This article is part of our From the Press Box series.
FROM THE PRESS BOX
Paul Bruno, RotoWire.com
Top surprises of the first half season
The "sidekicks" theory explained ... I have touted this strategy for years. Today I will cite several players who have fit this role.
Sidekicks Theory
In every hockey pool that fantasy owners engage in, the top stars will always go first, just like in any other sport. After the first three rounds are complete, the selection process becomes a bit of a "crap shoot" - an exercise in educated guessing.
What sets hockey aside from most other sports pools is the fact that team situations (composition), line combinations, defense pairings and even goalies situations can dictate expectations and results.
If we look around the NHL we will find several of those examples to explain the possible gains to be had when we consider those players who play next to the stars.
In Vancouver, there has always been some intrigue around who will play the open wing position next to the Sedin Twins. Daniel and Henrik have been very consistent and very healthy players who have led this club in scoring in each of the past 10 seasons. A wide range of wingers with no long-term fit to be found so far has joined them. So, this year, Vrbata was handed that assignment, when he was picked up in free agency last summer.
Vrbata has always been a good scorer, tallying 215 goals in 792 games played prior to this season. It was felt that
FROM THE PRESS BOX
Paul Bruno, RotoWire.com
Top surprises of the first half season
The "sidekicks" theory explained ... I have touted this strategy for years. Today I will cite several players who have fit this role.
Sidekicks Theory
In every hockey pool that fantasy owners engage in, the top stars will always go first, just like in any other sport. After the first three rounds are complete, the selection process becomes a bit of a "crap shoot" - an exercise in educated guessing.
What sets hockey aside from most other sports pools is the fact that team situations (composition), line combinations, defense pairings and even goalies situations can dictate expectations and results.
If we look around the NHL we will find several of those examples to explain the possible gains to be had when we consider those players who play next to the stars.
In Vancouver, there has always been some intrigue around who will play the open wing position next to the Sedin Twins. Daniel and Henrik have been very consistent and very healthy players who have led this club in scoring in each of the past 10 seasons. A wide range of wingers with no long-term fit to be found so far has joined them. So, this year, Vrbata was handed that assignment, when he was picked up in free agency last summer.
Vrbata has always been a good scorer, tallying 215 goals in 792 games played prior to this season. It was felt that he, being fluent in the more free-flowing European style of play employed by the Sedins, would be a good complement to them.
The early returns suggest that hunch was correct. Vrbata leads the Canucks with 18 goals in 42 games and is poised to set a career high if he keeps up with that pace the rest of the way.
His profile in fantasy pools prior to this season was that of a second or third line winger, who would likely have been a middle to late round pick in most pools. Now, that he has established himself as a top goal scorer for the Canucks, his profile is much higher and he should go earlier in next year's drafts.
Of course, those fantasy owners who grabbed him in keeper rotisserie leagues have got a cheap keeper on their hands.
This former second overall draft selection, by Boston in 2010, never really got first line minutes during his first three NHL seasons with the Bruins, who eventually soured on him, and they eventually traded him over to the Dallas Stars. He could not unseat their one-two punch of Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci who are still entrenched in those scoring line roles. Dallas, however, was a team in need of potential front line players. Last season he got that chance with the Stars and almost immediately formed a potent chemistry with team captain Jamie Benn.
The result was a breakout season, with 84 points in 80 games.
This season, his trajectory is even higher with a league-leading 28 goals and 52 points (second in the NHL, at this time) to show that last season was not a fluke. He has clearly taken advantage of his situation and his quality linemate to reach this new plateau.
In Nashville, the Predator defense corps is lead by the dominant presence of Shea Weber. The big, hard-shooting and strong two-way blueliner logs big minutes and is the quarterback on the club's power play unit. Last season, Roman Josi earned significant playing time alongside Weber and the results were impressive. He totaled 13 goals and 27 assists in 72 games played. Clearly he had built a solid chemistry with the Predators captain.
