NHL Barometer: Three Types of Busts

NHL Barometer, 2015 Busts
Jan Levine, RotoWire.com

As with sleepers, most "busts" fall into three types. There are those who are overrated on the basis of the situation they're in, those that are overrated because they're coming off a career-year, and there are those who are big names but overrated based on pure merit. Situational busts are such because of where they play, whose line they are on, or because of the personnel changes on the team. Career-year busts are pretty self-explanatory - you don't want to get caught up chasing last year's regular season or playoff stats. Big-name busts usually consist of players returning from career seasons, never to return to such heights, or are in some cases overhyped rookies that aren't ready for prime time just yet.

Situational Busts

Ryan Spooner. BOS, C - Let me state upfront I am a huge Spooner fan, but his line placement could cap his production. As of now, he is slated to fill the third line center role in the Hub. If Spooner gets second line power play time, it could result in increased production. But unless Patrice Bergeron or David Krejci misses time, Spooner won't play in the top-six, capping his output.

Scott Hartnell, CLM, LW - Hartnell made Philadelphia look foolish for dealing him to Columbus for R.J. Umberger. The change of scenery did wonders for Hartnell, as he scored 28 goals and 32 assists. If Hartnell lines up in the top-six, a season similar to last year or at worse his 2013-14 results could be in the cards, but as of now he is slated for third line duty. Playing there would result in a decline in production.

Johan Franzen, DET, RW - Will the Moose be healthy? That honestly is the key question. Detroit in the past has scratched players late in the year to keep them on the ice in the playoffs. With Franzen, his injury history makes him a hard player to rely upon. It's a risk-reward question, and as long as you can deal with the risk, the reward may be there but there is substantial downside as well.

Kevin Bieksa, ANA, D - Bieksa moved from a good to great situation, going from Vancouver to Anaheim. In addition, he netted a two-year extension from the Ducks. But, unless you are in a league that uses hits or blocked shots, Bieksa won't provide you much due to the other fine d-men in Anaheim and his decline in production the past several seasons.

Kari Lehtonen/Antti Niemi, DAL, G - Quick, who is the starting goalie in Dallas? Is it Niemi? Lehtonen? Both? That is the key question when evaluating Lehtonen and Niemi. Make the right call, and you are golden, the wrong one, and you have wasted a roster spot. Plus there's the adage that "... if you have two goalies, you don't really have one...," so choose carefully.

Career-Year Busts

Sam Gagner, PHI, C - Gagner has never reached his potential, settling mainly in the 40-point range, as he did again last season while tallying 41 points. He came into to last year on a role, scoring 38 points (14 goals, 24 assists) in his final 48 games. Gagner went to Arizona prior to last year and then was traded - or dumped depending on your view - to the Flyers. It looks like he will play on the left side of center Vincent Lecavalier with R.J. Umberger on the right, each of who is looking to regain their prior form. Gagner may have a nice year but don't expect a major spike.

Rick Nash, NYR, RW - Before every Rangers fan threatens to tie me to the Freedom Tower, hear me out. After all, I am a Rangers fan. Nash had a magical season scoring 42 goals, but he did slow in the second half and in the playoffs. In addition, his shooting percentage was 13.8%, his best mark in six years. While I fully expect him to have another solid year, count on 32-35 goals, not 40-plus.

Nick Foligno, CLM, LW - Foligno had the breakthrough season many expected him to have coming into to last year by scoring 31 goals and handing out 42 assists. He was the beneficiary of a 17.0% shooting percentage. While that seems high - and is to an extent - he did post a 16.2% mark the prior year. In addition, Foligno should skate on a line with Ryan Johansen and Brandon Saad on the Jackets' top line. So why is he here? There are more weapons all around in Columbus, plus he should have a slight drop in shooting percentage and average under 2.5 shots per game. Foligno should have a good year, but expecting 30+ goals might be a bit of a stretch.

Trevor Daley, CHI, D - Daley had a career year last season in Dallas, during which he posted 16 goals and 38 points in 68 games. Now, he gets an opportunity in the Windy City having come over as part of the Patrick Sharp deal. On paper, that sounds wonderful, since he is expected to play a key role on the power play. However, his 14.2% shooting percentage will decline, and he goes from an offensive juggernaut to one that is middling and his porous own-zone play could land him on the bench at times.

Devan Dubnyk, MIN, G - Coming into the 2014-15 season, Dubnyk seemed destined to be a journeyman goalie. He played for three teams in 2013-14 and opened the 2014-15 season as a backup in Arizona. Then a trade made all the difference, as Dubnyk was dealt to Minnesota and exploded. In 39 games for the Wild, he went 27-9-2 with a 1.78 GAA, .936 save percentage and five shutouts. While I expect him to have another solid season in Minnseota, counting on those kinds of numbers again would be a major mistake.

Big Name Busts

Brad Richards, DET, C - Richards, who was bought out by the Rangers after the 2013-14 season, signed a one-year deal with Chicago. As the Blackhawks' second-line center next to Patrick Kane, Richards notched 12 goals and 37 points in 76 regular-season games with Chicago, before adding three goals and 14 points in 23 postseason games. He now moves to his third Original Six team, signing with Detroit. With Pavel Datsyuk dealing with injuries, Richards could be Detroit's first line center but don't expect his production to be at that level.

Brock Nelson, NYI, LW - Nelson began the season on fire and entered the beginning of January with 14 goals. However, he would finish with only six tallies the rest of the way, partially due to him moving off of John Tavares' line. Nelson is slated to start 2015-16 skating next to Tavares and Kyle Okposo on the team's top line, but Anders Lee is right behind him. If a switch occurs, which I believe it will, Nelson's value takes a major hit.

Drew Stafford, WPG, RW -Stafford, who was acquired from Buffalo in February, finished up the 2014-15 season with 18 goals and 43 points in 76 games overall, but his production picked up with the Jets (19 points in 26 games). That output earned him a two-year, $8.7 million deal to stay with the Jets. Stafford should be good for 40-45 points again, but with Blake Wheeler and Nikolaj Ehlers also on the right side, he could end up with a third-line placement.

James Wisniewski, CAR, D - Other than a 51-point campaign in 2013-14 for Columbus, Wisniewski has been a disappointment. He heads to Carolina with the expectation that he will fill a point spot on the man-advantage next to Justin Faulk. Wisniewski should have a solid season but based on what we have seen from him in the past, relying on a repeat campaign to 2013-14 is not recommended.

Cam Talbot, EDM, G - I was going to pick on Cam Ward or Jimmy Howard, but what's the fun in that? Devan Dubnyk was already highlighted so this spot goes to Talbot. His mention is not solely due to how he will play but more so the team around him. Defense has been a dirty word in Edmonton, and while they added Andrej Sekera, the blue line is still a major work-in-progress. Talbot played well in NY even when the D struggled but to expect him to be out-of-this-world nightly may be unfair. Expect wins and a decent save percentage but a very mediocre goals-against average.