Underdog PGA Draft Strategy: BMW Championship

The best strategy and picks for Underdog PGA Drafts at the BMW Championship. See why Cullum Brownbridge thinks Russell Henley could be a good fit for Bellerive Country Club.
Underdog PGA Draft Strategy: BMW Championship
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BMW Championship

Purse: $20M
Winner's Share: $3.6M
FedEx Cup Points: 750 to the winner
Location: St. Louis
Course: Bellerive Country Club
Yardage: 7,448
Par: 70 

Previous Winners

2025 - Scottie Scheffler (Caves Valley)
2024 - Keegan Bradley (Castle Pines)
2023 - Viktor Hovland (Olympia Fields)
2022 - Patrick Cantlay (Wilmington)
2021 - Patrick Cantlay (-27) at Caves Valley
2020 - Jon Rahm (-4) at Olympia Fields
2019 - Justin Thomas (-25) at Medinah
2018 - Keegan Bradley (-20) at Aronimink
2017 - Marc Leishman (-23) at Conway Farms
2016 - Dustin Johnson (-23) at Crooked Stick

Recap: Scheffler ends "drought" in Memphis

The kind of regular season Scheffler had is one that almost any professional golfer would trade their best clubs for. The World No. 1 finished atop the FedExCup Standings, but entering the postseason, Scheffler had just one win under his belt, which happened to be in his 2026 debut at The American Express. He had several chances to add to his trophy cabinet; he lost in a playoff to Matt Fitzpatrick and Viktor Hovland at the RBC Heritage and Travelers Championship, respectively, and Scheffler had three other runner-up finishes; The Masters (won by Rory McIlroy), Cadillac Championship (Cameron Young) and 3M Open (Jackson Koivun).

Scheffler reminded everyone at TPC Southwind why he's the best golfer in the world. He took command of the 36-hole lead following a nine-under 61 second round and maintained his lead into Sunday. While the rest of the field struggled in hot conditions in the final round, the Texas native steadily grew his lead, eventually beating runner-up Si Woo Kim by an eight-stroke margin, the second time Scheffler has won a tournament by eight or more strokes in his career. He also became the third-youngest golfer to reach 21 PGA Tour wins, trailing only Tiger Woods and Jack Nicklaus.

The top-70 players in the FedExCup Standings at the end of the regular season qualified for the playoffs, but only the top-50 after the St. Jude Championship would move onto the BMW Championship (and earn exemptions into all Signature Events in 2027). There was some shuffling in the standings, but there was only one player -- Keith Mitchell -- who dropped out of the top-50 following their performance at TPC Southwind, as he was replaced by Sungjae Im, the latter of whom finished in a share of fifth. Several notable players failed to qualify for the BMW Championship, including Jordan Spieth, Max Homa, Sam Stevens, Corey Conners, Shane Lowry, Brian Harman and Koivun.

Preview: BMW Championship

The FedExCup Playoffs rolls on in St. Louis, Missouri this week, with the top-50 players in the Standings in the field this week at Bellerive Country Club. Those who finish the week in the top-30 of the Standings punch their ticket into next week's lucrative TOUR Championship ($40 million in prize money) and essentially guarantee their spot in all four majors. Sungjae Im punched his ticket into the BMW Championship thanks to his finish in Memphis, but at 40th in the Standings, he'll need another strong performance to earn a spot in next week's postseason finale. Several notable names are fighting for a spot into next week's TOUR Championship, including Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas, Robert MacIntyre (who withdrew after his first round in Memphis) and Gary Woodland.

Onto this week's BMW Championship, which has rotated courses for several years. The last time Bellerive hosted a PGA Tour event was eight years ago at the 2018 PGA Championship, which saw Brooks Koepka collect his third-career major (at the time) and Tiger Woods finish solo second following a six-under final round. Rory McIlroy, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tommy Fleetwood and Justin Thomas were among those in the field for this week's BMW Championship that also teed off in that particular major.

While Bellerive is a par-70 like TPC Southwind last week, the St. Louis course measures considerably longer at 7,448 yards. Both of the par-5s are over 600 yards, and three of the par-4s can measure over 500 yards depending on tee and green setup. Bellerive isn't a deceptive course, and with more spacious fairways, driving distance is going to be more of a factor than it was at TPC Southwind. Still, the course was redesigned to have some fairway bunkers pushed further away from the tees, and the slopes into those bunkers will penalize players who miss the mark with their tee shot. The 3.5-inch rough will be difficult for players to overcome if they can't find the fairway, so a combination of power and control is important, particularly when avoiding those greenside bunkers. The greens themselves are larger this week than last, and they contain more slopes and breaks, so a two-putt for hitting the green in regulation is far from guaranteed. Given the course design, the stats I'm looking for are ball striking (combination of total driving and GIR), SG: Off-the-Tee, SG: Putting, SG: Approach and par-4 scoring.

Underdog Contest Overview

Underdog hosts drafts every week at three buy-in amounts; The Par 3 at $3, the featured draft at $10, and "The Sandbagger" at $100. Each entrant will be paired up with five other players and participate in a six-man snake draft of teams made up of six players (36 total selections), with each selection on a 30-second timer. For example, the person with the first overall pick and lucky enough to get Scheffler (unless you like to live dangerously) will have to wait until 2.6 and 3.1 to make their next selections. Points are allocated to golfers based on their performance on every hole, with bonus points available for golfers who make consecutive birdies or finish a round bogey free.

