BMW Championship One and Done Picks
Only the Top 50 players in the FedExCup qualified for this week's BMW Championship and they know they will be apart of all the Signature Events in 2027. The focus now shifts to the Top 30 cutoff where players will look to position themselves to ensure a spot at the TOUR Championship. All players who make it to East Lake will be locked into all four majors next season and have an equal chance at taking home the FedExCup title for 2026.
These last two weeks will be significant for OAD leagues, as the BMW Championship features another $20 million purse, while the TOUR Championship will be a whopping $40 million. You could see some big swings depending on your league settings. The pick availability feature could also be huge for game theory to see who some of your league mates have left in the chamber with just two events left.
Our RotoWire Golf Experts will give you their picks for the week and also tell you who to fade for this week's BWM Championship at Bellerive Country Club.
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Course Tidbits
- Course: Bellerive Country Club (7,448 yards, par 70)
- Location: St. Louis, Missouri
- Purse: $20 million -- $3.6 million to winner
- Defending Champion: Scottie Scheffler (-15)
- 2025 Scoring Average at Caves Valley: 70.426 (+0.426)
- 2025 36-Hole Cut: No Cut Event
- Average Winning Score Last 5 Years at BMW Championship: -17
We last saw Bellerive Country Club back in 2018 at the PGA Championship when it was Brooks Koepka who held off Tiger Woods to win his first of three Wanamaker Trophies. Koepka won by two strokes at 16-under-par. That event was also in August, so we should expect similar scoring conditions this week, although the setup crew is hoping the fairways and greens are a little bit firmer than what they were in 2018 when heavy rains affected the event.
Bellerive is a lengthy course as a Par 70 that can stretch to over 7,400 yards. The par-3s are very challenging and the two par-5s are both extremely long. That means that most of your score this week is going to have to be made on the par-4s, which really vary quite a bit in terms of length. Water will also come into play on nearly half the holes, so players will need to be on their toes.
When we look at that leaderboard from 2018, there were a number of players near the top who fell into the category of big/strong bomber who also are quality mid-to-long iron players. Koepka, Woods, Adam Scott, Jon Rahm and Gary Woodland were all T6 or better and could be categorized as such. Expect the bombers to have a much bigger advantage at Bellerive than they did at TPC Southwind last week. There are a lot of fairway bunkers out there that the longest guys can completely take out of play, and the rough is not as difficult as that bermudagrass at Southwind was.
The big thing to watch at Bellerive is the greens. They average 7,500 square feet, making them the third-largest of the season. The challenge on approach will not necessarily be finding the putting surface, but getting it in the correct quadrant to setup a makable birdie opportunity. Putting should also be crucial and we can target the top putters on bentgrass. 3-putt avoidance could also prove to be important on these massive surfaces. A high average GIR percentage for the field should also lead to fewer opportunities to gain and lose strokes around the greens.
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RotoWire One and Done Tools
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BMW Championship: One and Done Picks
I'm not liking this pick. I have two big names left and the other is Scheffler. I guess I'm saving him for next week, as winning two in a row might be a bit much. Make no mistake, Morikawa has had a very good season. He sits ninth in points and has a win and six top-10s. But it's a heavily front-loaded season, with the win in February and only one top-10 since April (T3 Travelers). Morikawa is ranked 10th on Tour in driving accuracy and first in SG: Approach, so, in theory, Bellerive should be a great fit. But there's been something missing the past few months. --Len Hochberg
It's not every year that you get to these final few events with players that you love, but I've felt pretty good about my picks in the playoffs to this point. This week it's Burns, who has had a really good season, but he's failed to seal the deal on the weekend. It happened again this past weekend, but in all fairness to Burns, no one was beating Scheffler on Sunday. This event has hopped all over the place in recent years, but Burns has somehow navigate every new course and this week should be no exception. Though he didn't finish well in Memphis, I still think his overall form is good enough to contend again at the BMW. --Greg Vara
This was an easy selection for me as Burns was one of just two top-15 ranked players I had remaining and he was also the No. 2 player in my model behind Scheffler. Burns is an elite course fit due to his length, putting ability and current form on approach. He ranks second in this field in SG: Approach over the last 20 rounds, six in SG: Putting over the last 20 rounds and he is No. 1 in SG: Putting on bentgrass over the last 18 months. Burns has moved all the way up to No. 3 in the DataGolf rankings after his fourth top-4 finish in his last six starts. He has also finished T4 and T2 the last two years at the BMW Championship. Burns has had more than his fair share of close calls the last couple years, but if ever there were to be a spot that he was going to pick up his first win since 2023, Bellerive would be it. --Ryan Andrade
Especially in larger pools, you might desperately need a win from a low-owned dart throw to make any sort of meaningful move in the standings if you're playing from further back in the pack. That's where someone like Kitayama's ball-striking ceiling comes into play, though he's quietly gained 5.83 strokes with the putter throughout his last four starts as well. Over his past 20 rounds, Kitayama ranks first in Distance From the Center of the Fairway, fifth in carry distance and fifth in proximity from 200-250 yards. --Bryce Danielson
Gotterup didn't fare too well in this event in 2025, but it's a whole new year and he's the best golfer I have remaining, so it's into the mix he goes. Gotterup is second in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and four in ball striking over each golfer's last 24 rounds, so I'm counting on those numbers to snap him out of a mini-slump and shoot back up the leaderboard. --Kevin O'Brien
BMW Championship: One and Done Fades
Like a broken record, Thomas is becoming a weekly fade here. Hey, if it keeps working, stick with it. Regular readers will know the drill: Wide fairways, play Thomas. Tight fairways, stay away. Bellerive has tight fairways. Last week at narrow TPC Southwind, Thomas tied for 47th. --Len Hochberg
I'll just keep McIlroy in this spot again this week. The fade worked to perfection last week and while I'm a little leery of going back to the well with McIlroy, I just don't think it's going to happen for him during the playoffs, or at least, this week. I can see a scenario where McIlroy plays poorly again and then flips a switch at East Lake, but I don't see one where he plays really well in St. Louis. His form should look better than it did in Memphis, but I don't think he really turns it around until the following week. --Greg Vara
For a guy at just over 30-1 this week, Thomas is most certainly not an ideal course fit. He checked in at 39th of the 50 players in the field in my model. All his strokes that he is gaining of late have been around the green, but given how large the putting surfaces are, short game really should not be much of a factor this week. Thomas is also 48th in this field in SG: Approach over his last 20 starts, which is hard to believe given where he has fallen in that category throughout most of his career. At this stage, a guy like that is not someone you want to be relying on down the stretch in OAD. --Ryan Andrade
Picks and fades at this point in the season should be almost entirely driven by availability and your positioning in the standings, rather than any underlying course fit or recent form metrics. Regardless, avoid players with virtually zero upside like McNealy, who ranks 49th among this 50-man field in SG: Ballstriking over the last four months. --Bryce Danielson
Considering I used Bhatia not long ago he might still be available for some players, and it's probably best to leave him on the sidelines. No one in the field fared worse off the tee over the last 24 rounds and only three were worse in the ball-striking department, so he's simply not sharp enough to count on. --Kevin O'Brien
Don't get burned by late withdrawals. Visit RotoWire's PGA tournament field page for a live-updated summary of the field for the current week and list of players who have dropped out.
