Frozen Fantasy: Goalies are Overrated

Are stud goalies overrated? Or, should I say, how overrated are they? Henrik Lundqvist? Carey Price?

Take a deep breath. It's just an opinion, not blasphemy.

It wasn't that long ago that turning to a backup goalie, either on the ice or in fantasy, spelled complete doom for a team. The Blackhawks prayed Ed Belfour would stay healthy lest they have to turn to Jimmy Waite.

But then again, that was 1991-92.

We still panic when our favorite team loses its top goalie. Like Habs fans just did. Or when our own squad is forced to resort to a so-called second-class man. But today's NHL means there's little difference between great goalies and good ones, and good ones and ones that are just OK.

Remember Cam Talbot (on Broadway, of course)? And Mike Condon?

Don't get me wrong -- I love Carey Price. But Condon has filled in admirably for the injured icon. And will for the foreseeable future, too. Talbot did the same last year and earned a nice, fat opportunity in the Oil Patch.

Not that it's working out right now.

A good system begets a good goalie, not the other way around. So, good -- even great -- goalies often can't turn around a suffering squad. But an OK to good one can happily fit into -- and produce -- in a strong system.

None of us thought James Reimer would deliver better results over the last four weeks than every other goalie except Braden Holtby, Ben Bishop and Sergei Bobrovsky. But he got hot and the Leafs are playing a great system.

I'm not sure what that means for Jonathan Bernier. But I digress.

What does parity among goaltenders mean for fantasy owners today? As always, you should always try to stash good backups when they hit the wire or the market. But we really don't need to panic if one of our guys goes down with an injury, especially if we've already been solid/above-average in the twine tent.

Cumulative category success (GAA and save percentage) doesn't just disappear overnight. Or in a few weeks for that matter. So, don't overspend to replace a stud with a stud. Instead shoot lower and spend a lot less to maintain your success.

And maybe, just maybe, it's time to rethink our goalie strategies on draft day. Martin Jones and Cory Schneider were a whole lot cheaper on draft day than Jonathan Quick and Pekka Rinne, and have been far more valuable.

Just saying.

Now let's take a look at who caught my eye this week.

Sean Couturier, C, Philadelphia (3 percent Yahoo owned) - Couturier is Jordan Staal -- all the skill in the world, but so focused on the defensive side of the puck that he'll never become an elite, top-line center. Coots can skate, score and suffocate, but we usually see the skate and suffocate part, not the score. But on Tuesday night, he and Wayne Simmonds had their way with the Senators and Couturier finished with a three-point game. Martin Hanzal's game has taken on an upward offensive turn with the right situation and linemates, so maybe Coots can do the same. It bears watching -- his talent is elite.

John Gibson, G, Anaheim (32 percent) - Two shutouts in his last three games? Fredrik Andersen may not get the net back when his boo-boo is all healed up. Gibson has been teasing us for a few years now and could be ready to finally make the leap. It's a nice problem for the Quacks to have. He may be gone in your league -- his ownership is growing 19-plus percent daily. But someone might be sleeping on him. Go check.

Leo Komarov, LW/C, Toronto (21 percent) - Uncle Leo has been loving life on the Leafs' top line and there have been moments this season when he's been their top forward. No $@#&, Sherlock. He has already scored a career-high 10 goals, which projects to a 30-goal campaign. Combine that with a projected -- and whopping -- 388 hits and you have a winger whose skills put him in elite (and rare) company. Komarov can smoke a guy, take the puck and then put it in the net. That's fun to watch and damn valuable in specialty formats.

Jamie McGinn, RW/LW, Buffalo (1 percent) - Need a short hit of scoring for your squad? McGinn has caught fire with a four-game, five-point streak (two goals, three assists) heading into the weekend. Of course, he's not going to maintain this. He plays for Buffalo, after all. But I can't help be think he's a two-week wonder, especially in those formats that count hit metrics.

