This article is part of our Blue Line Buzz series.
The key to winning playoff pools is to pick players on teams that will go deep. A point-per-game player won't do much good if his team gets bounced in the first round because the player who averages half as many points will eventually catch up once he plays enough games.
The good news is that it's possible to win by picking players only from a few select teams; the bad news is that the field is wide open this year. This is especially true in the Western conference. Picking one of St. Louis, Minnesota, Chicago or Nashville to come out of the Central division bracket is harder than a Mensa test, and Vancouver or Calgary could backdoor its way into the conference finals, especially if Winnipeg and Anaheim beat each other to smithereens. That makes defensemen from the West a lot less desirable, though if one had to pick, St. Louis would be the best bet.
In the Eastern conference, Tampa Bay and the Blueshirts in New York are considered the favorites, which means players from Detroit and Pittsburgh are undesirable, even with their championship pedigrees. Montreal shouldn't have much trouble handling Ottawa, while Barry Trotz's experience and Washington's slightly better goaltending and depth may give them the edge against the Islanders.
Only seven of the league's top 10 scoring defensemen made the playoffs, and half of those will get bounced in the first round. Only one of Erik Karlsson and P.K. Subban will advance to the second round, while
The key to winning playoff pools is to pick players on teams that will go deep. A point-per-game player won't do much good if his team gets bounced in the first round because the player who averages half as many points will eventually catch up once he plays enough games.
The good news is that it's possible to win by picking players only from a few select teams; the bad news is that the field is wide open this year. This is especially true in the Western conference. Picking one of St. Louis, Minnesota, Chicago or Nashville to come out of the Central division bracket is harder than a Mensa test, and Vancouver or Calgary could backdoor its way into the conference finals, especially if Winnipeg and Anaheim beat each other to smithereens. That makes defensemen from the West a lot less desirable, though if one had to pick, St. Louis would be the best bet.
In the Eastern conference, Tampa Bay and the Blueshirts in New York are considered the favorites, which means players from Detroit and Pittsburgh are undesirable, even with their championship pedigrees. Montreal shouldn't have much trouble handling Ottawa, while Barry Trotz's experience and Washington's slightly better goaltending and depth may give them the edge against the Islanders.
Only seven of the league's top 10 scoring defensemen made the playoffs, and half of those will get bounced in the first round. Only one of Erik Karlsson and P.K. Subban will advance to the second round, while Dennis Wideman (Calgary), Roman Josi (Nashville) and John Carlson (Washington) could all fail to advance as well. Kris Letang (Pittsburgh) has been essentially ruled out for the rest of the season, which means 10th-ranked Keith Yandle may be the best pick of the bunch, but even he faces some internal competition from Ryan McDonagh, who scored 17 points in 25 games in last year's playoffs.
Without further ado, here's your playoff primer for defensemen. Rather than ranking all the defensemen in one big list, they are separated by team since overall rankings will depend on which teams you think will get eliminated first.
New York Rangers
That's right, McDonagh is my top option for the Rangers despite being outscored by Yandle 52-33 this season, though he's above only by a small margin. The big reasons are McDonagh's heavier workload and his proven ability to score in the playoffs. Yandle's minutes are still too constrained by head coach Alain Vigneault's stubborn use of matchups and zone starts, and his 11-point performance in 21 games with the Rangers is slightly below his production rate with the Coyotes. If the Rangers get lots of special teams play against Pittsburgh, Yandle is the better option, but McDonagh is undoubtedly the team's best defenseman. Staal and Girardi are fair options, but if the Rangers' top two aren't available, it may be worth rolling the dice with the offensively talented but quickly aging Boyle.
Tampa Bay Lightning
The Lightning are really good and their high-scoring forwards present some value added to their defensemen. Hedman is the cream of the crop and should be a fixture in almost all formats, while Stralman is a sneaky good pick for those who think the Lightning can go all the way. Carle and Garrison are good options if Hedman or Stralman aren't available, but the edge may go to Carle with his slight edge in ice time and ability to move the puck up the ice.
