DraftKings MMA: UFC 191 Preview

DraftKings MMA: UFC 191 Preview

This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.

The flyweight championship of the world is on the line Saturday in the UFC's first pay-per-view in nearly a month. "Mighty Mouse" and "The Magician" hope to steal the show in Vegas.

If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests. Players get a $50,000 budget to select five fighters, and the scoring is distributed as follows:

Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.5 PTS
Advance (ADVC): +1 PT
Takedown (TD): +2 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +2 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +3 PTS

Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +100 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +50 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +25 PTS

Scoring Notes
Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.

Advances include: To Half Guard, To Side Control, To Mount, To Back Control

Now, on to the fights.

Main Event – Flyweight Championship

(C) Demetrious Johnson (21-2-1) v. John Dodson (18-6-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Johnson ($11,400), Dodson ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Johnson (-500), Dodson (+400)

Johnson simply doesn't get the credit he deserves because he is quiet and refuses to run his mouth. I think he is the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world. He does everything well and his game has absolutely no weaknesses. Two things are required if you are to beat Mighty Mouse – you have to be as quick as lightning, and you have to have massive power. Dodson has both. These two fought for the UFC flyweight title in January 2013. Johnson won that fight via unanimous decision, but Dodson picked up a huge knockdown in the fight and I thought he clearly won a couple of rounds. It's awfully hard to win a decision from Johnson. He is just so technical that scoring more points than him over a 25-minute fight is highly unlikely. Dodson, however, has more power than any fighter in the flyweight division. He can knockout Johnson – or any other man. Dodson was out from June 2014 to May 2015 with a knee injury, but he is a terrific athlete and I expect his best performance here. Johnson is a massive favorite and deservedly so, but there is something about Dodson at those Vegas odds and that DraftKings salary. I'm picking Johnson, but the value play here is Dodson. He's a real threat and worth consideration.
THE PICK: Johnson

Co-Main Event – Heavyweight

Andrei Arlovski (24-10-0, 1NC) v. Frank Mir (18-9-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Arlovski ($10,300), Mir ($9,100)
Vegas Odds: Arlovski (-165), Mir (+145)

It is amazing that we have even gotten to this point. This is a fight between two guys (Mir especially) who, a short time ago, appeared to be closer to hanging up their gloves than making another run in the UFC's heavyweight division. Now it's entirely possible that the winner will earn a title shot. Arlovski returned to the UFC in June 2014 after six years away from the company, and has since run off victories over Brendan Schaub, Bigfoot Silva and Travis Browne. Mir had been on a four-fight losing streak, but he took a year off, returned in February and has since scored back-to-back first-round KO wins over Silva and Todd Duffee in a combined 2:53. Both men are 36 years old, so it's not like either guy is going to trot out something that the other one hasn't seen before. Arlovski's problem is going to be if this fight gets to the ground. Mir is the greatest submission specialist in heavyweight MMA history, although Arlovski has never been submitted in his career. Mir's issue is that he has shown a questionable chin in the past and that could be a problem against a guy that throws as many strikes as Arlovski does. The other thing to keep in mind here is that Mir is good friends with trainer Greg Jackson (whom he has worked with in the past), but Jackson is training Arlovski for this fight. There are many reasons this fight could go both ways, but when I'm on the fence, I almost always take the underdog. It is a bigger payoff at the end of the day.
THE PICK: Mir

Light Heavyweight

Anthony Johnson (19-4-0) v. Jimi Manuwa (15-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Johnson ($11,500), Manuwa ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Johnson (-500), Manuwa (+400)

UFC.com currently ranks Johnson as the #1 light heavyweight and he deserves a bigger fight than Manuwa, but the division is woefully thin and this is the best matchup that the UFC could come up. Rumble is coming off a submission loss to Daniel Cormier for the vacated light heavyweight title at UFC 187 back in May. Johnson appeared tired in the fight that was scheduled for five rounds, and the finish was more the result of him being gassed out than anything else. He has had conditioning issues in the past, so it is something to keep an eye on moving forward. Manuwa has a terrific record, but he hasn't faced terrific competition. The only top guy that he has faced during his five-fight UFC career is Alexander Gustafsson and he lost that one via second-round TKO. Manuwa's problem in this fight is that his biggest asset, his big-time KO power, doesn't come close to matching the power that Johnson features. Rumble is the better wrestler of the two, but given his conditioning issues in his last fight, I wouldn't be surprised to see this fight contested entirely on the feet. Considering the bombs that both of these guys throw, this fight doesn't strike me as one that is going to go the distance. Manuwa certainly has the potential to land that one big punch and get a quick finish, but it is a long shot.
THE PICK: Johnson

