Weekly Fantasy Golf Preview: BMW Championship

BMW Championship 

Bellerive Country Club
St. Louis, MO

The PGA Tour heads to St. Louis for the second event of the FedExCup Playoffs.

When I previewed the St. Jude this past week, I threw out the possibility that even though he hadn't won since very early in the season, Scottie Scheffler might just rip off three wins to end the season and while that's still a bit of a longshot, he's checked the first box.

Scheffler is in the midst of a very good season, it's just not quite up to his standards. By anyone else's standards, it's a great season. He's won twice and sits atop of the FedEx standings and I won't even get into all the cash he's made this season. It's been a great season, but we expect more out of Scheffler, you know, like just annihilate the field every once in a while. Well, he took care of that in Memphis, now it's onto the second playoff event, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him run through the field again.

We've spent most of the year wondering what's wrong with Scheffler, even though he was seemingly in the hunt almost every time he teed it up, but there was always something that kept him from just unloading on the field, that something wasn't present at the first playoff event.

Perhaps this win will open the floodgates, or maybe "that something" rears its ugly head again this week. Since we never quite figured out what was wrong with Scheffler in the first place, how will we know if the problem comes back?

One issue that crept up a few times was the putter, but Scheffler's putter was not a problem in Memphis, in fact, it's what helped him get out to and hold a big lead until the end.

One thing has been true with Scheffler for quite a while and that's if his putter is on, no one stands a chance. Most guys on the PGA Tour need a hot putter to win, Scheffler doesn't, a hot putter for Scheffler simply means that a win is guaranteed and a blowout is likely.

If he continues to putt like he did last week, we're looking at a clean sweep in the playoffs. However, if things get out of sorts, even for a little bit, and that's exactly what's happened most of this year, then things will get interesting. There are several players on the PGA Tour that have faced Scheffler on a Sunday and came out victorious this season, they've seen the chinks in Scheffler's armor, he's not Tiger Woods, these guys aren't afraid of him, but as Scheffler proved on Sunday, the ball is in his court, he's the one controlling who has a chance and who doesn't. In Memphis, no one had a chance, we'll see if that's the case this week.   

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FAVORITES

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 4:30 PM ET Tuesday.

Scottie Scheffler (+290) 

Unfortunately, no course history this week, we're at a brand new course, so only one metric to look at and that's form. No one is playing better than Scheffler right now and as I mentioned earlier, if he's putting, it's over for the field. Even if he's not, he's going to be in the mix. He's the defending champ here which doesn't mean all that much since we're on a new course, but it does show that he's shown the ability to win an important playoff event. I know, these events are nowhere near as pressure filled as a major, but there's something about a short field, with the best in the world all battling for the top spot. There's not much value here, but I'd be surprised if Scheffler wasn't in the mix on Sunday, so it might be worth a play here.

Rory McIlroy (16-1)

This is interesting. McIlroy entered the St. Jude at 15-1, and even after finishing 66th out of 69 golfers, his odds have barely moved. I realize that the odds makers set the line where the public is likely to play it, but I can't imagine the reasoning behind taking McIlroy at this number. He hasn't exactly on a roll entering last week and his game was well off in Memphis, so what are we looking at here? A bounce back? At 16-1? I don't get it. I realize he's probably the second-best golfer on the planet, but considering all we have to go on this week is form, this just doesn't look like a good play.  

Ludvig Aberg (16-1)

Aberg's odds are curious as well. Yeah, he played well this past week, but it only resulted in a T7. Aberg started well, but a poor third round took him completely out of the mix. Aberg did score a top-10 in his previous start at the Open Championship, but he's not really on a hot streak right now. He was on a hot streak early in the year, but that didn't result in a win, in fact, it looked like Aberg was struggling to seal the deal, even while on top of his game. He might be trending in the right direction, but a win, against a field like this, seems unlikely this week.  

Visit our golf betting section for the latest PGA odds and finishing props from multiple sportsbooks.

THE NEXT TIER

Sam Burns (20-1)

Burns, like Aberg, has had trouble finding wins this season, but it feels like Burns has been more a factor more often. He wasn't around at the end in Memphis, but he was right there entering the final round. Burns needs to pick up his play in the final round when in contention, that's certainly been an issue over the past couple years, but that's something that should improve with experience. Burns has a great track record at this event, which, as we went over, doesn't quite mean as much this week, but it is interesting that even though this event keeps switching courses, Burns continues to play well every year.  

