Bailey recently completed his fourteenth season with the Islanders, posting 40-plus points (44) for the fifth time in the past six years. That's the good news. The bad news is that Bailey's average ice time dropped nearly 40 seconds per game to 16:53, while his average time with the man advantage dipped nearly 30 seconds per night to 1:33. The Islanders lack offensive weapons, so they have no choice to run Bailey back out there, but a 33-year-old who has never scored more than 18 goals in any single season isn't much of a fantasy option in most formats.
Now entering his 14th season with the Islanders after being passed over by Seattle in the expansion draft, Bailey is a well-rounded winger who has generally been good for 12-18 goals and 40-50 points in a full season. In 2020-21, however, Bailey scored eight times and added 27 assists in 54 contests - a notable per-game drop-off from his typical career norms -- and he failed to find the net a single time with the man advantage. The latter continued a downward trend for the 31-year-old Bailey, who has seen his power-play production fall from a career-high 31 points in 2017-18 to nine in each of the past two seasons. The 31-year-old did produce a strong postseason performance with six goals and 13 points in 19 games, suggesting the possibility of a regular-season bounce back in 2021-22.
Bailey's 29 assists and 43 points last season were his lowest totals in four campaigns as the Islanders have begun to get more accustomed to their winning but low-scoring ways under coach Barry Trotz's very-structured system. He also had just seven power-play assists, a by-product of a generally ineffective power play as well as a significant decrease in his man-advantage ice time. Bailey averaged 3:01 of power-play ice time in 2017-18, which ranked fourth among Isles forwards, and just 1:48 last season, which ranked sixth. Those assists and power-play points were what made Bailey so valuable in fantasy in the past, and at 31 years old, it's unlikely he makes significant improvements on offense in 2020-21. Nonetheless, he still has 55-point upside, making him a solid mid-to-late-round selection in most formats.
The veteran forward got off to a blistering start, scoring 11 goals and averaging 0.75 points per game before the All-Star break, but he couldn't continue that pace during the second half of the season. Bailey posted five goals and 19 points while registering a minus-7 rating in the final 33 games of the campaign, finishing with 16 goals and 56 points in 82 contests. His 16 goals were only two off his pace from 2017-18, but because of the slow second half, he returned to registering just 40 assists. That's not a bad number, but he had 53 helpers in 2017-18. That said, the drop off can primarily be attributed to him tallying 14 fewer assists on the power play in 2018-19, and in many ways, Bailey's 2017-18 campaign was a career season, so owners shouldn't expect him to repeat those totals going forward. Consistently, he's a 15-to-20 goal scorer with the potential for 50-to-60 points.
Most Islanders skaters will dip in value following the offseason departure of elite center John Tavares, but Bailey is perhaps affected in the worst way after registering a career-high 18 goals and 71 points in 76 games while playing on the top line last season. If Tavares' exit wasn't enough, the writing is on the wall that Bailey will slide down to the second line in 2018-19. Second-year center Mathew Barzal is set to replace Tavares on the top unit, and his chemistry with right wing Jordan Eberle means Bailey likely skates with center Brock Nelson away from the premier scoring line. Bailey mostly played on the second and third lines from 2015-17 and netted only 25 goals and 88 points in 163 games; that's the level of production owners should expect from Bailey in the upcoming season.
The No. 9 pick in the 2008 draft, Bailey spent much of his career up until last year looking like a minor bust -- an NHL regular, but far from a star. However, he made significant strides in 2016-17, tying for 22nd in the NHL in assists with 43; that's as many as more premium names like Jamie Benn, Johnny Gaudreau and Joe Thornton. In addition to that easily career-high assist mark, Bailey also set new personal bests in points (56), shots (173) and average ice time (18:22) while tying his previous personal best in power-play points (12). It's not unusual for players to find a new gear in their late 20s, but that breakout was quite unexpected and well out of line with his career stats. With Jordan Eberle having been brought in to skate on John Tavares’ right side, it may be hard for Bailey to replicate last year’s production, particularly considering his lack of goal-scoring prowess -- his career high in that category is 16. he'll offer some fantasy value if you don't draft him expecting last year’s stats.
