Underdog PGA Draft Strategy: FedEx St. Jude Championship

The best strategy and picks for Underdog PGA Drafts at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. See why Cullum Brownbridge is targeting Patrick Cantlay at TPC Southwind.
Underdog PGA Draft Strategy: FedEx St. Jude Championship
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FedEx St. Jude Championship

Purse: $20M
Winner's Share: $3.6M
FedEx Cup Points: 750 to the winner
Location: Memphis, Tenn.
Course: TPC Southwind
Yardage: 7,288
Par: 70

Previous Winners

2025 - Justin Rose
2024 - Hideki Matsuyama
2023 - Lucas Glover
2022 - Will Zalatoris
2021 - Tony Finau
2020 - Dustin Johnson
2019 - Patrick Reed
2018 - Bryson DeChambeau
2017 - Dustin Johnson
2016 - Patrick Reed

Recap: Brennan punches ticket to FedExCup Playoffs

The Wyndham Championship was the regular-season finale of the 2026 PGA Tour season and the last opportunity for players to move into the top-70 of the FedExCup Standings to punch a ticket to the playoffs. A victory at Sedgefield Country Club would be enough to make the playoffs, and a number of players flirted with the top of the leaderboard throughout the tournament, including Ben James, Sahith Theegala and Eric Cole

The final round came down to a two-horse race between Michael Brennan and Beau Hossler, with the latter needing a win -- and a win alone -- to qualify for the playoffs. The two exchanged leads early on Sunday, but Brennan raced out to the lead at 21-under after carding five consecutive birdies on the front nine, and he put the finishing touches on his second-career PGA Tour victory by sinking his 13-foot birdie putt on the 18th hole. The three-stroke win catapulted Brennan to 47th in the FedExCup Standings, while the runner-up finish moved Hossler up 50 spots to 72nd, but not quite enough to qualify for the playoffs. Other notable finishes include Ben James (third), Scottish Open winner Tom Kim (T5), Hideki Matsuyama (T7), Alex Smalley (T7), Justin Thomas (T14), Jordan Spieth (T19), Maverick McNealy (T25), Alex Fitzpatrick (T61) and defending champion Cameron Young (T61).

The top-70 of the Standings weren't finalized until after Brennan and Hossler finished their rounds, but occupying that final spot on the bubble, when all was said and done, was Jackson Koivun. The 21-year-old Koivun started in only six PGA Tour events this year -- five as a professional -- but he still made his way into the playoffs thanks to his victory at the ISCO Championship. Barely qualifying for the playoffs include Ricky Castillo, Matti Schmid and Aldrich Potgieter, while notable names who missed out on the top-70 include Steven Fisk (71st), Keegan Bradley (74th), Johnny Keefer (78th), Jason Day (82nd), Brooks Koepka (94th) and Tony Finau (98th).

Preview: FedEx St. Jude Championship

The three-week FedExCup playoffs kick off this week at the St. Jude Championship, with the top-70 in the field at TPC Southwind. The playoff format will remain the same as it has in previous years, where those in the top-50 in points after this week qualify for a spot in the BMW Championship and earn exemptions into all Signature Events in 2027. All three of the playoff events are non-cut, so everyone in the field will have a chance to work their way up the leaderboard over the weekend. A little bit different this year is that allocated points; last year's winner received a whopping 2,000 points, whereas the victor this year will receive 750 points, which is on par with Signature Events and majors. 

Onto TPC Southwind, a par-70 course with narrow fairways surrounded by thick Bermuda rough. Most of the holes are dogleg features that favor the precise drivers over the bombers, similar to Sedgefield Country Club last week. The greens are also smaller than average PGA Tour courses, and SG: Approach and GIR were two of the key stats to success in last year's tournament. In fact, the average GIR in the 2025 St. Jude Championship was 58.4 percent, eight points below average. The way the fairways are designed will generally leave players with approaches of 150-to-175 yards, another indicator to success at Southwinds.

Underdog Contest Overview

Underdog hosts drafts every week at three buy-in amounts; The Par 3 at $3, the featured draft at $10, and "The Sandbagger" at $100. Each entrant will be paired up with five other players and participate in a six-man snake draft of teams made up of six players (36 total selections), with each selection on a 30-second timer. For example, the person with the first overall pick and lucky enough to get Scheffler (unless you like to live dangerously) will have to wait until 2.6 and 3.1 to make their next selections. Points are allocated to golfers based on their performance on every hole, with bonus points available for golfers who make consecutive birdies or finish a round bogey free.

First Two Rounds

Matt Fitzpatrick (4.6 Average Draft Position)

Fitzpatrick finished second in the FedExCup Standings with eight top-10s and three victories within a four-tournament frame, with the exclamation point coming with his win at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans to earn his brother, Alex Fitzpatrick, a PGA Tour membership through 2027 (more on Alex later). Matt missed his first cut of the season last month at The Open Championship, but he finished inside the top-4 in three of the four events prior to Royal Birkdale. He's also enjoyed previous success at TPC Southwind with a T5 in 2022 and a T18 in 2024, though this season is the best form of his PGA career. Fitzpatrick has the best SG: Approach this season and ranks second in both SG: Total and Around, as well as fifth in GIR and 17th in driving accuracy.

