NHL Player Props Today: Goal Scorer Picks, Oct. 13

RotoWire's Lamp Lab model's top scoring probabilities and biggest model-vs-book edges for tonight's NHL slate.

New to the model? See how the numbers below are built -- Poisson probabilities, shrinkage-adjusted rates, and live matchup edges -- in our full NHL Anytime Goal Scorer Model explainer.

Tuesday's NHL slate has 16 games, starting with Devils at Red Wings at 6:00 p.m. ET. Our model prices every skater's chance of scoring and compares it with DraftKings' anytime goal scorer odds. Prices and goalie news below are as of 10:55 AM ET; the widget updates through the day. The model finds a positive gap on 135 of 513 priced skaters, and thirteen of them clear the bar we use for a pick.

NHL Player Props Today: Tuesday's Slate

Game totals are DraftKings' main line (the Over priced closest to even money). Goalie ratings are 5-on-5 goals allowed divided by expected goals allowed: below 1.00 means the goalie has beaten the average, above 1.00 means he has been worse.

Goalie news from DailyFaceOff as of this morning: 9 of 32 starters are confirmed, so most ratings could change. The Sabres, Golden Knights, Wild, Devils, Senators and Panthers played Monday night, so they are each on the second night of a back-to-back. Leevi Merilainen has no NHL goalie rating in our data, so we treat him as an average goalie.

Best NHL Anytime Goal Scorer Picks Tonight

Edge is the model's probability minus the probability implied by DraftKings' price, and that price already includes the sportsbook's margin. A top pick has to clear three bars: an edge of at least 3 points, at least 2 shots on goal per game, and a model probability of at least 20%. Thirteen skaters clear them tonight, but we spread the list across games, with at most two skaters from any one team or game. The table marks each pick Top, Next or Fair.

Brock Nelson, Avalanche C (+360)

The model has Nelson at 29.0% (fair price +245) against the 21.7% that +360 implies, a +7.3-point gap. He has 33 goals in 81 games at 2.3 shots per game. The Stars' expected starter, Jake Oettinger (likely), rates 0.88, better than average.

Kiefer Sherwood, Sharks L (+475)

The model has Sherwood at 23.5% (fair price +325) against the 17.4% that +475 implies, a +6.1-point gap. He has 23 goals in 72 games at 2.3 shots per game. The Bruins' expected starter, Jeremy Swayman (likely), rates 0.73, better than average. Even by the model, a 23.5% chance means he misses about 76 times in 100, so treat this as a long shot.

Jack Roslovic, Maple Leafs C (+400)

The model has Roslovic at 25.5% (fair price +292) against the 20.0% that +400 implies, a +5.5-point gap. He has 21 goals in 69 games at 2.0 shots per game. The Mammoth's expected starter, Karel Vejmelka (likely), rates 0.94, close to average. Even by the model, a 25.5% chance means he misses about 74 times in 100, so treat this as a long shot.

William Karlsson, Golden Knights C (+390)

The model has Karlsson at 25.8% (fair price +288) against the 20.4% that +390 implies, a +5.4-point gap. He has 4 goals in 14 games at 2.1 shots per game. The Predators allowed 1.34 goals per game to centers last season, the 5th-most. The Predators' expected starter, Juuse Saros (likely), rates 1.07, close to average. Caution: only 14 games of data, so the rate is less certain.

Tom Wilson, Capitals R (+250)

The model has Wilson at 33.6% (fair price +198) against the 28.6% that +250 implies, a +5.0-point gap. He has 30 goals in 72 games at 2.1 shots per game and is on the Capitals' first power-play unit. Caution: he scored on about 20% of his shots, well above the NHL average of roughly 11%, so some regression is likely. The Hurricanes' expected starter, Pyotr Kochetkov (likely), rates 1.03, close to average.