Hoping to build off a year in which he scored 41 points in 70 games during the 2014-15 season, Bailey regressed back to his career norm with 32 points in 81 games in 2015-2016. A center in junior, Bailey has found a home playing on the wing during his eight seasons with the Islanders. More of the same shall be expected from Bailey, as Ryan Strome figures to man his natural position at center, joining a strong presence up the middle that includes superstar John Tavares, Brock Nelson and Casey Cizikas. Not your prototypical winger, Bailey has continued to frustrate Isles fans by often electing to pass when a legitimate scoring chance presents itself on his stick. The 2008 ninth-overall pick may be approaching a crossroads in his career as he enters the second-to-last year of his contract with the only team he’s ever known as an NHLer. A swift rebound will be expected from Bailey as he works on the second or third line heading into October.
A lifelong Islander who has been a member of teams both good and bad, Bailey set a career high in points last season, despite squandering numerous chances right in front of the net to build those totals even higher. Playing alongside John Tavares for chunks of last season, Bailey scored 15 goals and chipped in 26 assists in 70 games. This season, he should play in the Isles' bottom-six ranks, though he'll at least get the chance to work with skilled, veteran linemates in Nikolay Kulemin and Mikhail Grabovski, who should still provide ample opportunities for Bailey to score points. While he may see a drop in his time on the power play, when given a chance with the man advantage, Bailey has shown himself to be an adept point scorer, adding two power-play goals and two assists last season. With a reduced role in the offense compared to a few years ago, Bailey is a low-end fantasy prospect who still has point-scoring prowess when provided enough opportunities.
Bailey has had an up-and-down career thus far with the Islanders. There are times where he looks like he will justify his first-round selection in the 2010 draft, and other times where it looks like he's just going through the motions. With the Islanders having acquired more depth on offense in the offseason, the team no longer has a huge stake in Bailey’s success. He’s currently ticketed to start the season on the third line, but could earn a promotion if his production warrants it. That being said, it’s no secret that the Islanders have 16 forwards on one-way contracts, which may lead to at least one forward being traded. Given Bailey’s relative youth and pedigree, it wouldn’t be surprising if a team became interested in taking him off the Islanders’ hands.
Bailey had 11 goals and 19 points in 38 games for the Islanders last year, by far his best season to date, and it was enough to earn him a long-term contract from the Isles. What was even more impressive was that Bailey finally started to look like a true offensive threat during the second half of the lockout-shortened season. Bailey will remain on the second line and there are no plans to give him playing time with John Tavares but he can still make an impact offensively playing with Kyle Okposo and Frans Nielsen. Where top prospect Ryan Strome plays - if/when he makes the team - could also help Bailey's value as Strome is the kind of player that the defense will have to account for when he is on the ice. This could make life even easier for Bailey if those two play on the same line.
Not that Bailey was ever expected to be a superstar when taken in the 1st round of the 2008 draft, but more was expected than the 47 goals he's posted over the last four seasons. Despite seeing time in the AHL to work on his game, Bailey has looked good on the penalty kill, but that's not why he was drafted in the first round. Bailey still plays on the second line as of now but once the Isles' talent in the AHL starts to make their way to the big club, Bailey could be relegated to third line duty.
Bailey was a disappointment last year with only 11 goals, 17 assists, and a minus-13 rating. His season was so bad that the Isles sent him to the AHL for a few weeks to get his game on track. This may have been a way of admitting that the team made a mistake and rushed Bailey to the NHL after selecting him in the first round of the 2008 draft. The center is still a part of the team's future and will be given every chance to live up to his top billing . He now has better talent around him, but is no better than the club's second-line center and that assumes that this year's first-round pick Ryan Strome does not make the team.
The Islanders' 2008 first-round draft choice has yet to light up the NHL but does have some value. His sophomore campaign showed improvement in all the important categories and the Islanders are starting to get better depth, which should surround Bailey with more talent. The one knock on Bailey is that he looks to pass rather than shoot. On some teams this may not be a bad thing, but with the lack of goal scoring talent around him coupled with the fact that he shoots the puck quite well, he could help the Islanders and his fantasy team by putting the puck on net more often.
Bailey was expected to call Bridgeport home last year, but the team opted to throw the rookie into the NHL mix right away. He had a quiet campaign for the most part (25 points in 68 games), but definitely showed signs of being a capable center down the road. He has been working on his conditioning and strength since the season ended, so he is already showing maturity and a desire to better himself. While you shouldn�t expect a huge leap in points in his second season, a bump up is in order (especially if he centers Tavares).
Bailey is known for his playmaking ability and hockey smarts. Despite the Islanders' weakness up the middle, he is not expected to make the jump from the OHL to the NHL this year. Expect the team to give him a chance to hone his skills a bit before testing him out with the big club.
