BMW Championship
Course: Bellerive Country Club (7,448 yards, par 70)
Purse: $20,000,000
Winner: $3,600,000 and 750 FedExCup Points
Tournament Preview
The second leg of the FedExCup Playoffs takes the PGA Tour to St. Louis and Bellerive Country Club for the BMW Championship. Only the Top 50 in the standings made it to this point, all of which know they will be locked into all the Signature Events in the 2027 season. The next goal is to make the Top 30 which means an invite to the TOUR Championship at East Lake and a shot at the $10 million top prize for winning the FedExCup. All players who make the TOUR Championship will have an equal shot at winning the season-long crown and will also be assured of a spot in all four major championships in 2027. The fight for the Top 30 is extremely close with No. 28 Kurt Kitayama, No. 29 Bud Cauley, No. 30 Rickie Fowler and No. 31 Gary Woodland all separated by less than three FedExCup points. Big names like Patrick Cantlay (43rd) and Justin Thomas (44th), along with PGA Championship winner Aaron Rai (37th) will be hoping for a top finish to be able to break into the field next week at East Lake.
Scottie Scheffler proved to anyone doubting him that he is still the unquestioned best player in the world with an absolutely dominating eight-shot victory at the first playoff event last week in Memphis. It snapped a 16-event winless streak for Scheffler and helped put to bed months of coming up agonizingly close in some of the biggest tournaments of the year. He won his season debut at The American Express and then collected 10 top-4 finishes, including five runner-ups, prior to finally breaking through last week at the FedEx St. Jude Championship.
Scheffler continues to build an extremely strong case for why despite his lack of trophies that he should be crowned Player of the Year for a fifth consecutive season. He is miles clear of any other player SG: Total, scoring average and FedExCup points. That said, sometimes the pure numbers are not what all players value when they are asked to vote on the award. Matt Fitzpatrick and Chris Gotterup both have one more win, while Cameron Young and Wyndham Clark both also have two victories on the year, but one of which happens to be THE PLAYERS for Young and the U.S. Open for Clark. Nevertheless, these last two events could still go a long way in deciding that race, but would it really surprise anyone if Scheffler just ran the table in the playoffs? If his game is anywhere close to what it was last week it's hard to see anyone taking him down right now.
Brian Harman talked last week in an interview that there are always tournaments within tournaments on the PGA Tour. No matter who you are, well sans Scottie Scheffler, you are on the bubble of something. We've already talked about a couple races happening along with just winning the actual BMW Championship this week, but one that has generated a lot of attention in recent weeks is the battle to make the Presidents Cup team. After the final putt drops on Sunday at Bellerive, the top six American players in points will assured of a spot on Captain Brandt Snedeker's team heading to Medinah in late September. Scheffler, Cameron Young, Sam Burns and Russell Henley seem to be in a great spot, but the battle for the final two automatic qualifying spots are quite close. Ben Griffin and Collin Morikawa hold them as of now, but Wyndham Clark, Chris Gotterup, Xander Schauffele and J.J. Spaun are all right there.
On the International side of things, they use the OWGR to determine their six automatic qualifiers, but that will be finalized immediately after the TOUR Championship. Si Woo Kim, Ryan Fox, Hideki Matsuyama, Min Woo Lee and Tom Kim all appear to be locks. Adam Scott holds the final spot for now, but Corey Conners, Nico Echavarria and Sungjae Im could all jump in with a strong close to the season. International Captain Geoff Ogilvy, along with U.S. Captain Snedeker, will select their six captain's picks the week after the TOUR Championship.
Safe to say there is a ton to play for this week in St. Louis. Bellerive Country Club will host the BMW Championship for the second time (2008). It also previously hosted three major championships: the 1965 U.S. Open won by Gary Player, the 1992 PGA Championship won by Nick Price and most recently the 2018 PGA Championship won by Brooks Koepka by two strokes over a hard charging Tiger Woods. Bellerive is also slated to host the 2030 Presidents Cup.
After a dreadfully hot week in Memphis, things will cool down a bit in St. Louis. Daytime highs will be in the mid-80s throughout the tournament, but that's quite the reprieve from what the area has dealt with in recent weeks. There's always a chance we could see a stray storm whip through, but for now it appears things should stay dry apart from some showers Wednesday morning. Koepka shot 16-under when he won here at the PGA back in 2018, but it looks like the course should be firmer this week.
Recent Champions
2025 - Scottie Scheffler (-15) at Caves Valley
2024 - Keegan Bradley (-12) at Castle Pines
2023 - Viktor Hovland (-17) at Olympia Fields
2022 - Patrick Cantlay (-14) at Wilmington
2021 - Patrick Cantlay (-27) at Caves Valley
2020 - Jon Rahm (-4) at Olympia Fields
2019 - Justin Thomas (-25) at Medinah
2018 - Keegan Bradley (-20) at Aronimink
2017 - Marc Leishman (-23) at Conway Farms
2016 - Dustin Johnson (-23) at Crooked Stick
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Approach/Proximity
- SG: Off-the-Tee/Driving Distance
- SG: Putting Bentgrass/3-Putt Avoidance
- Par 4 Scoring/Birdie or Better Percentage
Champion's Profile
Bellerive is the type of course that PGA Tour pros love. Everything is right in front of you. There's really no blind shots or tricks, it is simply a test of execution. In 2018 the top of the leaderboard was littered with a common type of player. Strong guys who can bomb it, but who also are quality mid-to-long iron players. Brooks Koepka (1st), Tiger Woods (2nd), Adam Scott (3rd), Jon Rahm (T4), Thomas Pieters (T6) and Gary Woodland (T6) all fall into that category. When that many archetypes finish at the top of the board it's not coincidence, it's a trend.