This season that pairing has remained intact right out of camp. In addition, the Predators brought in James Neal, Mike Ribeiro and Filip Forsberg to bolster their offensive units. The results have translated into a most impressive first half season that sees the Preds contending with all of the Western Conference heavyweights at the top of the standings.
Josi has joined that scoring party to the tune of seven goals and 28 points in 45 games. He is clearly on a pace to smash last season's impressive totals and will be another great reward to any fantasy owner who recognized the connection between him and Weber.
This big defenseman was very highly regarded when he was drafted first overall, by St, Louis, in the 2006 Amateur Draft. Things never really worked out with the Blues in three seasons, though he did have one pretty good year there. He was acquired in a trade by Colorado during a time where the Avalanche was drafting a number of highly skilled forwards. He was expected to be something of a complement to that group, leading the attack from his defensive post.
It had been an unproductive transition for Johnson for his first two years in Colorado, largely due the youth and inexperience on this roster. Last season, that all changed. The young guns found their groove and Johnson chipped in with nine goals, 39 points and a career-best (+5) rating.
Fantasy owners who recognized this change in Johnson's production would have taken a chance on him this year. Even though the team has taken a backward step, he has continued to produce good numbers, with a league-leading 12 goals (defense only) to go along with 11 assists, while anchoring this potent power play once again.
Goalies stats are becoming more of a component in rotisserie leagues in recent years, so fantasy owners have to be cognizant of situations in the crease, too. Of course, we know that the Rinnes, Prices and Lundqvist will be drafted early, but what about many of the other teams. Is there a clear number in all NHL rosters? Clearly that answer is no.
In Anaheim, the Ducks have become an annual power to be reckoned with, largely due to their potent roster that has been among the top scoring teams in recent years. Last season, there was a changing of the guard in goal, where Jonas Hiller had held the number one job for several years. Well, he faltered in the second half of last season and gave way to Frederik Andersen, when the Ducks looked at an alternative to find some stability. He delivered in a big way, earning 20 wins in 25 decisions and posted an impressive 2.29 g.a.a.
The Ducks were impressed enough with those numbers and with the knowledge that highly touted prospect John Gibson was waiting in the wings, they let Hiller walk away in free agency (to Calgary). The vigilant fantasy owner would very likely have picked up Andersen late in the past season and should have considered the possibilities in keeper leagues to start this campaign. If he (she) did, there is much to celebrate with the 25 wins and 2.28 g.a.a. he has posted this season.
In Washington, the signing of defensive-minded coach Barry Trotz was met with a high sense of expectation. This was due to the fact that other coaches had tried to coax a better two-way game out of this roster led by offensive minded players, like power winger Alexander Ovechkin and defenseman Mike Green, without much sustained success. That inability has kept the Caps from enjoying much playoff success.
Trotz's defensive acumen was successful for a Nashville franchise that did not have the offensive skill of this Caps team through much of his 15 years in Nashville.
Nonetheless, one player who could be the huge beneficiary of a team buy-in for Trotz's system was starting goalie Braden Holtby. This five-year veteran was a mid-round draft in 2008, but put in a lot of work to elevate his status as a solid prospect and benefitted greatly fro a heavy workload on a very good AHL team in Hershey, to elevate his status. In his first four NHL seasons, he showed that was a very capable puck stopper, keeping his annual goals against under 2.90 per game in ever season as a pro.
As this season unfolded, he has played extremely well and the team's improved structure and more defensive posture have combined to produce 22 wins and a glittering 2.26 g.a.a., which is among the best in the entire NHL. Once again, knowledgeable fantasy owners would have looked at this possibility and reaped the rewards of this performance level.
Anticipating these possibilities is working for me, as I enjoy tremendous success with my fantasy teams so far (please, no injuries) and that success could be yours, too, if you look out for these and other similar opportunities around the NHL.
