Neutral Zone Wrap: Beware of Recent Success

Neutral Zone Wrap: Beware of Recent Success

This article is part of our Neutral Zone Wrap series.

Evaluating worthy pickups in fantasy is like doing quality control; you intend to do a complete check but you'll probably stop when you think you've found a solution. This process will save on time but it could end up becoming a disaster.

As you head on your championship quest – or at least aspirations of cashing – you want to seek those last few additions to fill out your roster. Looking only at stats will lend a certain viewpoint, but sometimes deeper analysis is required to make the best decision.

It's easy to focus on recent numbers and be influenced by them. Unless you also consider other factors, like age, durability or situation, then you're not doing a complete job. Although some players may be excelling of late, there's no guarantee they can keep it going. Here are a few skaters who have been streaking but the history and intangibles warn a downturn is coming:

(Note: Like last week, we won't mention anyone from the trade deadline column. And once again, no goalies to see here.)
Stats as of Monday, March 23

Francois Beauchemin, D (43 percent owned)

With breakout star Sami Vatanen (36 points) healthy, and newcomer James Wisniewski (only two in seven since arriving) already a fixture on the blueline, the soon-to-be 35-year old (two in eight) is starting to lose traction in the Ducks' quacking order. Beauchemin, who had a string of five goals in 12 games, continues to earn a little bit of

Evaluating worthy pickups in fantasy is like doing quality control; you intend to do a complete check but you'll probably stop when you think you've found a solution. This process will save on time but it could end up becoming a disaster.

As you head on your championship quest – or at least aspirations of cashing – you want to seek those last few additions to fill out your roster. Looking only at stats will lend a certain viewpoint, but sometimes deeper analysis is required to make the best decision.

It's easy to focus on recent numbers and be influenced by them. Unless you also consider other factors, like age, durability or situation, then you're not doing a complete job. Although some players may be excelling of late, there's no guarantee they can keep it going. Here are a few skaters who have been streaking but the history and intangibles warn a downturn is coming:

(Note: Like last week, we won't mention anyone from the trade deadline column. And once again, no goalies to see here.)
Stats as of Monday, March 23

Francois Beauchemin, D (43 percent owned)

With breakout star Sami Vatanen (36 points) healthy, and newcomer James Wisniewski (only two in seven since arriving) already a fixture on the blueline, the soon-to-be 35-year old (two in eight) is starting to lose traction in the Ducks' quacking order. Beauchemin, who had a string of five goals in 12 games, continues to earn a little bit of power-play time but can't be expected to see 25 minutes and rack up significant opportunities while behind four better options.

David Booth, F (4 percent owned)

It may be tempting to grab someone excelling on a club that really doesn't care about winning or assembling coherent combinations, but that burning urge should be extinguished immediately. Even though the former Panther, who had seven points in six games before laying four goose eggs, is making the most of his audition for next season's Toronto Marlies, the Leafs have already started to break out the reserves. So, if you get excited from having Booth skating alongside Trevor Smith (one in 10) or Richard Panik (two in eight), then you should probably consult your nearest fantasy practitioner.

Brad Boyes, F (16 percent owned)

Boyes (at 70 combined points in two years) has become a mainstay during his short stint in the Sunshine State and his veteran leadership is always welcome on a young squad. But the reality is that he is getting on in years (he'll turn 33 next month) and Florida's next generation (with Brandon Pirri and Jimmy Hayes serving as the latest examples) has finally come into its own. Boyes (two in nine) can still be of service but not at the level someone with a first-line/second-PP role should be.

Michael Frolik, F (39 percent owned)

Not a bad effort since being bumped up to the top unit (eight-game point streak) but beware, Frolik has teased us repeatedly in the past. High draft pick (10th in 2006), promising start with Florida (consecutive 40-plus point seasons), collapse in Chicago (couldn't stay healthy), Prairie resurrection (42 last year). With both Bryan Little and Dustin Byfuglien set to come back within the next week, though the latter could be back on D, Frolik's pace will undoubtedly drop off.

Carl Soderberg, F (53 percent owned)

When somebody works hard, that person often receives a promotion or some form of incentive. And then there are times when neither happens, as is the case of Soderberg (38 in 73). The Swede seems to give 1,000 percent every night and yet, even with David Krejci gone, he remains relegated as a third line center. Unfortunately, Soderberg (five in 21) is much more valuable to the real-life Bruins than your make-believe lineup.

Dishonorable mentions:Steve Bernier, F, New Jersey (1 percent owned); Troy Brouwer, F, Washington (49 percent owned); Justin Fontaine, F, Minnesota (3 percent owned); David Savard, D, Columbus (45 percent owned); Alexander Semin, F, Carolina (29 percent owned)

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Evan Berofsky
Evan Berofsky enjoys writing. Seriously. When he’s not trying to shove hockey miscellany down your throat, he gets his kicks playing tournament Scrabble(TM). If you have anything to say about Evan’s work (or need any hot word tips), feel free to contact him at eberofsky@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter (@evanberofsky).
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