This article is part of our Crashing the Crease series.
We're about one month into the 2016-17 NHL season, and six goaltenders in particular stand out as pleasant surprises: Devan Dubnyk, Sergei Bobrovsky, Cam Talbot, Jimmy Howard, Craig Anderson and Peter Budaj. Below, I'll examine the sustainability of their surprising success.
Dubnyk hasn't been all that special outside a streak of three consecutive shutouts. That hot stretch bears a lot of weight given his small sample size of action thus far, but he should trend back toward more middling status as the season progresses. While his 2014-15 campaign proved that Dubnyk is capable of sustaining elite production for extended stretches, he likely won't wind up better than a borderline top-10 option when it's all said and done.
Bobrovsky is seldom mentioned among the game's best netminders, but the 2012-13 Vezina Trophy winner is forcing his way back into that discussion with a hot start. He has a 1.79 GAA and .941 save percentage through nine appearances, and looks to be fully healthy after struggling with injuries over the past couple seasons. At just 28 years of age, it's very possible Bobrovsky's peak form could be here to stay en route to another Vezina-worthy campaign.
Talbot's sustainability is directly tied to that of Edmonton's strong start. An improved blue line and the continued rise of captain Connor McDavid look to have bumped the Oilers into the NHL's upper echelon, meaning their 8-4-1 netminder should continue to win games. His save percentage hasn't slipped below .917 in
We're about one month into the 2016-17 NHL season, and six goaltenders in particular stand out as pleasant surprises: Devan Dubnyk, Sergei Bobrovsky, Cam Talbot, Jimmy Howard, Craig Anderson and Peter Budaj. Below, I'll examine the sustainability of their surprising success.
Dubnyk hasn't been all that special outside a streak of three consecutive shutouts. That hot stretch bears a lot of weight given his small sample size of action thus far, but he should trend back toward more middling status as the season progresses. While his 2014-15 campaign proved that Dubnyk is capable of sustaining elite production for extended stretches, he likely won't wind up better than a borderline top-10 option when it's all said and done.
Bobrovsky is seldom mentioned among the game's best netminders, but the 2012-13 Vezina Trophy winner is forcing his way back into that discussion with a hot start. He has a 1.79 GAA and .941 save percentage through nine appearances, and looks to be fully healthy after struggling with injuries over the past couple seasons. At just 28 years of age, it's very possible Bobrovsky's peak form could be here to stay en route to another Vezina-worthy campaign.
Talbot's sustainability is directly tied to that of Edmonton's strong start. An improved blue line and the continued rise of captain Connor McDavid look to have bumped the Oilers into the NHL's upper echelon, meaning their 8-4-1 netminder should continue to win games. His save percentage hasn't slipped below .917 in the past four seasons, giving Talbot a high floor to complement his sky-high ceiling for the Pacific Division leaders.
Howard's fast start has to be taken with a grain of salt due to the small sample, but it's tough to ignore a 1.12 GAA and .965 save percentage, even if those numbers have come in just five appearances. The veteran's main problem is that he's just 2-2-0 while Petr Mrazek is a comparable 4-4-1. It looks like Mrazek will continue to earn the majority of starts, which means even achieving top-20 value looks like a long shot for Howard long-term.
Anderson was supposed to win plenty of games for the Senators, but his tidy 2.31 GAA and .927 save percentage have been pleasant surprises. Backup Mike Condon shut out Vancouver in his lone start, so it looks like Ottawa has truly improved defensively. A top-10 fantasy finish could well be in the cards for Anderson if he can keep up this strong play, as the fast-paced Senators should continue to score in front of him.
Budaj lucked into his opportunity due to Jonathan Quick's injury, but has been fabulous with seven wins and a 1.86 GAA in 10 starts for a Kings team that is elite defensively. Quick isn't projected to be back for over two more months, and the 34-year-old Slovakian should continue to excel in the Los Angeles starting role in the meantime.
Most of the guys below are more traditional options, but that doesn't make them any less valuable. Here are the top performers, risers and fallers:
Top Performers:
Sergei Bobrovsky, CLS - Bobrovsky was highlighted in the intro for good reason. The Russian veteran has won three straight starts, including two in shutout fashion. He's 5-3-1 overall, and has also provided fabulous peripheral numbers with a 1.79 GAA and .947 save percentage.
Matt Murray, PIT - Welcome back Matt! Murray was terrific in his two starts after returning from a broken hand, stopping 64 of 65 starts in road wins over the Ducks and Sharks. His strong play in Pittsburgh's Stanley Cup run looks to have been no fluke, meaning the youngster should make for a strong start every time he's in net moving forward.
Henrik Lundqvist, NYR - Lundqvist has slightly underperformed from a save percentage perspective, but the Rangers have more than made up for his slightly suboptimal .914 mark by becoming the league's most effective offense in front of him. If their scoring drops slightly but King Henrik starts stopping a few more pucks, his 7-2-1 start could easily prove sustainable. Another elite season from the veteran is well underway.
Three rising:
Calvin Pickard, COL - Pickard was pegged early as a high-upside backup with a possibility of usurping Semyon Varlamov's job, and he's closer to doing so now than when the season started. The 24-year-old has been fantastic this season, winning his first three starts while posting a fabulous 1.50 GAA and .946 save percentage. With Varlamov struggling to a 3.67 GAA and .881 save percentage in his first eight appearances, it may not be long until Pickard seizes the job for good.
Frederik Andersen, ANA - Andersen is riding a three-game winning streak in which he has allowed just six goals on 115 shots. Toronto's porous defense is still letting too many shots through for comfort, but at least the former Ducks netminder is starting to seem more up to the task of handling that massive nightly workload after struggling out of the gate.
Corey Crawford, CHI - Crawford has a nice five-game winning streak dating back to Dec. 28. The veteran's 1-3-1 start looks to be well behind him as the Blackhawks have rounded into their expected contender form. Expect the wins to keep pouring in as Crawford looks to top 32 victories for the fourth straight season.
Three Falling:
Semyon Varlamov, COL - Varlamov is the man Calvin Pickard could soon replace in net for the Avalanche, and the veteran Russian frankly won't have much of an argument given his recent woes. He has started three of Colorado's five games in a busy beginning to the month of November, coming up empty on wins while surrendering 14 goals on 82 shots. You can't have a much worse week than Varlamov has.
Al Montoya, MTL - Carey Price's strong play had rendered Montoya pretty much obsolete anyway, but those who were hoping the backup would stay excellent whenever called upon had to be disappointed with his performance Friday. He was shelled for 10 goals on 40 shots by the Blue Jackets as the Canadiens suffered their first regulation loss in spectacular fashion. It's safe to cut bait with Montoya now if you haven't already.
Brian Elliott, CGY - Just when it looked like Elliott was finally settling in with his new team, he gave up nine goals on 60 shots in a pair of losses. Calgary's defensive struggles look to be here to stay, so don't let the odd hot streak fool you into thinking Elliott can come close to replicating the numbers he posted in St. Louis. He'll be one of the league's shakier starting options throughout the rest of the season.