St. Louis Blues
Shattenkirk is an excellent consolation prize for those who missed out on Pietrangelo, who is ranked higher because he generally plays more minutes and isn't just coming back from surgery. The pair combined for eight points in 14 games last year, spearheading the attack from the blue line. Michalek has looked good in limited playing time and Gunnarsson is really underrated; both players are better options than defense-first Barret Jackman and the increasingly underwhelming minutes-eater Jay Bouwmeester. The Blues are considered a favorite in the West, but drew the unluckiest matchup with Minnesota.
Winnipeg Jets
Byfuglien and Myers alone may be enough to offset the Ducks' duo of Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry. The two hulking defensemen are built for the playoffs: big, strong and fast. Byfuglien, in particular, thrives when the game's tempo and physicality is ramped up, which makes playoff hockey against an aggressive team like the Ducks such a palatable scenario for him to run the table. Myers has 15 points in 24 games with the Jets, giving him a case to be the team's top defenseman, but Byfuglien's 18 goals are hard to ignore, and he scored 14 goals in 39 games over two years in the playoffs for the Blackhawks. Trouba and Enstrom are also good bets to score some points, but this clearly isn't the season Trouba is taking a big leap.
Vancouver Canucks
It says something about the Canucks when their second-best option is a one-trick pony masquerading as an elite power-play quarterback. Weber has a fantastic point shot, but Edler is still the team's go-to player and he's not a bad choice with 28 points in 59 career playoff games. Hamhuis, slotted at a distant No. 3, needed 58 games to score his first of the season, but he does tend to take more risks and rush the puck more often than Tanev or Bieksa. The Canucks have the slight edge against the Flames, but will run into a lot of trouble with the winner of the Jets/Ducks series. The Ducks always seem to have Vancouver's number, while the Jets have the size and speed that the Canucks may not be able to match. Even if there is a strong belief that the Canucks can sneak into the conference finals, outside of Edler, there are few players worth owning.
Nashville Predators
Weber and Josi do so much of the Preds' work that Ellis almost isn't worth mentioning. Though Josi outscored Weber by 10 points in the regular season and is much better at advancing the puck, Weber has the better track record and fires more shots on goal, which gives him opportunities for goals and assists. Ellis is an intriguing option but plays far less than Weber and Josi, and the same could be said for Seth Jones and Cody Franson. The Preds can absolutely beat the Patrick Kane-less Blackhawks and have a better chance of beating the winner of the Blues/Wild series, anyway. The only caveat is, how much can Peter Laviolette lean on his top pair before he has to turn to the other four guys?
Minnesota Wild
The Wild have a very good chance of beating the Blues and could ride a hot Devan Dubnyk all the way to the conference finals, but they may not have the elite depth to pull it off. Suter represents the team's only A-list defenseman, while the other four fall somewhere between "intriguing" to "if only I had 10 spots for defensemen." Spurgeon is the most dependable point getter, Brodin and Dumba are huge upside players, and Scandella is coming off a career season with 11 goals. If the Wild had drawn Nashville or Chicago, it would've given stronger impetus to pick a Wild defenseman, but against the Blues there's a lot of doubt creeping in. No way the Blues lose another first-round matchup, right? Especially if it's not Chicago or Los Angeles?
Anaheim Ducks
Vatanen led the Ducks with 12 goals, but also had a really inflated shooting percentage compared to other defensemen. The Ducks have too many bodies on the blue line and head coach Bruce Boudreau will have to find a way to establish some sort of hierarchy and game plan for ice time, though Lindholm should still be the team's ace as their best skater and smartest player. Wisniewski coughs up the puck but has humongous upside on offense, and to a lesser extent so does Fowler, but he doesn't shoot nearly as much as Wisniewski. Despres has really been a big contributor for the Ducks since coming from Pittsburgh, but he is only an option in deep leagues.
