Neutral Zone Wrap: Evan's Underachievers

Neutral Zone Wrap
Evan Berofsky, RotoWire.com

Now that we've got you remembering hockey again, go ahead and forget some things about the sport. History of labor issues between the union and management? Never happened. Players using sticks as weapons? Doesn't sound familiar. Controversies over goalie equipment size? OK, now that sounds made up.

As one would want to push these ideas out of mind, the same could be said for assessing player worth. Where last week's column covered those who could be underestimated, we now look at the other side. If you're not a fantasy veteran, then you probably don't realize the annual tradition of overvaluing talent.

There are many ways a player can become overrated but here are the most common examples:

- Player with a decent point haul in his most recent season (without any similar previous stats)
- Player with an established resume, even if injury-prone
- Player with an established resume, even if old as dirt
- Player point total enhanced by a much better linemate

A player categorized by one or more of these criteria may be able to overcome their shortcomings, although this may prove difficult should their situation change. For example, if they have switched teams during the offseason, are not 100% physically, have others ready to usurp them, or lost their main provider, then there's a good chance they won't be able to improve or ever maintain their output.

The following contains a few folks who are set to disappoint. Some will end up producing, just not at the high level most expect. The others, well, good luck on your recent purchase. And no refunds:

(For a similar take on the subject, check out Dan Pennucci's Draft Kit column on Busts)

Brian Elliott, G, St. Louis

Yes, the Blues own a formidable defensive unit. And yes, they should once again contend for the Western Conference crown. And also yes, you'll only find one established netminder on their roster. But when the anointed #1 has never officially served in this role and the main backup (Jake Allen) comes in as the reigning AHL Goalie of the Year and one of the franchise's premier prospects, then there's no guarantee who will finish in this capacity. The career numbers (2.48 GAA, .911 SV%, 25 shutouts in 235 NHL appearances) certainly help Elliott's cause, but if you're banking on 65-plus starts then you should probably look elsewhere.

Marian Gaborik, F, Los Angeles

The Kings pretty much saved Gaborik from Columbus when they acquired him in March - and he paid them back in full. Not only did the Slovakian veteran impress during his brief introduction (16 points in 19 regular season contests) but he raised the bar (22 in 26, including a league-leading 14 goals) in helping LA bring back the Cup. The upside for Gaborik can be found in the new seven-year contract and his solid partnership with Anze Kopitar. The downside lies firmly in his repeated inability to either stay healthy or be happy in one city long-term. The latter point is moot, since you're only concerned with the next six-plus months. But if you think Gaborik is a shoo-in to top 30 goals and 60 points, the extended list of medical records will have you lowering your expectations.

Marian Hossa, F, Chicago

The ageless wonder cranked out another 30 goals but only managed a pair of markers during the playoffs (although he did total 12 assists). At 35, Hossa is still being asked to contribute in a fairly major way and he will no doubt see his share of power-play duty - most likely on the second shift. The early reports put him on the top line with Jonathan Toews but don't think Patrick Kane won't supplant him if shakiness sets in. While Hossa's attacking skills appear intact, what doesn't look solid is a repeat of any 60-plus point performance.

James Neal, F, Nashville

Pittsburgh simply couldn't afford to keep another high-priced forward on the payroll and opted to ship Neal to Tennessee on Draft Day. The six-year winger has mostly been known as that guy who scored all those goals (100, to be exact) alongside Evgeni Malkin but that's an unfair assessment considering his earlier success in Dallas (131 in 214). His play slipped terribly in the postseason (four in 13) but that blemish shouldn't carry over. What will end up hurting the Whitby native is the lack of a bona fide elite center in Nashville (what, Mike Ribiero, Olli Jokinen, and Derek Roy don't excite you?!). Neal will most likely lead the Preds in scoring but you may be in for a letdown if you believe he'll exceed 70.

Dion Phaneuf, D, Toronto

With Jake Gardiner and Morgan Rielly already on the fast track to stardom, the Leafs captain will immediately have to prove his worth if he wants to remain among the club's leading offensive blueliners. Long gone are the days when Phaneuf would garner Norris consideration for his scoring capabilities (peaking at 60 points and a runner-up finish to Nicklas Lidstrom in 2007-08); it's just that he's built his game into a more responsible role. Add in Cody Franson to the D mix and there's the belief Phaneuf won't even hit the 30-point mark.

(Honorable mention: Derick Brassard, F, NY Rangers; Brian Campbell, D, Florida; Tobias Enstrom, D, Winnipeg; Jason Spezza, F, Dallas; Henrik Zetterberg, F, Detroit)