FedEx St. Jude Championship One and Done Picks
The the first of three FedExCup Playoff events takes place this week in Memphis where temperatures could extend into triple digits. Players will need to find a way to stay cool and make smart decisions around a very penal golf course. After 34 regular season events only the top 70 in the FedExCup Standings remain. After the FedEx St. Jude Championship only the top 50 will move onto the BMW Championship in St. Louis. Those 50 players will also be guaranteed a spot in every Signature Event on the 2027 calendar.
One and Done players will also have a lot of consequence down the stretch of the season. Each of the first two legs of the playoffs feature $20 million purses, while the TOUR Championship will have a whopping $40 million purse. That provides a lot of opportunities to make a big move in the standings. Most OAD players will likely have used up many of the top-ranked players by this point in the season, so decisions will need to be made.
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Course Tidbits
- Course: TPC Southwind (7,288 yards, par 70)
- Location: Memphis, Tennessee
- Purse: $20 million -- $3.6 million to winner
- Defending Champion: Justin Rose (-16)
- 2025 Scoring Average: 69.125 (-0.875)
- 2025 36-Hole Cut: No Cut Event
- Average Winning Score Last 5 Years at TPC Southwind: -15.8
TPC Southwind has been a staple on the PGA Tour calendar since 1989. It is one of the best ball striking tests out there. The fairways are narrow, the greens are very small, the rough is penal and there is a very high water risk. It will all be about precision and execution this week. A good round can be over in an instant with just one poor swing or decision.
The field only hit 58 percent of the greens in regulation last year at this event, so there should be plenty of opportunities for the best short game players to gain strokes as well. The fairways are Zoysia, but everything else on this course is Bermuda. The rough might not be long, but controlling the golf ball is tricky both on the second shot and around the greens.
Putting hasn't been super correlated to success here over the years just because of the demands from tee to green. That said, your top ranked putters on Bermuda should still get a slight boost. Driving accuracy, SG: Approach, GIR percentage, SG: Around-the-Green and scrambling should be the key stats to look at this week in Memphis.
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RotoWire One and Done Tools
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FedEx St. Jude Championship: One and Done Picks
I have three big names left -- Scottie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa and, perhaps debatably, Hovland. The latter is the pick. And a bit of a gamble. His best is among the very best on Tour. The thing is, it hasn't showed up much this season. It did when he took down Scheffler in a playoff to win the Travelers. It didn't when he missed the cut in the final three majors. But when Hovland is on, Southwind is a near-perfect fit for his game. He showed that when he finished runner-up to Matsuyama two years ago. --Len Hochberg
One thing everyone needs to do is make sure you have at least one viable option for East Lake. You don't want to get to the final week of the season and be forced to take someone you don't want because you burned your best top-30 option the first week of the playoffs. I've already done my check, and I have a handful of options that look playable, so I'm using Hovland in this spot. Hovland has played well this season outside of the majors and I'm expecting that trend to continue in the playoffs. His track record at TPC Southwind is solid, with three top-20s in four starts, including a runner-up in 2024. --Greg Vara
Morikawa is the top-ranked player in my model that I still have remaining at this point in the season. He has a lot working in his favor this week. Morikawa ranks No. 1 in this field in SG: Approach and GIR percentage on courses with small greens like Southwind's over the last 12 months He is also No. 1 in SG: Off-the-Tee on courses with a high missed fairway penalty over the last 18 months. Perhaps that is why he has never finished worse than T26 in six career starts in Memphis. The kicker could be that Morikawa is also fourth in this field in SG: Putting over the last 20 rounds, and he has gained strokes in five straight events. --Ryan Andrade
Coming off back-to-back missed cuts at The Open and Rocket Classic, Bhatia figures to fly under the radar, so this is primarily an option for folks looking to make a bold move from further back in the standings. Working the ball right to left is a hidden advantage at TPC Southwind, which benefits a lefty cutter like Bhatia, who placed T6-T12 here the past two years. Despite the aforementioned missed cut in Detroit, he actually gained 3.62 strokes on approach over just 36 holes. --Bryce Danielson
Clark missed the weekend in his last two starts, but that's not a concern in an event with no cut. He was as hot as anyone on Tour before The Open, and I'm banking on him getting back to that level in a tournament he finished T7 two years ago. Ultimately, there are only two or three more chances to deploy golfers this year, and I don't want leave a golfer ranked eighth in the Official World Golf Ranking on the sidelines. --Kevin O'Brien
FedEx St. Jude Championship: One and Done Fades
Yeah, him again. Thomas has shorter odds than Chris Gotterup, Hovland, Russell Henley and Clark, to name a few. It's just not happening for him on a course where getting the ball in the fairway is paramount. I faded him last week when he was the fifth betting choice and he finished outside the top 10. --Len Hochberg
I'm not shy about putting big names in this section, but this one makes me nervous. With that said, I don't think things are lined up well for McIlroy this week. He didn't exactly go through a post-Masters funk this year like he did in 2025, but he has just two top-10s since the Masters. While part of that is due to a limited schedule, the other part is he simply hasn't been as sharp in recent months. He now heads to a stop he skipped altogether last year, and he's just supposed to flip the switch? McIlroy's track record indicates it takes him some time to ease into the playoffs, so with that in mind I think he's a reasonable fade. --Greg Vara
I was surprised to see how low Gotterup was in my model this week. The three-time winner in 2026 checked in at just No. 36. When you think about it, though, it does makes sense. Narrow fairways with penal rough does not play into Gotterup's hands. Neither is the fact that he is dead last in this field in proximity from 150-200 yards over the last six months. If you still have Gotterup available, next week at Bellerive Country Club for the BMW Championship is a much better fit. --Ryan Andrade
Clark is more of an obvious fade after missing back-to-back cuts, but some folks might feel obligated to utilize the reigning U.S. Open champion by season's end. He lost a collective 5.95 strokes with his irons across four total rounds at The Open and Rocket Classic, and he's been terribly inaccurate off the tee, ranking dead last among the St. Jude field in DFEF (Distance From Edge of Fairway) this season. --Bryce Danielson
McIlroy finished T3 here in 2023, but that's his only notable result at Southwind in quite some time and he elected to skip this event last year, so it's clear it's not a place he holds close to his heart. Additionally, he was not too sharp on approach in his last two starts across the pond, so he may need to dial that back in. If you still have McIroy available, wait until the stakes are bigger. --Kevin O'Brien
Don't get burned by late withdrawals. Visit RotoWire's PGA tournament field page for a live-updated summary of the field for the current week and list of players who have dropped out.