While that is somewhat the makeup of the player we are looking for, there are certainly plenty of other key stats to consider. The guys who have been hot with the putter of late will be prime targets. Also SG: Putting on Bentgrass and 3-putt Avoidance on what are the third-largest greens on the PGA Tour schedule. This is also a very long course as a Par 70 at stretching well over 7,400 yards. Strokes gained on long courses and strokes gained on Par 4s should be key as well
Because of how large the putting greens are and how friendly Zoysia fairways typically are, I am pretty out on most SG: Around-the-Green and scrambling numbers. There's a couple players who I will highlight below whose one weakness has been short game. That style of player who does everything else well could be prime targets given the lack of opportunities there will be to separate around these greens.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Scottie Scheffler ($15,600)
Scheffler either first or very close to it in pretty much every stat I included in my model this week. Safe to say nobody ended up anywhere near the No. 1 player in the world, just as we saw a week ago when he ran away from the field by eight shots. Scheffler is the defending winner of the BMW Championship after getting the job done at Caves Valley last year. He's going to be extremely hard for any of these 49 golfers to beat this week, especially if he putts anything close to what he did a week ago.
Sam Burns ($11,900)
Burns was the No. 2 player in my model and is seeking his first win since 2023. Bellerive figures to be an excellent venue for him. Burns fits the profile perfectly as a bomber who has been trending both on approach and with the putter. He is 2nd in SG: Approach over his last 20 rounds, 6th in SG: Putting over his last 20 rounds and 1st in SG: Putting on Bentgrass over the last 18 months. Burns has been T20 or better in his last six starts, including a quartet of top-4 finishes. He has also gone T4-T2 the last two years at the BMW Championship.
Xander Schauffele ($11,400)
It probably hasn't been quite the season that Schauffele would have been hoping for, but he has threatened on a handful of occasions, including his last two starts at the Rocket Classic (2nd) and FedEx St. Jude Championship (T7). Schauffele ranked No. 3 in my model thanks to his strengths off the tee. He is also top 5 in this field in SG: Par 4 over the last 12 months and SG: Approach from Zoysia Fairways over the last 5 years. Schauffele has finished T8 or better in three of his last four starts at the BMW Championship.
The Middle Tier
Wyndham Clark ($10,100)
Clark checks in a bit lower than I expected this week. He has been so strong this summer with seven top-15 finishes, including two victories, since mid-May. Clark finished T5 at a course I thought didn't suit him well at all in TPC Southwind last week, but Bellerive should be a much better fit. He'll be able to carry some of the fairway bunkers and rely on his strong iron play and red-hot putter. Clark ranks fourth in SG: Putting over the last 20 rounds, third in birdie average, first in par-3 scoring and first in putts per GIR this season. He just knows how to go low, which is what you want in DFS.
Kurt Kitayama ($9,600)
Kitayama has had a really nice season and is on the brink of making the TOUR Championship, but he is still searching for that signature moment. It could very well come this week on a course that should play into his strengths. Kitayama ranks top 20 on Tour in par-4 scoring, total driving, SG: Approach and GIR percentage. The putter has been the biggest issue this season, but bentgrass has far and away been his best surface.
Michael Brennan ($9,300)
Brennan is such an interesting option for me. He is dead last in this field in SG: Around-the-Green and scrambling this season, but with these huge greens at Bellerive, short game should be neutralized to some degree. Everything else of late has been very strong. Brennan ranks first in SG: Off-the-Tee over the last 12 months, first in proximity from 200+ yards and third in SG: Putting over the last 20 rounds. This course has more similarities to TPC Twin Cities, Detroit Golf Club and Sedgefield where Brennan played great than TPC Southwind last week.
The Long Shots
Gary Woodland ($7,700)
Woodland is one of a handful of players in this field who teed it up at the 2018 PGA Championship here at Bellerive. He played quite well too, as he held the 36-hole lead and ultimately finished T6. Much like Brennan, Woodland's main issue this season has been around the greens, but that shouldn't be a big factor here. Woodland is still one of the longest hitters in the field and ranks 11th on Tour in total driving. He is also top 8 in SG: Putting Bentgrass, SG: Putting Large Greens and 3-putt Avoidance Large Greens over the last 18 months. This is a great spot for him to have a strong finish and clinch a spot at East Lake.
Alex Smalley ($7,400)
Smalley is one of the most well-rounded players on the PGA Tour. He is gaining strokes across the board and ranks in the top third of the membership in pretty much every key category. The best area of his game is probably iron play where he ranks top 30 on Tour in SG: Approach, GIR percentage and proximity. Smalley is also eighth in birdie or better percentage on par-4s this season, a key thing to look at on this par 70 where scoring is very difficult on par-3s and par-5s.
Ryan Fox ($6,600)
The Champion Golfer of the Year is way down here in the mid-$6K range, but I really do like the fit for Bellerive. For one he did compete here back in 2018 finishing T27 behind an excellent ball striking week. His combination of distance and putting is optimal for this type of test. Fox also ranks third on Tour in Par 4 BOB%. He snapped a streak of seven straight events gaining strokes on approach last week in Memphis, but the form with the scoring clubs has been there the last few months.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
It's no secret that taking Scottie Scheffler ($15,600) is going to put you in a tough position to fill out the rest of your lineup, but it is doable with FanDuel expanding to a $6K range again this week. The other route would be to go with as many as four $10K+ players and really raise the floor of your team. It's all a personal preference. Scheffler is going to be extremely high owned regardless, but it's almost impossible to see him not being in the mix come Sunday.
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