Tommy Fleetwood (6.3 ADP)

Fans will remember Fleetwood's strong playoff push in 2025, which started with a T3 at the St. Jude Championship (his second top-3 at Southwind in three years) before a T4 at the BMW Championship, leading to his maiden PGA victory at the TOUR Championship. He's coming into this year's playoffs with seven top-15s in his last eight outings, including a T4 in his last appearance at The Open Championship. Fleetwood's GIR this season has been middling, though he ranks third in both SG: Total and Around, fifth in SG: Tee-to-Green, 12th in driving accuracy and 23rd in SG: Off-the-Tee. 

Collin Morikawa (7.7 ADP)

Second to Matt Fitzpatrick in SG: Approach this season is Morikawa, although as RotoWire's own Len Hochburg points out, Morikawa has the best SG: Approach and GIR percentage on courses featuring small greens over the last 12 months, as well as first in SG: Off-the-Tee at locations with a high-missed fairway penalty over the last 18 months. Morikawa had a strong 2026 season, highlighted by his victory at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, the seventh of his PGA Tour career and first since the 2023 ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP. He's finished inside the top-25 in each of his last four outings at TPC Southwind, including T5 in 2022 and T13 in 2023. 

Hideki Matsuyama (9.9 ADP)

It's been an inconsistent 2026 season for Matsuyama, though he made the cut in all 20 tournaments he played in. However, he's rounded into shape at the right time with five-straight top-15s and three consecutive top-10s, with his T3 at the 3M Open being his best finish since his playoff loss to Chris Gotterup at the WM Phoenix Open. Matsuyama is one of the best scramblers on Tour and has solid approach play, which served him well in his victory at the St. Jude Championship in 2024 before his T17 last year.

Also consider: Si Woo Kim (10.0 ADP – top-10 finishes at the Scottish Open and The Open before a T42 at the Rocket Classic, ranks third this season in SG: Approach and 10th in driving accuracy, finished T14 last year)

Middle-Round Value

Viktor Hovland (15.6 ADP)

Hovland has been hit-or-miss since mid-May, with all three of his missed cuts in that span coming at majors, though he also finished solo third at the Canadian Open before beating Scottie Scheffler on the first playoff hole of the Travelers Championship. Like Fleetwood, Hovland's GIR percentage isn't the greatest, but he does rank 18th in SG: Approach and leads the Tour this season in Approaches from 175-to-200 yards. He's also 27th in driving accuracy and 38th in SG: Around.

Patrick Cantlay (18.5 ADP)

Cantlay has perhaps the most success at the St. Jude Championship without having won the event. He has seven top-12 finishes in nine starts, including a playoff loss to Lucas Glover in 2023 and a T9 last year. Cantlay is 42nd in the FedExCup Standings and needs two big performances to crack the top-30 for a spot at the TOUR Championship. He ranks 10th in scrambling and 21st in SG: Approach (including 35th in GIR). He's also sixth in par-4 scoring, which tends to matter more on par-70 courses.

Tom Kim (20.0 ADP)

Kim overcame a rough first half of the season to round into shape at the right time, outside of a missed cut at The Open Championship. He finished third in the U.S. Open before winning the Genesis Scottish Open, and most recently finished in a share of fifth in last week's Wyndham Championship. Kim ranks fourth in scrambling, sixth in SG: Approach, 13th in proximity and in the top-35 in driving accuracy, GIR and SG: Around.

Also consider: Russell Henley (14.9 ADP - finished T17 at St. Jude last year and T6 in 2023, has the second-best driving accuracy on Tour this season).

Late-Round Targets

Michael Brennan (26.5 ADP)

Brennan's ADP might look a little inflated based on his win last week at the Wyndham Championship, which propelled him into the FedExCup playoffs. However, he was also at the top of the leaderboard a week prior during the final round of the Rocket Classic before tumbling to a T15 finish, so the fact he was able to bounce back at Sedgefield Country Club was an encouraging sign. Brennan has the second-best SG: Off-the-Tee this season and also ranks 15th in proximity and 38th in SG: Approach.

Alex Fitzpatrick (32.9 ADP)

Fitzpatrick has cooled off since his victory with his brother at the Zurich Classic, having missed the cut at the Scottish Open before finishing T71 at The Open and T61 last week at the Wyndham. Still, if he had enough rounds to qualify, his SG: Approach would be the best on Tour this season, and he would also rank eighth in GIR and in the top-30 in driving accuracy. 

Kurt Kitayama (33.2 ADP)

Kitayama has finished outside the top-20 in each of his last six tournaments, though he's enjoyed recent success at TPC Southwind, having finished T9 in 2025. He ranks 11th in total driving, 12th in SG: Approach, 16th in GIR and 31st in SG: Off-the-Tee this season.

Jordan Smith (35.4 ADP)

Smith was in early contention at the Wyndham Championship before settling for a T14 finish, though his tournament was highlighted by a hole-in-one on the par-3 16th in the third round. This week will be his first at TPC Southwind, but he has a solid game that should translate well  to the course. Smith leads the field in total driving, including 26th in driving accuracy, as well as third in GIR and 16th in SG: Off-the-Tee.

Other late-round dart throws: Rickie Fowler (32.0 ADP - coming off a T8 at the Rocket Classic two weeks ago, finished T6 at last year's St. Jude Championship), Sahith Theegala (35.7 ADP - was in early contention at the Wyndham before a poor final round, finished T13 at the St. Jude Championship in both 2022 and 2023).

For up-to-the-minute updates on injuries, tournament participation and overall golfer performance, head to RotoWire's latest golf news or follow @RotoWireGolf on X.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Cullum is a RotoWire contributor for the NFL, NBA, MLB and Golf. He is irrationally pessimistic about his favorite sports teams.
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