DraftKings MMA: UFC Hamburg Preview

DraftKings MMA: UFC Hamburg Preview

This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.

Two veteran heavyweights get the headlining spot as the UFC heads to Hamburg on Saturday.

If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests. Players get a $50,000 budget to select five fighters, and the scoring is distributed as follows:

Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.5 PTS
Advance (ADVC): +1 PT
Takedown (TD): +2 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +2 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +3 PTS

Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +100 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +50 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +25 PTS

Scoring Notes
Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.

Advances include: To Half Guard, To Side Control, To Mount, To Back Control

Now, on to the fights...

Main Event – Heavyweight

Andrei Arlovski (25-12-0, 1NC) v. Josh Barnett (34-8-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Arlovski ($9,700), Barnett ($9,700)
Vegas Odds: Arlovski (+130), Barnett (-150)

A fight between two big-name, aging veterans is best served to headline an international card such as this one. Barnett returned last September after a sabbatical of nearly two years to take a unanimous decision from Roy Nelson. He fought again in January, and was submitted by Ben Rothwell late in Round 2. Barnett will turn 39 in November, and he hasn't fought much over the past several years, so any dip in his overall game wouldn't come as much of a surprise. What Barnett still has going for him is the fact his biggest strength is his submission game. Those skills are highly unlikely to deteriorate quickly. Barnett has countless interests outside of the sport, so it wouldn't be the least bit surprising to see him retire if he isn't happy with his performance here. He has openly talked about stepping aside in the past.

The 37-year-old Arlovski returned to the UFC in June 2014, and ran off an immediate four-fight winning streak that featured a pair of first-round KO wins (Travis Browne, Bigfoot Silva). That streak appeared to be a fluke from the very beginning, however, and not surprisingly, Arlovski was totally overwhelmed in his last two fights against current UFC Heavyweight Champion Stipe Miocic and upcoming title challenger Alistair Overeem. Arlovski had quite a bit of power in his heyday, but his movements have slowed considerably, and he is having trouble getting into position to throw multiple hard combinations. The Pit Bull is moderately competent on the ground, but he certainly doesn't want to get into grappling exchanges with Barnett.

In my opinion, there are four, perhaps five, heavyweights on the UFC roster who have the ability to be champion. Barnett and Arlovski aren't on that list at this point in their careers. I would imagine that Arlovski is done in terms of beating top fighters, but I can't say with confidence that Barnett is a top fighter at his advanced age. This is the rare main event where I don't have a clear feeling either way in regards to a winner. I'm going to pick Barnett simply because I've been terrified of what I've seen from Arlovski of late, but this is a difficult fight to try to break down.

THE PICK: Barnett

Co-Main Event – Light Heavyweight

Alexander Gustafsson (16-4-0) v. Jan Blachowicz (19-5-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Gustafsson ($12,500), Blachowicz ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Gustafsson (-750), Blachowicz (+525)

Somehow, Gustafsson has lost three of his last four fights dating back to September 2013, although the three defeats came at the hands of the three-best 205-pounders in the world (Daniel Cormier, Anthony Johnson, Jon Jones). The Mauler has had two shots at UFC gold, dropping a unanimous decision to Jones in a fight that I thought he won, and a split decision to Cormier in a fight that I thought he lost. Similarly to Jones, Gustafsson's length and reach give him a significant advantage over just about anyone he faces. He doesn't have the explosive, one-punch KO power of a guy like Rumble, but his striking is precise and he picks his spots well.

Blachowicz looked like a potential sleeper following his impressive first-round TKO win over Ilir Latifi in his UFC debut in October 2014, but he followed that up with two dreadful efforts in back-to-back losses against Jimi Manuwa and Corey Anderson. He rebounded to defeat Igor Pokrajac in his last fight in April, although that isn't saying a whole lot. Blachowicz has the more impressive mat resume of the two, but he's giving up two inches in height and miles of experience in terms of battles against top-level competition. If that isn't enough, Blachowicz has a history of gassing out quickly. That's not something that will serve you well against an opponent such as Gustafsson, who as proven on multiple occasions that he can fight 25 minutes and take a beating in the process.

These two have spent some time training together at Alliance MMA in San Diego. Perhaps Blachowicz picked up something during those sessions that will help him win this fight, but it seems unlikely. This entire thing seems very straightforward. There's a reason Gustafsson is such a massive favorite. He should be in for an easy night at the office.