Artturi Lehkonen, Avalanche L (+380)

The model has Lehkonen at 24.5% (fair price +308) against the 20.8% that +380 implies, a +3.7-point gap. He has 21 goals in 70 games at 2.2 shots per game. The Stars' expected starter, Jake Oettinger (likely), rates 0.88, better than average.

How Friday's Picks Did

Of the six anytime goal scorer picks in Friday's table, one scored: Boone Jenner. Erik Karlsson, Aliaksei Protas, Jared McCann, Zach Werenski and Mark Scheifele played but did not score. That is a handful of bets, so it says almost nothing about the model; we grade every board against final box scores and will publish the running results once the sample is large enough to mean something.

NHL Goal Props by Game

Devils at Red Wings, 6:00 PM ET

Highest model probabilities: Dylan Larkin (36.6%, +170), Alex DeBrincat (35.7%, +150), Jack Hughes (33.9%, +155), Anthony Mantha (30.7%, +300). Starters: Jake Allen for the Devils (0.95, confirmed) and John Gibson for the Red Wings (0.95, confirmed). No skater here clears our pick bar. Injuries per DailyFaceOff: Devils out: Seamus Casey, Nick Bjugstad, Connor Brown. Red Wings out: J.T. Compher, Marco Kasper, Mason Appleton; day-to-day: Lucas Raymond.

Panthers at Blue Jackets, 6:15 PM ET

Highest model probabilities: Sam Reinhart (36.0%, +205), Matthew Tkachuk (32.4%, +180), Brady Tkachuk (29.7%, +200), Sam Bennett (29.4%, +245). Starters: Akira Schmid for the Panthers (0.95, likely) and Cam Talbot for the Blue Jackets (1.11, confirmed). Our picks here: Sam Reinhart. Injuries per DailyFaceOff: Panthers out: Aleksander Barkov, Jonah Gadjovich, Brad Marchand. Blue Jackets out: Isac Lundestrom, Ivan Provorov, Dante Fabbro.

Sabres at Canadiens, 6:30 PM ET

Highest model probabilities: Cole Caufield (44.3%, +110), Tage Thompson (36.5%, +145), Juraj Slafkovsky (30.6%, +185), Nick Suzuki (30.5%, +175). Starters: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen for the Sabres (1.05, likely) and Jacob Fowler for the Canadiens (0.94, confirmed). No skater here clears our pick bar. Injuries per DailyFaceOff: Sabres out: Jason Zucker, Conor Timmins; day-to-day: Alex Lyon. Canadiens out: Ivan Demidov; day-to-day: Oliver Kapanen, Sam Montembeault.

Capitals at Hurricanes, 6:45 PM ET

Highest model probabilities: Tom Wilson (33.6%, +250), Alex Tuch (32.9%, +235), Alex Ovechkin (29.4%, +260), Andrei Svechnikov (27.4%, +180). Starters: Logan Thompson for the Capitals (0.79, likely) and Pyotr Kochetkov for the Hurricanes (1.03, likely). Our picks here: Tom Wilson. Injuries per DailyFaceOff: Capitals out: Rasmus Sandin; day-to-day: Alex Tuch, Matt Roy, Pierre-Luc Dubois. Hurricanes out: Seth Jarvis, Alexander Nikishin; day-to-day: Jordan Staal.

Kraken at Flyers, 7:00 PM ET

Highest model probabilities: Jared McCann (28.9%, +180), Tyson Foerster (27.1%, +300), Jordan Eberle (27.0%, +250), Owen Tippett (26.6%, +200). Starters: Philipp Grubauer for the Kraken (0.80, likely) and Dan Vladar for the Flyers (0.88, likely). No skater here clears our pick bar. Injuries per DailyFaceOff: Kraken out: Jacob Melanson, Ryan Lindgren. Flyers out: Nikita Grebenkin, Rasmus Ristolainen; day-to-day: Travis Konecny, Cam York.

