Fight Stat Wrap: UFC Atlantic City Recap

Fight Stat Wrap: UFC Atlantic City Recap

This article is part of our Fight Stat Wrap series.

UFC Fight Night 128 turned out to be quite a night. The highest possible DraftKings score ended up being 723.5 points based on some dominant performances and upset finishes. In the main event, former UFC lightweight title challenger Kevin Lee put up the highest DraftKings score of the year and got back on track against Edson Barboza. The following is a by-the-numbers recap that highlights the stats and milestones that stood out on the main card, with stats courtesy of FightMetric.com.

Kevin Lee brutalizes Edson Barboza on the ground

While Lee had some success striking on the feet, his ability to score takedowns and land significant strikes from the top was the story in this fight. He outlanded Barboza 96 to 2 on the ground. The Brazilian was able to keep the fight on the feet in the third round and outlanded Lee 19 to 16 at distance and nearly finished the fight with a head kick. However, the rest of the fight was spent with Lee doing damage from the top. Barboza fought admirably to retain guard, but Lee routinely sliced through into dominant positions and finished with 11 passes on the ground.

In DraftKings, the ability to finish fights quickly is usually prioritized since a first-round finish nets players a 90-point bonus. However, length beatings in five-round fights have resulted in the highest scores of the year. Lee had plenty of time to accrue points before finally finishing the fight in the fifth. He finished with 164 points, which eclipsed Jessica Andrade (155) and Khabib Nurmagomedov (148) for the highest score of 2018.

Frankie Edgar defeats Cub Swanson for a second time

Despite taking this fight on rather short notice, Edgar was able to take the decision. In some ways, it was an uncharacteristic performance for the former lightweight champion, but he still picked up the win. In their first fight four years ago, Edgar took Swanson down seven times on 13 attempts. In the rematch, Edgar attempted eight takedowns but never came close to finishing. The played out almost exclusively at distance, and Edgar was the more accurate fighter. He landed 58 of his 136 significant strike attempts, while Swanson only landed 48 of his 130 attempts.

The fact that this ended up being a standup fight, did not help Edgar's DraftKings score. He is normally able to put up multiple takedowns in his fights, but he could not drag Swanson to the floor here. Edgar finished with 59 points, which was the second lowest score among winners on the night.

Justin Willis rides early knockdown to decision victory over Chase Sherman

In the first round, it looked like Willis was going to have a short night of work. He landed a knockdown in the first frame and nearly finished the bout on the ground. However, the referee gave Sherman every chance, and he survived. In that round, Willis landed 38 significant strikes. However, his output fell in each of the next two rounds. His landed 21 in the second and 17 in the third. Clearly, Willis has fast hands for a heavyweight, but he will need to improve his wrestling and conditioning in order to best some of the higher ranked heavyweights.

Heavyweight fights at this level are basically a choose your own adventure novel. Either there is a first-round knockout, or the fight drones on to a decision. Willis nearly finished the fight in the first round, but the referee let it continue. He finished with 86 DraftKings points, but many players were hoping for that quick finish.

David Branch scores unlikely knockout over Thiago Santos

In perhaps the biggest upset of the night, Branch took out Santos in the first round. Branch needed to land only five significant strikes to finish his opponent. In his UFC career, the Renzo Gracie protege had never scored a finish let alone a knockout. As a professional, he has five knockout victories with his last one coming against Yushin Okami at World Series of Fighting 15. Branch winning by knockout was as high as +845 in the books.

Very few people expected Branch to win, let alone score a first-round knockout. He finished with 105.5 DraftKings points even though he came in at only $7300. At $69.19 per point, he has the third lowest ration on the card behind Lee ($51.22) and Anderson ($59.29).

Aljamain Sterling shows improved striking against Brett Johns

Early in his UFC career, Sterling has been able to dominate on the ground and in the clinch. For the most part, his struggles came when he was forced to strike at distance. In this fight, Sterling was able to outland Johns in that position. He ended landing 53 significant strikes at distance while absorbing only 17. Sterling also did a great job of varying his striking target. He landed 40 significant strikes to the head, 37 to the body and 12 the leg.

Sterling mixed in enough grappling to help push his DraftKings score over the top despite going to a decision. The extra 26 points helped him finished with 100.5 points, which was sixth highest on the night.

Dan Hooker picks up fourth UFC knockout over Jim Miller

At a glance, Hooker might not appear to be much of a knockout threat. However, in his UFC career, he has picked up four knockout wins in his nine UFC fights. At this point, Miller is mostly a known commodity, and Hooker was expected to win big. The New Zealander was able to get it done in the first round with a strong knee. This was Hooker's second knee knockout in the UFC. He previously finished Ross Pearson with a knee strike at UFC Fight Night 110.

Hooker finished with 112 DraftKings points, which was the third highest score of the night. In addition to the first-round finish bonus, he scored points with 24 significant strikes and a knockdown.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Richard Mann
Richard is a statistical MMA analyst who regularly appears on ESPN MMA and InterMatWrestle.
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