This article is part of our FanDuel NHL series.
SLATE PREVIEW
It's a 12-game slate today with an early matinee at 1:00 p.m. EST before the rest of the games begin at 7. There are some curious money lines (courtesy FanDuel Sportsbook), including the defending champion Lightning (-174) being the second-most favored team against the Predators, who have won two straight. But the one that raises my eyebrows is the Hurricanes (-124) hosting the unbeaten Stars. I get Dallas is off to an unsustainable start and the game will be competitive, but Carolina's .951 Sv% at 5-on-5 also seems unsustainable.
The biggest favorite are the Panthers (-178), who have ridden their brilliant top line to a 3-0-1 record and face the division-worst Red Wings. The Avalanche are also heavily favored (-158) against the Wild, who will be without the suspended Kevin Fiala.
The Rangers-Penguins comes in with the tightest spread, and probably for good reason. Alexis Lafreniere's play is trending up and the Pens are a mess to start the season… again.
(All fancy stats courtesy Natural Stat Trick.)
GOALIES
Philipp Grubauer, COL at MIN ($8,600): Grubauer needed to make only 21 saves for his second shutout of the season, and the Wild will be lacking in firepower without Fiala. Minnesota's a decent team, but rank 14th at 3.00 GF/GP and that's not good enough to beat the Avs most nights. Grubauer's underlying stats aren't nearly as good as his record suggests, but expected Wild starter Kaapo Kahkonen hasn't shown an ability to steal games either.
Tuukka Rask, BOS at WSH ($8,400): Rask missed Thursday's game but is expected to be ready against the Capitals, who have defied the odds and gone 3-0-1 without key players in their lineup. The status of the Caps' foursome in COVID protocol is unknown as of this writing, but the Bruins are getting a huge boost with David Pastrnak back.
Carter Hart, PHI vs. NYI ($8,100): Hart bounced back after a poor outing against Boston and limited the Devils to just one goal on 34 shots. The Islanders' defense looked very tired against the Caps and blew a 3-0 lead, while their goaltending hasn't been able to bail them out. The Flyers also rank eighth in GF/GP (3.50).
Jordan Binnington, STL at ANH ($7,300): The Blues got extra rest after their Thursday game against Vegas was postponed and should have no problem handling the Ducks despite a shaky start. Binnington's been excellent over the last three games, though the same can't be said for the defense in front of him. Good thing the Ducks are one of the league's worst offensive teams.
VALUE PLAYS
Carter Verhaeghe, FLA at DET ($4,400): I'm not sure why Verhaeghe continues to be so undervalued even though he's netted six points and plays on one of the league's best lines. Regardless, I'll take him at this salary any day, especially against the Red Wings. Even if you're not a Verhaeghe believer – and there are plenty – you can't deny he's been red-hot and there are no signs he's letting up.
Josh Anderson, MON vs. CGY ($4,400): Anderson's on a three-game point streak with eight shots during that span. He stands out among Canadiens' forwards for his mix of size and skill and represents a better value play than third-liner Tyler Toffoli ($5,800). Ice time is very spread out on a balanced Habs' attack, which would be the only real downside to Anderson.
Andrew Copp, WPG vs. VAN ($4,300): Copp has been unbelievable over the past week with four goals, five assists and 22 (!) shots in his past five games. He's found his offense after three straight sub-30-point seasons and this represents a favorable matchup as the Canucks allow a league-high 37.1 (!) shots per contest.
Zach Sanford, STL at ANH ($4,300): Sanford's a value play because he's on the top line with Ryan O'Reilly and features on PP2, although has little to show for it with just one assist on the season. The Ducks should be an easy opponent, so perhaps Sanford will fare better this game. And it's also been an undeniably poor start for the Blues so far.
Jesse Puljujarvi, EDM vs. TOR ($3,700): We need to be patient with Puljujarvi, who has just one assist in three games since joining Connor McDavid on the top line. The Oilers have scored 11 goals over their past three games, but it's their defense that's the problem. The drawback to Puljujarvi is he's on PP2 and the Leafs have been able to grind out wins through solid defense.
Jordan Greenway, MIN vs. COL ($3,700): Greenway's been a nice surprise for the Wild this year with a goal and six assists, nearly all of which has come in the past five games. He's shooting the puck a lot more and ranks fourth among Wild wingers with 82 chances at 5-on-5. With Fiala out of the lineup, look for Greenway's role to increase and perhaps even make an appearance on the power play.
Dylan Cozens, BUF vs. NJ ($3,600): Cozens' ice time is limited as the Sabres bring him along slowly, but he's been skating on the second line with Eric Staal. Sam Reinhart is a game-time decision, so expect Cozens to earn a bigger role if the former doesn't play. Also, Cozens has featured on the second PP unit.
