This article is part of our FanDuel NHL series.
SLATE PREVIEW
There are just two games on tap with the NBA season getting underway. The Red Wings are looking to recover from a third-period meltdown against the Canucks last night with a trip to Ottawa, where the Senators have scored two goals or less in each of their past four games.
The big game of the night will be the Lightning playing host to the visiting Penguins. Both teams have struggled early on this season relative to their high expectations; the Pens, once again, have been hit by a slew of injuries to key players, and the Lightning still look shell-shocked after being swept last spring.
GOALIES
Jonathan Bernier ($7,200) will likely get the start after Jimmy Howard played last night, and neither him nor the Wings were particularly sharp, allowing five goals in the third period and blowing a 2-0 lead. Bernier has been on and off this season, alternating good games and bad games. The risk is that this becomes a high-scoring affair even though the Sens have had a lot of trouble scoring of late; both teams rank in the top four in shots allowed per game.
At the time of this writing, FanDuel Sportsbook had not released the odds for this game yet, but based on prices the Lightning are the favorite if Tristan Jarry ($8,000) starts and the underdog in the unlikely event that Matt Murray ($8,900), who lost to the Panthers last night, gets another start. However, by most possession metrics, the Lightning have been very bad this season despite their winning record. The Lightning rank 11th on the power play and 29th on the penalty kill this season after finishing first in both categories last season, and they also rank 24th in shots per game and eighth-worst in shots allowed per game. Based on HockeyViz, they're generating 13 percent fewer unblocked shots at 5-on-5 than the average team, compared to last season when they were eight percent above the average. Andrei Vasilevskiy's ($8,500) career numbers against the Pens aren't very good, either, with a .888 save percentage and 3.76 GAA.
That being said, the Lightning are the deeper team and they've been traditionally very good at home. They're worth the risk for a team looking to bounce back from a bad loss to the Avs, and they've looked much better over the past two weeks than the first week of the season.
VALUE PLAYS/ONE-OFFS
Jared McCann ($4,200) played just 12 minutes after missing Saturday's game and put up goose eggs across the board, but he's still slated to be the pivot on the second line and second power-play unit. He's a speedy player who can generate offense off the rush, and the Pens just don't have enough depth to use anyone else in Evgeni Malkin's usual spot.
In an effort to jumpstart the Lightning offense, Mathieu Joseph ($3,600) was promoted to the top line with Steven Stamkos and Tyler Johnson. Who knows how long Jon Cooper will stick with this line, but Joseph's speed should help open up a little more space for his linemates to make plays. Joseph has registered six shots in his past four games.
The Sens have had trouble scoring, too, but Jean-Gabriel Pageau ($3,700) has managed to stay on the first line. He's averaged over 19 minutes in his past four games, scoring a goal on 12 shots. He's been their best performer with Colin White struggling, and he's a great value play against a team that doesn't defend particularly well.
FORWARD LINE STACKS
Detroit Red Wings (TOTAL: $18,600)
C – Dylan Larkin ($7,000)
W – Tyler Bertuzzi ($5,200)
W – Anthony Mantha ($6,400)
They rank 1-2-3 in team scoring and also represent three of just six Red Wings who have a positive plus-minus. This line has been dominant since being put together, driving play and generating a lot of scoring chances. They could have a big night against one of the league's worst defenses and goaltending tandems.
Pittsburgh Penguins (TOTAL: $21,300)
C – Sidney Crosby ($9,000)
W – Jake Guentzel ($7,700)
W – Dominik Simon ($4,600)
Crosby has averaged over 22 minutes in two games against the Lightning last season, and that was with Malkin in the lineup. With McCann just returning from injury and also miscast as a scoring second-line center, Crosby will once again have to carry much of the load. Look for Patric Hornqvist ($5,900) to make appearances on this line in Simon's place; when playing with Crosby and Guentzel, the trio have been excellent.
DEFENSEMEN
Thomas Chabot ($5,300) should be a popular choice if there's a vote split between Kris Letang and Victor Hedman. Chabot has a point in three straight games and continues to be a big minutes eater for the Sens. He'll be seeing a lot of Larkin's line, which will be a challenge, but there's no other Sens defenseman currently worth taking, and Chabot's upside is worth the price.
Filip Hronek ($3,900) had an assist in 24 minutes against the Canucks and generally looked good creating chances, and probably the better value play than Dennis Cholowski ($3,800). Both split time on the power play and Cholowski is a bit cheaper, but Hronek plays a lot more minutes and gets more pucks on net, giving him a higher floor with a similar upside.