Lightning at Rangers, 7:15 PM ET

Highest model probabilities: Nikita Kucherov (42.0%, +150), Brandon Hagel (37.9%, +155), Jake Guentzel (34.3%, +180), Pavel Dorofeyev (31.7%, +195). Starters: Andrei Vasilevskiy for the Lightning (0.97, likely) and Dylan Garand for the Rangers (0.93, confirmed). No skater here clears our pick bar. Injuries per DailyFaceOff: Lightning out: Yanni Gourde; day-to-day: Emil Lilleberg. Rangers out: Igor Shesterkin, Joe Veleno, Joonas Korpisalo.

Blues at Senators, 7:30 PM ET

Highest model probabilities: Tim Stuetzle (32.3%, +185), Robert Thomas (32.0%, +295), Drake Batherson (31.1%, +200), Dylan Holloway (30.9%, +225). Starters: Joel Hofer for the Blues (0.90, likely) and Samuel Ersson for the Senators (1.21, likely). No skater here clears our pick bar. Injuries per DailyFaceOff: Blues out: Logan Mailloux, Tyler Tucker, Alexey Toropchenko; day-to-day: Dillon Dube. Senators out: Artem Zub, William Eklund, Kurtis MacDermid, Cameron Crotty; day-to-day: Jake Sanderson.

Canucks at Islanders, 7:45 PM ET

Highest model probabilities: Bo Horvat (39.2%, +145), Kyle Palmieri (27.0%, +200), Emil Heineman (25.8%, +250), Matthew Schaefer (25.2%, +295). Starters: Leevi Merilainen for the Canucks (no NHL rating, likely) and Ilya Sorokin for the Islanders (0.80, confirmed). No skater here clears our pick bar. Injuries per DailyFaceOff: Canucks out: Thatcher Demko, Filip Chytil. Islanders out: Alexander Romanov; day-to-day: Mathew Barzal.

Penguins at Blackhawks, 8:00 PM ET

Highest model probabilities: Tyler Bertuzzi (35.8%, +195), Bryan Rust (34.0%, +225), Rickard Rakell (33.9%, +190), Sidney Crosby (32.0%, +175). Starters: Sergei Murashov for the Penguins (0.99, likely) and Spencer Knight for the Blackhawks (0.96, likely). Our picks here: Bryan Rust. Injuries per DailyFaceOff: Penguins day-to-day: Justin Brazeau. Blackhawks out: Connor Bedard, Frank Nazar; day-to-day: Andrew Mangiapane.

Wild at Jets, 8:15 PM ET

Highest model probabilities: Kirill Kaprizov (42.2%, +105), Matt Boldy (39.9%, +155), Kyle Connor (37.7%, +140), Mark Scheifele (34.9%, +175). Starters: Calvin Pickard for the Wild (1.17, confirmed) and Stuart Skinner for the Jets (0.91, confirmed). No skater here clears our pick bar. Injuries per DailyFaceOff: Wild out: Brock Faber, Filip Gustavsson; day-to-day: Nico Sturm, Nick Foligno, Marcus Foligno. Jets out: Elias Salomonsson, Connor Hellebuyck; day-to-day: Josh Morrissey.

Avalanche at Stars, 8:30 PM ET

Highest model probabilities: Nathan MacKinnon (41.9%, +110), Wyatt Johnston (38.4%, +170), Jason Robertson (35.7%, +160), Martin Necas (32.6%, +180). Starters: Mackenzie Blackwood for the Avalanche (0.92, confirmed) and Jake Oettinger for the Stars (0.88, likely). Our picks here: Brock Nelson, Artturi Lehkonen. Injuries per DailyFaceOff: Avalanche day-to-day: Logan O'Connor. Stars out: Matt Duchene.