Si Woo Kim (30-1)

It's not quite as easy as to say, just go with the guys who played well last week, this week, but with no course history, we don't have much else to go on. Here's the other thing as well, we have a lot of trends to analyze when it comes to how these golfers tend to do from event one to the final event. A lot of times, golfers will get it going from the start and carry it through until the end. Is Kim one of those guys? He has always run hot and cold and after last week's runner-up, it's safe to say he's running hot now.

Wyndham Clark (30-1)

Speaking of running hot, no one was hotter than Clark earlier this summer and if last week's result is any indication, Clark may be about to go on another run. Clark was almost an afterthought coming into this season, but his resurgence this summer has put him back on the map. Clark has plenty of experience at this event and in the FedEx playoffs, so he's used to the ramp up in intensity, it's simply a matter of where his game is once they tee off this week. Something tells me that he'll be ready to go and at this number, there's plenty of value.

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LONG SHOTS

Jake Knapp (40-1)         

The way I see it this week is that anyone who wins will need to have a high upside. I don't see anyone grinding out a win this week, it's going to take an exceptional effort. With that in mind, I'm looking at guys who I think have a ton of upside. This isn't the OAD section, we aren't worried about burning out here, it's win or nothing. Knapp was on a heater early in the season, but injuries stalled his progress. He's on his way back up however and if not for a poor final round in Memphis, he might have ended up with a top-3.

Tom Kim (45-1)

Again with Kim, high upside is in play. Kim had struggled a bit in recent years, but he seemed to find his game at the Scottish Open. Kim hasn't slowed much since the win either, he's posted three top-20s in four starts, including a top-5 at the Wyndham. He also posted a strong round of 63 on Saturday in Memphis, so we know his game is close. If he can find his top gear this week, he can win. I don't think we'll see anyone with really long odds this week, so the 45-1 range is about as low as I would go.                  

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-Chosen Pick: Sam Burns – First, the weekly disclaimer. It's impossible to know who is still available in your OAD leagues, so I'm making an educated guess that the likes of Scheffler and McIlroy are gone for the most part and it's these guys on the second tier still available. If that's the case, then Burns looks like a good play this week. He put up a fight this past week, so we know his form is good and he's managed to play well at this event, even through all the venue changes over the years, so there's no reason to think he'll struggle this week.  

Moderately-Chosen Pick: Wyndham Clark – Clark is likely available in a lot of leagues because he wasn't in play early in the season because of poor form and his hot streak a couple months back may not have lasted long enough for most OAD players to get on board. If you're in that spot and you have him at the ready, then this looks like a good spot. Clark played well at the St. Jude and it looks like he might be ready to go on another run. He has plenty of playoff experience as well, so the setting won't get to him either.      

Lightly-Chosen Pick: Jake Knapp – There was a brief period, early in the season where it looked like Knapp was a good play, but injuries put a halt to that and he's only become an option again recently. Knapp has the upside to really make some noise this week and his form looks good, so if you're looking for a big splash with low ownership, Knapp could be your guy this week. Also, keep in mind that you have to save at least one guy who is locked into next week's event.     

Buyer Beware: Rory McIlroy – I'll just keep McIlroy in this spot again this week. The fade worked to perfection last week and while I'm a little leery of going back to the well with McIlroy, I just don't think it's going to happen for him during the playoffs, or at least, this week. I can see a scenario where McIlroy plays poorly again and then flips a switch at East Lake, but I don't see one where he plays really well in St. Louis. His form should look better than it did in Memphis, but I don't think he really turns it around until the following week.

My Pick: Sam Burns – It's not every year that you get to these final few events with players that you love, but I've felt pretty good about my picks in the playoffs to this point. This week it's Burns, who has had a really good season, but he's failed to seal the deal on the weekend. It happened again this past weekend, but in all fairness to Burns, no one was beating Scheffler on Sunday. This event has hopped all over the place in recent years, but Burns has somehow navigate every new course and this week should be no exception. Though he didn't finish well in Memphis, I still think his overall form is good enough to contend again at the BMW.      

View the PGA earnings report to find total winnings and winnings per entry via our fantasy golf stats pages.

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Sam Burns($11,900)
Middle Range: Si Woo Kim ($10,300)
Lower Range: Alex Noren ($8,500)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

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