First Two Rounds

Ludvig Aberg (2.6 Average Draft Position)

Aberg is coming off a T7 performance at the St. Jude Championship that would have been better had it not been for his four-over 74 third round that derailed any hopes of keeping up with Scheffler. Aberg finished the event as the leader in SG: Off-the-Tee and second in GIR, and he's the third-best ball striker on Tour (sixth in total driving, 14th in GIR) this season behind Scheffler and Jordan Smith. Aberg's putting game is slightly above average (60th this season), but he does everything else well; he ranks sixth in SG: Tee-to-Green and top-20 in par-4 scoring, SG: OTT and SG: Approach.

Cameron Young (4.8 ADP)

Young didn't have a great outing last week, finishing T39 while ranking outside the top-50 in driving accuracy, though he also finished sixth in driving distance and top-20 in SG: Around and GIR. That said, it's not too long ago that he finished solo second at The Open Championship and followed that up with a T8 at the Rocket Classic. Young has waxed and waned this season, but he's 16th in ball striking (seventh in total driving, 44th in GIR) while ranking seventh in par-4 scoring, 13th in SG: OTT and 21st in SG: Approach. Like Aberg, a solid putting game would put Young in contention for his third win of the season.

Sam Burns (7.6 ADP)

Burns has generated the most amount of buzz this week, and it's not surprising to see why. He has the second-best SG: Putting this season only behind Jacob Bridgeman, and Burns also ranks second in par-4 scoring, 23rd in driving distance and in the top-40 in both ball striking and SG: Approach. He's also been in spectacular form with three top-3 finishes over his last four outings, including solo second at the U.S. Open and solo third at The Open Championship.

Also consider: Xander Schauffele (8.5 ADP – coming off a T7 at St. Jude Championship, when he was one of the best performers off the tee while finishing 13th in SG: Putting. Ranks 19th in both ball striking and par-4 scoring this season).

Middle-Round Value

Patrick Cantlay (14.4 ADP)

Cantlay started out strongly at the St. Jude Championship but lost steam over the weekend, settling for a T12 finish. It was still a nice follow-up to his T8 performance at the Rocket Classic, and he's finished inside the top-15 in three of his last five outings. Cantlay is one of the best iron players on tour this season, a large reason why he ranks seventh in par-4 scoring. He's also in the top-40 in SG: OTT, SG: Around and ball striking.

Collin Morikawa (16.2 ADP)

Unlike those so far listed, Morikawa didn't have a great performance in Memphis last week (T52). Before that, he had a stretch of three-straight top-20 finishes, including at the U.S. Open and The Open Championship as well as a solo third at the Travelers Championship. He leads the Tour this season in SG: Approach and 10th in ball-striking, and he also ranks top-20 in both total driving and GIR.

Russell Henley (21.8 ADP)

Henley's T30 performance last week was a bit of a let down, though he led the field in driving accuracy and did a lot of good work on the greens. He's a solid ball striker, but he ranks ninth in SG: Putting, and that area of his game plays a key part in his success on the par-4s (seventh in that scoring category). It was only about a month ago that Henley finished in the top-10 of The Open Championship that could have easily been a top-5 had it not been for two late bogeys in the final round.

Also consider: Viktor Hovland (14.0 ADP - coming off a top-20 at the St. Jude, ranks 14th in SG: Approach, 21st in SG: TTG and 24th in total driving).

Late-Round Targets

Tom Kim (23.9 ADP)

Kim's T12 finish last week was due to his seven-under 63 third round, though he couldn't mirror that performance Sunday. Nevertheless, Kim has been one of the best players on Tour since mid-June with six top-20s over his last eight outings. That includes his victory at the Genesis Scottish Open, as well as solo third at the U.S. Open and T5 at the Wyndham Championship. His recent play has him 26th in the Standings, by no means a shoe-in for next week's TOUR Championship. Kim ranks second in par-4 scoring, fifth in SG: Approach and 27th in ball striking.

Kurt Kitayama (24.4 ADP)

Kitayama's T12 last week was a bit of a roller coaster, as he finished with a scorecard of 65-73-66-71. He's 28th in the FedExCup Standings, and he'll need to be more consistent this week to secure his top-30 spot for next week's TOUR Championship. Like Morikawa, Kitayama is 10th on Tour in ball striking and ranks in the top-20 in both total driving and GIR. He's also 10th in SG: Approach, 19th in par-4 scoring and 25th in driving distance.

Alex Fitzpatrick (35.7 ADP)

Maybe I'm going down with the Fitzpatrick ship…but it's hard to forget just how good he was following his victory at the Zurich Classic with his brother to earn PGA Tour status through 2027. Last week was a bit of encapsulation of his season; he was six-under through two rounds and near the top of the leaderboard, but he slipped with a three-over 73 third round, ultimately finishing T61. Fitzpatrick has the fifth-best ball striking on Tour and is second in total driving, as well as fourth in SG: Approach and 19th in SG: Off-the-Tee.

Other late-round dart throws: J.J. Spaun (32.6 ADP - finished T35 in the 2018 PGA Championship, ranks ninth in SG: Approach and top-50 in SG: Around and OTT), Michael Brennan (33.2 ADP - only two weeks removed from his victory at the Wyndham, ranks 21st in ball striking and has recently been better with his putter).

For up-to-the-minute updates on injuries, tournament participation and overall golfer performance, head to RotoWire's latest golf news or follow @RotoWireGolf on X.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Cullum is a RotoWire contributor for the NFL, NBA, MLB and Golf. He is irrationally pessimistic about his favorite sports teams.
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