Jesper Bratt, NJ at BUF ($3,600): Bratt played 20 minutes in his season debut and featured on Jack Hughes' line. That's the best spot to be for any Devils forward, while the Sabres are 19th with 2.88 GA/GP. Jersey's offense will probably live and die with Hughes, but at this salary Bratt's a great value play given his ice time.
Nils Hoglander, VAN at WPG ($3,400): Hoglander only notched two apples in a decisive sweep of the Senators, but in reality he's been playing much better than that; his 140 chances at 5-on-5 trails only Bo Horvat among Vancouver forwards. Hoglander's a fixture on the second line and second power play, while his ability to create plays off the forecheck is evident.
Colin Blackwell, NYR vs. PIT ($3,100): Blackwell's play is trending up and he's been skating on the second line opposite Artemi Panarin and Ryan Strome. He scored 31 points in 53 games in the AHL and NHL last season, so the undersized forward certainly offers some skill. Blackwell has scored a point in every game this season and played 15 minutes last game, but doesn't feature on either PP unit.
Kieffer Bellows, NYI at PHI ($3,000): Bellows is a physical forward who isn't afraid to shoot the puck and led AHL Bridgeport with 22 goals last season. The Islanders are desperately in need of offense averaging just two goals per game, so Bellows should help in that regard. He has six shots in his past three games and plays on the second PP.
LINE STACKS
Rangers vs. Penguins
Mika Zibanejad (C - $7,000), Pavel Buchnevich (W - $5,200), Alexis Lafreniere (W - $4,200)
Hopefully, Lafreniere's overtime is a preview of bigger things to come, as he's posted the biggest difference among Rangers' forwards between xGF and GF - just ahead of Panarin. The Pens' goaltending has been an absolute mess, and their defense is missing key players due to injury.
Bruins at Capitals
Patrice Bergeron (C - $7,700), Brad Marchand (W - $8,200), David Pastrnak (W - $7,500)
I don't expect Pastrnak to be good right away, but the Perfection Line is back. And even at less than 100 percent, it's still better than most top trios. The biggest risk is expected starter Vitek Vanecek, who has been excellent so far and ranks seventh in GSAA at 5-on-5. Of note: the Caps' PK enters this contest ranked 20th.
Panthers at Red Wings
Aleksander Barkov (C - $7,000), Anthony Duclair (W - $4,800), Carter Verhaeghe (W - $4,400)
Not only is this line's 63.37 CF% on par with McDavid's crew (65.75 CF%), it's also no fluke the difference between their xGF and GF is less than one goal. Detroit is sixth-worst at 3.63 GA/PG and 24th in PK.
Canucks at Jets
Elias Pettersson (C - $6,500), J.T. Miller (W - $6,800), Brock Boeser (W - $6,600)
True to their word, the Lotto Line looked even better after their breakout game Wednesday. They combined for 11 points in the final two versus the Sens and accounted for 21 of the Canucks' 68 total shots (30.9%) in the series.
DEFENSEMEN
Quinn Hughes, VAN at WPG ($5,700): Hughes scored five points in a three-game set against Ottawa and now has 10 assists on the season, which ranks second in the league. Given his offensive upside, he can also be considered a value at this salary. Also, the Jets' PK ranks 29th.
Darnell Nurse, EDM at TOR ($4,800): Nurse is on a heater with five assists over his past three games and leads all Oilers' defensemen in points, power-play points and ice time. His fantasy floor is quite high.
Rasmus Ristolainen, BUF vs. NJ ($4,700): Ristolainen and Jake McCabe have been Buffalo's best pair this season, with the underlying metrics supporting the eye test. Ristolainen quarterbacks the second power-play group and along with McCabe have provided more points than any other Sabres' pairing.
Tony DeAngelo, NYR vs. PIT ($4,500): I'm cautiously optimistic about DeAngelo, who has become fantasy-relevant again after being moved back to PP1 and bumping Adam Fox to PP2. DeAngelo has played much better since being healthy scratched and the Pens represent a vulnerable opponent.
Charlie McAvoy, BOS at WSH ($4,500): Matt Grzelcyk is doubtful, which means McAvoy gets a chance to move back to PP1 and extend his point streak to four games where he's recorded five assists and six blocked shots.
Ty Smith, NJ at BUF ($3,800): Smith's hot hand has cooled off, but he's now a staple on Jersey's top power play averaging 1:53 PP TOI/GP since Jan. 21- more than both Damon Severson and P.K. Subban - which means he's the Devils' defenseman with the most upside.