Golden Knights at Predators, 8:45 PM ET

Highest model probabilities: Steven Stamkos (42.4%, +165), Filip Forsberg (39.9%, +145), Mark Stone (37.5%, +170), Jack Eichel (32.4%, +170). Starters: Adin Hill for the Golden Knights (1.23, likely) and Juuse Saros for the Predators (1.07, likely). Our picks here: William Karlsson. Injuries per DailyFaceOff: Golden Knights out: Victor Olofsson, Parker Wotherspoon. Predators out: Justus Annunen, William Trudeau; day-to-day: Mavrik Bourque.

Maple Leafs at Mammoth, 9:00 PM ET

Highest model probabilities: Dylan Guenther (43.8%, +130), Logan Cooley (37.2%, +195), Auston Matthews (36.5%, +160), Nick Schmaltz (35.1%, +165). Starters: Sergei Bobrovsky for the Maple Leafs (1.13, likely) and Karel Vejmelka for the Mammoth (0.94, likely). Our picks here: Jack Roslovic. Injuries per DailyFaceOff: Maple Leafs out: Elvis Merzlikins, Max Domi, Dakota Joshua, Chris Tanev. Mammoth out: Michael Carcone.

Flames at Ducks, 9:45 PM ET

Highest model probabilities: Leo Carlsson (33.7%, +160), Mikael Granlund (28.8%, +200), Beckett Sennecke (25.6%, +160), Morgan Frost (23.7%, +250). Starters: Devin Cooley for the Flames (1.03, likely) and Lukas Dostal for the Ducks (1.03, likely). No skater here clears our pick bar. Injuries per DailyFaceOff: Flames out: Jonathan Huberdeau; day-to-day: Samuel Honzek. Ducks out: Troy Terry, Ian Moore, Drew Helleson; day-to-day: Cutter Gauthier, Ryan Poehling.

Oilers at Kings, 10:30 PM ET

Highest model probabilities: Connor McDavid (45.4%, +120), Leon Draisaitl (41.3%, +120), Adrian Kempe (37.2%, +150), Artemi Panarin (29.2%, +210). Starters: Devon Levi for the Oilers (1.01, likely) and Darcy Kuemper for the Kings (0.98, likely). No skater here clears our pick bar. Injuries per DailyFaceOff: Oilers out: Alec Regula, Frederik Andersen, Mattias Janmark, Matthew Savoie, Colton Dach, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins; day-to-day: Zach Hyman, Jake Walman. Kings out: Alex Turcotte, Mats Zuccarello, Kevin Fiala.

Bruins at Sharks, 11:00 PM ET

Highest model probabilities: Morgan Geekie (39.7%, +195), David Pastrnak (35.9%, +140), Macklin Celebrini (34.7%, +115), Pavel Zacha (34.0%, +220). Starters: Jeremy Swayman for the Bruins (0.73, likely) and Yaroslav Askarov for the Sharks (1.18, likely). Our picks here: Kiefer Sherwood.

Edges We Left Off the Pick List

Morgan Geekie (+195, +5.8 points), Aliaksei Protas (+400, +4.9 points), Steven Stamkos (+165, +4.7 points) and Jakob Chychrun (+400, +4.5 points), plus one more, clear our top bar but are off the list because we spread the list across games and take at most two skaters from any one team or game. The full board is in the widget.

Some of the largest raw gaps fail our other bars, usually because the player does not shoot enough or has too little data to trust: Teddy Blueger (+850, +10.5 points; only 1.5 shots per game); Parker Kelly (+900, +8.5 points; only 1.3 shots per game); Marat Khusnutdinov (+750, +7.6 points; only 1.0 shots per game); Filip Hallander (+750, +6.8 points; only 1.7 shots per game); Robert Thomas (+295, +6.7 points; only 1.6 shots per game). The model leans heavily on actual goals, so a good finishing year can inflate a depth player's number. Treat these as lottery tickets, not picks.

Hot and Due Skaters: Do They Offer Value?