Light Heavyweight

Jan Blachowicz (18-4-0) v. Corey Anderson (6-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Blachowicz ($10,100), Anderson ($9,300)
Vegas Odds: Blachowicz (-150), Anderson (+130))

To be perfectly honest, this fight should not be on the main card of a pay-per-view. Blachowicz quickly knocked out Ilir Latifi in his UFC debut in October 2014, but he then went out and lost a unanimous decision to Jimi Manuwa in April. Anderson won The Ultimate Fighter season 19 in July 2014, but was brutally knocked out by Gian Villante in his last fight in April. Anderson's strength is his wrestling, which is the one thing that Blachowicz isn't particularly good at. The problem for Anderson is that Blachowicz is a skilled submission specialist. So even if Anderson gets the fight to the mat, he is putting himself at risk. In Anderson's last fight against Villante, he showed absolutely no ability to check a leg kick. Villante landed several huge ones and Anderson was limping by the time the first round was over. If he hasn't made an adjustment in that area, Blachowicz will pick him apart. Anderson is seven years younger, but Blachowicz has the better all-around game.
THE PICK: Blachowicz

Women's Strawweight

Paige VanZant (5-1-0) v. Alex Chambers (4-2-0)
DraftKings Salaries: VanZant ($12,300), Chambers ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: VanZant (-1600), Chambers (+1050)

In my humble opinion, this is the most ridiculous line I've seen since RotoWire started covering MMA. VanZant is 21 years old and has six professional fights under her belt. She trains with a top team (Team Alpha Male) and has a ton of potential, but I have absolutely no idea what she has done to be a bigger favorite in this fight than Ronda Rousey has been in some of hers. Don't get me wrong, Chambers isn't all that good and is 15 years VanZant's senior. When was the last time you saw one fighter 15 years older than his/her opponent? VanZant is tough, active and a good wrestler. She should win this fight easily. That being said, I just can't recommend using her. She doesn't have the track record of a fighter like Rousey and effectively, I think her salary is insanely high. Chambers is just roster depth. I'd be willing to wager a substantial amount of money that this is the only time we will ever see her on the main card of a pay-per-view. The UFC is taking it slow with VanZant and hopefully that continues. It's a real possibility that she will fight for a title one day, but she is nowhere close to a finished product. As a result, I can't justify paying the price, at least not yet.
THE PICK: VanZant

Other Bouts

Lightweight

Ross Pearson (19-9-0) v. Paul Felder (10-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Pearson ($8,200), Felder ($11,200)
Vegas Odds: Pearson (+300), Felder (-360)
THE PICK: Felder

Bantamweight

Francisco Rivera (11-4-0) v. John Lineker (25-7-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Rivera ($9,600), Lineker ($9,800)
Vegas Odds: Rivera (-105), Lineker (-115)
THE PICK: Rivera

Women's Bantamweight

Jessica Andrade (13-4-0) v. Raquel Pennington (5-6-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Andrade ($10,800), Pennington ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Andrade (-240), Pennington (+200)
THE PICK: Andrade

Featherweight

Clay Collard (14-6-0) v. Tiago Trator (19-5-2)
DraftKings Salaries: Collard ($10,000), Trator ($9,400)
Vegas Odds: Collard (-135), Trator (+115)
THE PICK: Collard

Middleweight

Joe Riggs (40-16-0) v. Ron Stallings (13-7-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Riggs ($9,500), Stallings ($9,900)
Vegas Odds: Riggs (+140), Stallings (-160)
THE PICK: Riggs

Lightweight

Joaquim Silva (7-1-0) v. Nazareno Malegarie (28-4-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Silva ($9,200), Malegarie ($10,200)
Vegas Odds: Silva (+110), Malegarie (-130)
THE PICK: Malegarie

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Jon Litterine plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: JLitterine.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jon Litterine
Jon Litterine is RotoWire's lead MMA Writer and MMA Editor. He has covered numerous MMA events live. He's also RW's NHL Prospect Analyst. Jon has been writing for RotoWire since 2005. He is a graduate of U Mass-Lowell.
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