Chicago Blackhawks
Really, the only player worth taking is Keith, but there's always a chance that Seabrook, who scored 15 points in 16 playoff games last year, will suddenly catch fire and get all the bounces. Keith has been great for the depleted Blackhawks this season, who may have finally found out how much they miss Patrick Kane with a matchup against a fast and offensively skilled team in Nashville. Hjalmarsson and Oduya are solid defenseman who don't up the points, while David Rundblad's just not consistent enough to be a dependable option.
Washington Capitals
Carlson has been the Caps' best defenseman all year and should retain his top spot going into the playoffs. Green is still a defensive liability at times and hasn't had much success scoring goals in the playoffs. He did score twice in seven games last year, but that's with a shooting percentage well above his career average. Niskanen plays a lot of minutes which gives him lots of opportunity, and his ability to move the puck puts him ahead of Karl Alzner and Brooks Orpik, who will concentrate even more on defending and getting the puck out of the zone. The danger with picking the Caps is that they may only last one round, since they'll play the winner of the Rangers/Penguins series.
New York Islanders
Like their first-round opponent, the Islanders defensemen just don't seem like very smart picks because there's a good chance they'll lose to the Caps, and even if they manage to beat the Caps, likely won't get past the Rangers. Leddy represents the team's lone potentially-elite offensive talent, particularly on even strength. Boychuk and Hamonic are only good if the Isles go on a long playoff run, and in both cases will likely be tasked with shutdown roles against Nicklas Backstrom and Alex Ovechkin.
Calgary Flames
Brodie fell off the map so much in the second half of the season that it became clear Russell was the team's engine on defense after Mark Giordano, whose absence will be sorely missed. Russell won't score many points, but he'll certainly be on the ice a lot since the Flames will be clamping down even more on defense in the playoffs. Wideman is the team's lone offensive threat, especially on the power play, but hasn't seen playoff action in three years and has only one goal in 44 postseason appearances. The Flames need steady goaltending and timely scoring on offense to beat the Canucks, who don't have any significant injuries and managed to rest a few key players in Game 82. Even if the Flames beat the Canucks, keep in mind they do not compare as favorably against the Jets or Ducks.
Montreal Canadiens
The Habs should have no problems with the Sens, but will run into a lot of trouble in the next round when they draw the winner of Tampa Bay/Detroit. Assuming the Lightning win, the Habs' playoff run will stop there, since they don't have the depth to advance. That makes Habs defensemen difficult to commit to in a month-long pool, though taking a chance with Subban might still pay off. Jeff Petry is an intriguing option with seven points in 19 games with the Habs, but he lacks experience and will likely be the No. 3 option behind Markov.
Detroit Red Wings
Never count out Mike Babcock's squads, but no matter what kind of adjustments he makes, the Wings aren't likely to beat Tampa Bay. There's no bona fide option for Detroit, anyway, with Kronwall likely being the only desirable pick. In five playoff games last year, Kronwall was the only Wings defenseman to score a point. He's helped by Zidlicky this year, but the Czech veteran has cooled off considerably after a hot start and may find Tampa's speedy forwards tough to handle.
Pittsburgh Penguins
With Kris Letang (concussion), Christian Ehrhoff (concussion) and Olli Maatta (shoulder) unavailable, and Derrick Pouliot (upper body) likely to join that list, the Pens' defense doesn't look good at all. Pulling off an upset of the Rangers would be a miracle, and with such low chances of success on a depleted roster, there's really no defenseman worth picking from Pittsburgh. Martin presents the steadiest option, and Cole and new call-up Dumoulin have some upside, but none are particularly appetizing.
Ottawa Senators
The only defenseman worth picking from the Canadian capital is the team captain. The Sens are flying high and the Habs don't have Max Pacioretty, but judging by the way Carey Price has played this season, it's safe to assume he can probably win this series all by himself. Despite being the league's leading scorer among defensemen, Karlsson's just not a good pick because of his weak long-term prospects. Those who think the Sens can be this year's Cinderella can also consider Cody Ceci or Patrick Wiercioch as dark horse guys who can score a big goal, but they could still get outscored by Marc Methot, who plays a lot of minutes and may mooch some points off Karlsson.