John Moore, D, New Jersey (0 percent) - I once had high hopes for Mr. Moore, but those finally passed with the help of little Ducolax. But now the smooth-skating puck mover has put up five points in his last five games heading into the weekend. He's probably more a Matthew Carle than even a Jay Bouwmeester, but that's fine, at least short term. Five points in five games is a decent little streak and the Devils are actually playing well enough to be in the playoff hunt. Maybe this is the season he makes a run at 25 points.

Anders Nilsson, G, Edmonton (14 percent) - Nilsson spent last season in the KHL in a last-ditch attempt to get to the NHL. Say what? Yep -- it's an unorthodox route, but otherwise, he'd be another year older and probably still toiling on the Isles' AHL team. He went 20-9 with a 1.71 goals-against average for Ak Bars Kazan (KHL) and has now started 12 of the Oil's last 15 games. He was especially sharp Friday against the offensive juggernaut that is the Dallas Stars -- 42 saves sharp. He's actually 4-3 in his last seven games and has only allowed more than two goals once in that span. He's being snapped up fast, so check your wire.

Matt Read, LW/RW, Philadelphia (2 percent) - Read burst on the scene with a 47-point rookie season in 2011-12, but his game has eroded since then. And last season's drop to just eight goals (after sniping 22 the season before) was a sobering reminder that the NHL can be a harsh, harsh place. Read gots off to a slow start again this season, but I've seen signs of life in the last few games, especially Tuesday's game against the Sens. He fired six shots - none of them resulted in a goal. But it's a good sign he's finally getting to the right places and seizing his chances. Read does have two points and a plus-5 rating in his last three games heading into weekend play and his shooting percentage is starting to climb. He could be worth a sniff.

Sam Reinhart, C, Buffalo (3 percent) - Reinhart is the Sabres' most improved player over the last few weeks. It's not that he was bad; it's more that it's taken a bit of time to acclimate to the NHL and show the elite talent that made him the second-overall pick in 2014. He's been tapped to skate on the wing on the team's top line the last four games and has three goals to show for it. Friday night, the trio of Reinhart, Ryan O'Reilly and Evander Kane dominated the 'Yotes and delivered three goals and one assist. In their last three games? Try eight goals and 13 points. Reinhart is the thinker on the line. Kane is the speed and O'Reilly the possession. But Reinhart is the one you can actually get your hands on. I recommend you do just that.

Carl Soderberg, LW/C, Colorado (14 percent) - This big Swede is finally hitting on all cylinders in his new home in Mile High. And he's producing offense while shutting down the opponent's top line. Win-win. Soderberg has 16 points in 26 games heading into the weekend, but seven of those points have come in his last seven. He's even managed to keep his plus-minus at even through those seven games. Soderberg is producing on the team's third line with Blake Comeau and John Mitchell, and the team looks like it's finally starting to snap it's early-season funk. They won't make the postseason in that tough Central division, but they are rolling a tough top nine, including Soderberg. I like him in this situation.

Back to the goalies.

So, why do we place such an emphasis on fantasy goalies when there's so much parity among the NHL's twine-tending brethren? Heading into play Saturday, there were 18 goalies with 10 wins or more. Seventeen of those had 10 to 13 wins; only Braden Holtby was head and shoulders above (16). Fifteen guys had goals-against averages below 2.25. Twenty-three had save percentages of .915 or better. And there are plenty of surprises in that list.

Two of last season's Vezina nominees really are just OK this year. Pekka Rinne might have more than 10 wins, but he's not in the GAA and save percentage list I mentioned above. Devan Dubnyk's GAA isn't close, either, and his save percentage is just a hair over (.916) the standard listed above.

Corey Crawford has 11 wins, but like Rinne, his GAA (2.59) and save percentage (.911) aren't thrilling. And Marc-Andre Fleury's individual stats are through the roof (2.16, .929) just when we though Pittsburgh's pride was only good for wins.

Goalies really are a fickle lot. I wonder if we'll ever be able to get off this rollercoaster. LOL.

Until next week.