DraftKings NHL: Monday Breakdown

DraftKings NHL: Monday Breakdown

This article is part of our DraftKings NHL series.

SLATE PREVIEW

There are seven games on the DraftKings docket Monday night. Only one of the teams -- the Ducks -- played last night, and only the Oilers play tomorrow night as well. 

According to DraftKings Sportsbook, the Avalanche (-340) are the biggest favorites. The Edmonton-Toronto game has a 6.5 O/U, and the rest of the contests are 5.5 O/U. It figures to be a low-scoring slate, so taking some chalk plays may be a strong move. However, there are a few key value plays that could make or break your lineup.

All advanced statistics are courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.

GOALIES

Philipp Grubauer, COL vs. ANH ($8,500): Grubauer is the chalk Monday. He's 8-0-1 with a .961 save percentage over the last nine games, and the overtime loss was to the Golden Knights -- a fellow heavyweight. Offensive support shouldn't be an issue since John Gibson (upper body) isn't expected to play, and the Ducks' offense is of little concern for Grubauer's personal performance.

Connor Hellebuyck, WPG at CGY ($7,700): Hellebuyck is on a hot streak, posting a .917 save percentage or better in five straight games. The defensive support hasn't been very good in that stretch, but he prevented 3.52 goals above expected nonetheless. Facing the Flames should alleviate some of the risk, too, as they rank 21st in March with 1.88 xGF/60. 

Linus Ullmark, BUF vs. PHI ($7,000): We generally don't want anything to do with a Sabres goalie considering the team has just six wins this year. However, Ullmark has been impressive this year with a .918 save percentage across 13 appearances. Opportunity looms, too. The Flyers are in a slump, ranking 25th over the last three weeks with 1.98 xGF/60 at even strength. Ullmark's a significant contrarian option for tournaments, not cash games. 

VALUE PLAYS/ONE-OFFS

Kevin Fiala, MIN at SJ ($5,000): The Sharks give up plenty of looks. While they enjoyed a few games of strong goaltending, but it was predictably short-lived. Fiala has a similar shooting release to Kirill Kaprizov without the skating abilities, and he's averaging nearly three shots per game.  

Sam Reinhart, BUF vs. PHI ($4,500): Reinhart has recorded 12 goals -- six with the man advantage -- and 21 points this season. The Flyers' goaltending has been a train wreck this season, and their PK hasn't been immune, ranking 29th in the league at 72.8 percent. Casey Mittelstadt ($2,500) is centering PP1 and could form a cheap stack.

Paul Stastny, WPG at CGY ($4,300): Stastny was blanked in Saturday's loss to the Flames, but he added two points in Friday's win over them. The 35-year-old has been steady since entering the top line, contributing seven goals and four assists across the last 14 outings. It's also appealing that Jacob Markstrom has put up an .896 save percentage in March.

LINE STACKS

Maple Leafs vs. Oilers

Auston Matthews (C - $9,100), Mitch Marner (W - $8,100), Joe Thornton (W - $3,500)

Jumbo Joe is back on the top line, and he's been struggling a bit lately with just one shot on net over the last five games. At the very least, he keeps the price tag manageable and should have a chance to latch onto production against a faulty Edmonton defense. Matthews provides immense upside every night. He's averaged nearly 4.5 shots per game in March, but he's scored on just 8.7 percent of those. Matthews typically lights the lamp around 15.0 percent of the time, so upward regression is due. The ceiling's even higher if Mikko Koskinen is in goal, which is a possibility with the Oilers scheduled to play Tuesday as well. 

Golden Knights vs. Kings

Chandler Stephenson (C - $4,300), Mark Stone (W - $6,500), Max Pacioretty (W - $7,900)

Over the last 10 games, this line has generated 2.63 xGF/60 but posted 5.90 G/60 at even strength. With shooters like Pacioretty and Stone, they're expected to finish above their baseline. They've combined for 37 goals and 55 assists over 31 appearances, and the Kings' defensive breakdowns provide a high ceiling Monday, especially if Jonathan Quick is in net. 

Avalanche vs. Ducks

Nazem Kadri (C - $5,900), Andre Burakovsky (W - $4,300), Brandon Saad (W - $3,900)

Nathan MacKinnon's line has been firing on all cylinders, recording 3.36 xGF/60 at even strength over the last 10 games. However, Colorado's second line posted a 3.37 mark in the same stretch. They're far more reasonably priced, saving $8,800 in total. The matchup against Ryan Miller -- who has posted an .880 save percentage this year -- is quite intriguing, too.

DEFENSEMEN

Morgan Rielly, TOR vs. EDM ($5,500): With 25 points through 34 games, Rielly is rolling, especially on the power play where he has 11 points. He doesn't have much of a floor, but his work on the man advantage provides massive upside against Edmonton's putrid PK (76.5 percent) that sits 21st in the league.

Samuel Girard, COL vs. ANH ($4,800): Even with Cale Makar back in the lineup, Girard is still cruising with five points over the last six games. He gets power-play time with Burakovsky and Saad, too, and the Ducks' PK (75.7 percent) is quite bad. However, if you're spending up for MacKinnon's line, you might as well spend up for Makar, too.

Jared Spurgeon, MIN at SJ ($4,500): Spurgeon brings a concrete floor to the table every night; he's hit the shot-blocking bonus (three blocked shots) in five of the past nine games. His offensive upside is nothing to overlook, either, as he's registered five points -- two with the man advantage -- in that stretch.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Jordan Mazzara plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: Mazz30 Yahoo: Mazz30 DraftKings: Mazz30.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jordan Mazzara
Jordan has produced NFL and NHL content for RotoWire since 2017. He's the beat writer for the St. Louis Blues and Seattle Seahawks.
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