TOUR Championship Betting Preview
Atlanta, Georgia
East Lake Golf Club - Par 70 - 7,440 yards
Field - 30 entrants
Purse - $40M
Thirty players remain for the grand finale of the FedExCup Playoffs, as Atlanta's East Lake Golf Club once again plays host to the TOUR Championship and its $40M purse. But after more than half the field finished in double-digit red numbers here last year, I'd expect a somewhat more difficult setup attempt this time around, with thicker bermuda rough accompanying already intimidating water hazards around this nearly 7,500-yard par-70 layout. Nonetheless, this talented contingent of qualifiers is headlined by World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, who's nearing full strength after hand, foot and mouth disease plagued him at Bellerive. We'll take a look at several potential contenders before also discussing a couple tournament matchups, as well as a Top Region play.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 3:30 PM ET Wednesday
TOUR Championship Bets: Outright Picks
Wyndham Clark (+1650)
After picking up his third victory in as many months at last week's BMW Championship, it wouldn't have been jarring to see Clark fly up to the fourth spot on the outright odds board behind the Scheffler/McIlroy/Schauffele elites this week, but Clark is still looking up at names like Ludvig Aberg, Sam Burns and Cameron Young. Clark has gained 9.8 strokes on approach throughout the first two legs of the FedExCup Playoffs, and he's second to none in SG: Putting over his last 24 rounds.
Collin Morikawa (+2100)
Morikawa's accuracy off the tee should help him avoid the penal bermuda rough that lines East Lake's fairways, and he's No. 1 in both total driving and DFEF (Distance From Edge of Fairway) over his past 20 rounds. He's coming off a T4 at Bellerive where he ranked sixth in SG: Ballstriking, notably finishing third in fairway proximity and fifth in Fwy Prox: 200-plus. More surprisingly, Morikawa has actually gained at least 2.5 strokes with the putter in six of his last seven starts.
TOUR Championship Bets: Top-5 Wagers
Patrick Cantlay (+290)
Cantlay's irons have been on fire during a T8-T12-2nd run from the Rocket Classic through the BMW Championship, surging to the No. 1 spot in both SG: Tee-to-Green and SG: Approach over his last 12 rounds. A shaky putter might continue to keep him from the very top of the podium, but such stellar ballstriking can certainly carry Cantlay to another top-5 result.
Tom Kim (+690)
Not even Scottie Scheffler has been as good as Kim from a SG: APP perspective over the last six months, and Kim's long-iron prowess was just on display at the BMW Championship where he ranked No. 1 among the field in Fwy Prox: 200-225 and ninth in Fwy Prox: 175-200 en route to a 70.8 GIR percentage, despite ranking just 46th in driving distance. This +690 number on a top-5 feels out of sync with Kim's admirable recent form, and he's second in SG: Putting on bermuda greens over the last 12 months (24-round sample).
TOUR Championship Bets: Tournament Matchups
Justin Rose (-122) over Min Woo Lee
Lee's runner-up effort at the Genesis Scottish Open seems like an anomaly amidst a slump from the Memorial Tournament through the BMW Championship, given that's his only top-40 finish across his past seven outings. He lost a whopping 12.5 strokes with his ballstriking throughout the first eight rounds of the FedExCup Playoffs, even ranking just 49th of 50 in SG: APP last week at Bellerive. On the other hand, Rose owns infinitely more East Lake experience, and he just gained 3.3 strokes with his irons in St. Louis where he paced the field in Fwy Prox: 200-plus as well.
Sam Burns (-120) over Cameron Young
Jacob Bridgeman makes a case, but Burns is probably the best putter in this field, while Young has looked completely lost with the flat stick since the start of June. Additionally, Burns just ranked top-10 at the BMW Championship in both SG: APP and overall proximity, claiming the No. 1 spot in SG: APP over his last 24 rounds. Alongside his putter, Young's irons have gone cold during the playoffs, plummeting to 26th of 30 in SG: APP over these past eight rounds.
TOUR Championship Bets: Top Oceania
Adam Scott (+138)
We already made the bear case for Min Woo Lee, leaving Ryan Fox as Scott's only remaining challenger in this small regional market. Since becoming a major champion at Royal Birkdale, Fox has placed T58-T47 in two limited fields, ranking 29th of 30 in both driving accuracy and SG: Putting during this post-win stretch. On the flip side, Scott is second in total driving and SG: Off-the-Tee throughout the playoffs thus far, and he just ranked top-5 in each of SG: APP, GIR percentage and overall proximity at Bellerive.
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