In the model, "Hot" means a skater has scored at least four goals in his last 10 games at a rate at least 1.4 times his season pace, and "Due" means his expected goals beat his actual goals by two or more over the last 10. Those windows still reach back into last season, since 2026-27 has only just started. Tonight 42 skaters are hot and 11 are due, and the price has moved with the form: 33 of the 42 hot skaters are priced at or above the model's number.

•        Hot with a positive edge: Tomas Hertl (VGK, +260, +1.3); Igor Chernyshov (SJS, +380, +2.2); Ryan Leonard (WSH, +360, +1.2); Will Cuylle (NYR, +380, +2.1); Pavel Buchnevich (STL, +360, +0.5); Ilya Mikheyev (TBL, +475, +2.9); Boone Jenner (WSH, +500, +2.6); Jaden Schwartz (COL, +475, +0.6); Nicholas Robertson (PIT, +475, +0.1).

•        Due: Sidney Crosby (PIT, +175, −4.4); Sam Bennett (FLA, +245, +0.4); Timo Meier (NJD, +245, −1.0); Kyle Palmieri (NYI, +200, −6.3); Lucas Raymond (DET, +220, −6.4); Anton Lundell (FLA, +310, +0.1); Roope Hintz (DAL, +235, −5.8); Joel Eriksson Ek (MIN, +200, −10.4); Ridly Greig (OTT, +450, −2.5); Andrew Copp (DET, +475, −4.3); William Carrier (CAR, +550, −6.4). Being due is not the same as being a value; check the edge.

Skaters Priced Too Short

A few likely scorers cost more than the model says they are worth. Beckett Sennecke is +160 (38.5% implied) against a model fair price of +291 (25.6%); Brayden Point is +175 (36.4% implied) against a model fair price of +326 (23.5%); Macklin Celebrini is +115 (46.5% implied) against a model fair price of +188 (34.7%). That does not mean they will not score; it means the price leaves less room than the probability supports.

How We Price NHL Anytime Goal Scorer Bets

Each skater's scoring rate is built from goals per game and expected goals per game from last season, the most recent full sample. This season's games begin to blend in once a player reaches 10 games: 50% at 10 games, 60% at 15, 80% at 20 and 100% from 25. That rate is adjusted for tonight's opponent using goals allowed per game to the skater's position, and for the opposing starting goalie's 5-on-5 goals allowed against expected. Each adjustment is cut in half to avoid overreacting. The result is converted to a probability of scoring at least once. The model recalculates as starting goalies, injuries and prices change.

Data sources: the NHL's official stats and rosters, MoneyPuck expected goals, Shot Propz (position-based goals against, built on MoneyPuck data), DailyFaceOff for starting goalies, power-play units and injuries, and DraftKings prices delivered through Optic Odds.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is an anytime goal scorer bet?

It is a bet that a named player scores at least one goal in the game. Most books include overtime and exclude shootouts, but check your book's rules. If the player does not play, the bet is usually voided.

How do you find value in NHL goal scorer props?

Convert the price to a probability and compare it with your own estimate. A price of +300 implies 25.0% (100 divided by 400). If you believe a player really has a 30% chance, that is a 5-point edge, and the break-even price for 30% is +233: anything longer than that is value, and anything shorter is not. Our tool does this for every skater and shows the result as "Edge."

What do Hot and Due mean in the tool?

Hot flags a skater with four or more goals in his last 10 games at 1.4 times his usual pace. Due flags a skater whose expected goals exceeded his goals by two or more over the same span. Both are context, not predictions, and prices often already reflect them.

Are these picks guaranteed to win?

No. A player with a 30% chance fails to score about 70 times in 100. We began grading the model's pre-game board against final box scores on September 29 and will publish the running results once the sample is large enough to mean something.

About This Analysis

These plays come from RotoWire's Lamp Lab model. The numbers in this article are a snapshot of the model board as of 9:59 AM ET, and the picks were chosen by the rules described above. The widget updates through the day, so where it differs from this article, the widget is newer. Check starting goalies and prices before you bet.