his last 24 rounds.
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