THE PICK: Gustafsson

Light Heavyweight

Ryan Bader (21-5-0 v. Ilir Latifi (13-4-0, 1NC)
DraftKings Salaries: Bader ($10,300), Latifi ($9,100)
Vegas Odds: Bader (-220), Latifi (+180)

Bader parlayed a five-fight winning streak into a main event fight against Rumble Johnson in January, where he was promptly knocked out in 86 seconds. His wrestling game, at age 33, is as strong as ever. Everything Bader does on the feet is based upon the constant threat of him shooting for a takedown. He doesn't have a KO win in nearly five years, so the odds of him finishing any fight quickly with strikes is extremely slim at this point.

Latifi has made a methodical rise up the rankings since making his UFC debut in April 2013. He is 5-2 with the company and currently riding a three-fight winning streak. The Swede is built like a tank, and he might be the strongest fighter in the UFC's light heavyweight division. Like Bader, Latifi's strength is his wrestling game. I think he has more one-punch knockout power than his opponent, but I would be very surprised if this turns into a 15-minute kickboxing match.

Bader is taller and has a slight reach advantage, although I don't imagine either will make a huge difference in the type of grappling fight that this projects to be. Bader has little to gain in this fight from a rankings perspective, so he better win. On the other hand, Latifi has nothing to lose. These are two above-average, top-10 light heavyweights with little seemingly separating the two. When that's the case, I take the fighter who is the underdog, particularly one as big as Latifi is here.

THE PICK: Latifi

Lightweight

Rustam Khabilov (19-3-0) v. Leandro Silva (19-3-1, 1NC)
DraftKings Salaries: Khabilov ($10,200), Silva ($9,200)
Vegas Odds: Khabilov (-400), Silva (+325)

A winner in five of his first seven UFC bouts, Khabilov is one of the better lightweights that no one ever talks about. His game doesn't have any noticeable weaknesses, and he is constantly improving under the guidance of Greg Jackson. Three of Khabilov's five UFC wins have come against quality competition (Jorge Masvidal, Chris Wade, Norman Parke). Khabilov, who has competed at middleweight (185 pounds) in his career, is a very large lightweight.

A third-degree black belt in BJJ, Issa has the ground game to compete against any man in the division. The issue is his struggles in all other areas of the sport. His striking game in particular is painful to watch. Issa struggles to put together consistent combinations and he has virtually no power to speak of, as evidenced by the fact he has just one KO/TKO win in his entire career.

Although Issa is going to have an advantage on the mat, I don't see any other area in which he can compete with Khabilov. With an International Master of Sports in both Sambo and hand-to-hand combat under his belt, and under the guidance of Jackson, I have a difficult time believing that Khabilov is going to willingly allow Issa to turn this into a grappling match. An Issa win here, in any form, would have to be considered a massive upset.

THE PICK: Khabilov

Other Bouts


Lightweight

Nick Hein (13-2-0) v. Tae Hyun Bang (18-9-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Ayari ($10,100), Walhead ($9,300)
Vegas Odds: Ayari (+100), Walhead (-120)
THE PICK: Ayari

Welterweight

Jessin Ayari (15-3-0) v. Jim Walhead (29-9-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Barzola ($10,100), Bochniak ($9,300)
Vegas Odds: Barzola (+150), Bochniak (-170)
THE PICK: Bochniak

Welterweight

Peter Sobotta (15-5-1) v. Nicolas Dalby (14-1-1)
DraftKings Salaries: Sobotta ($8,400), Dalby ($11,000)
Vegas Odds: Sobotta (+100), Dalby (-120)
THE PICK: Dalby

Women's Bantamweight

Ashlee Evans-Smith (4-1-0) v. Veronica Macedo (5-0-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Evans-Smith ($9,900), Macedo ($9,500)
Vegas Odds: Evans-Smith (-250), Macedo (+210)
THE PICK: Macedo

Bantamweight

Taylor Lapilus (10-2-0) v. Leandro Issa (13-5-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Lapilus ($10,000), Issa ($9,400)
Vegas Odds: Lapilus (-150), Issa (+130)
THE PICK: Lapilus

Heavyweight

Jarjis Danho (6-1-0, 1NC) v. Christian Colombo (8-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Danho ($10,400), Colombo ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Danho (-110), Colombo (-110)
THE PICK: Colombo

Middleweight

Scott Askham (14-2-0) v. Jack Hermansson (13-2-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Askham ($9,600), Hermansson ($9,800)
Vegas Odds: Askham (-120), Hermansson (+100)
THE PICK: Askham

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Jon Litterine plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: JLitterine.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jon Litterine
Jon Litterine is RotoWire's lead MMA Writer and MMA Editor. He has covered numerous MMA events live. He's also RW's NHL Prospect Analyst. Jon has been writing for RotoWire since 2005. He is a graduate of U Mass-Lowell.
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