UFC Vegas 120 DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
Discover the top DraftKings MMA DFS picks and strategy for UFC Vegas 120 on Saturday. Build winning lineups with our predictions, analysis & fighter breakdowns.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $333k UFC Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Lightweight
Mateusz Gamrot (26-4-0, 1NC) v. Quillan Salkilld (12-1-0)
DK Salaries: Gamrot ($7,900), Salkilld ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Gamrot (+115), Salkilld (-135)
A former KSW Featherweight and Lightweight Champion, Gamrot has been quite good with the UFC, although he rarely gets talked about amongst the best lightweights on the roster. He's 5-2 in his past seven fights despite the fact he has alternated wins and losses in his last four appearances. His best win was a June 2022 unanimous decision victory over Arman Tsarukyan. The main thing working against Gamrot at this point is the fact he'll be 36 years old in December.
Salkilld's birthday is also in December, although he'll be turning just 27. The Aussie is a perfect 5-0 in the UFC, with four stoppage wins (three knockouts, one submission) on his ledger. The early returns have been exceedingly positive, and while the UFC rankings typically mean next to nothing, it's extremely encouraging that Salkilld already finds himself in the top-10 of a loaded division.
This is one fight in which the competition level each man has faced is certainly worth noting.
The best opponent Salkilld has seen to date was 37-year-old Beneil Dariush his last time out. Gamrot has been in there with the likes of Tsarukyan, Charles Oliveira, Dan Hooker, Rafael dos Anjos, Rafael Fiziev and others. You get the idea.
Gamrot is without a doubt one of the best wrestlers in the division. He's averaging 5.22 takedowns per 15 minutes while landing 38 percent of his attempts. The fact he has managed to maintain a number that high over the course of 13 UFC bouts is remarkable.
Salkilld is even better in that department, at 7.25 takedowns per 15 minutes, but the number is misleading. Each of his last three fights have all ended inside the first round. He also tallied eight takedowns over Yanal Ashmouz in his second fight with the company.
I still think a prolonged grappling battle favors Gamrot.
That said, Salkilld should have the edge on the feet. His power is entirely legitimate and Gamrot, although never knocked out in 31 professional fights, has been damaged in the stand-up in the past.
This has all the makings of a prolonged, back-and-forth bout in which both men generate a solid amount of offense.
I don't have a real strong lean here either way. I do think it's wise to get a piece of this fight in some form or fashion because the rest of the card is so thin.
Salkilld should probably win this fight if he's as good as some people seem to think, but victories over names like Jamie Mullarkey, Nasrat Haqparast and a 37-year-old Dariush doesn't do much for me.
I'll favor Gamrot's experience edge ever so slightly with the caveat it could all fall apart in an instant.
UFC VEGAS 120 PICK: Gamrot
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Lightweight
Carlos Diego Ferreira (19-7-0) v. Billy Quarantillo (18-7-0)
DK Salaries: Ferreira ($8,700), Quarantillo ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Ferreira (-165), Quarantillo (+140)
Ferreira, who turned 41 years old in January, has been with the UFC for more than a dozen years now. He's had some really nice moments with the company, highlighted by a six-fight winning streak from January 2016 to January 2020, but it has predictably been a struggle of late. Ferreira is 2-5 in his past seven fights, although the two wins were via knockout against decent opposition (Mateusz Rebecki, Michael Johnson) and the five setbacks were all against clearly above-average opponents (Alexander Hernandez, Grant Dawson, Gamrot, Dariush, Gregor Gillespie).
Quarantillo will be 38 years old in December, so he's really in no better shape. Billy has lost back-to-back fights via stoppage and is just 3-5 in his last eight appearances overall. Like Ferreira, he seems to be trending in the wrong direction, and it's entirely understandable why.
With this season's edition of Dana White's Contender Series set to get underway shortly, it's a pretty safe bet that the loser here -- especially if it's Quarantillo -- will be handed his walking papers. A fighter threatening, or north of 40 years of age on a three-fight losing streak simply has no value to the company, especially when they compete in arguably the deepest division in the sport.
Both these guys are big for the division, with Ferreira checking in at 5-foot-9 and Billy at 5-foot-10. It will be Diego with a four-inch edge in reach.
The reach edge is notable because of Quarantillo's lack of durability.
Two of his three career knockout defeats have come in his past four fights.
It's zero surprise Billy has struggled in the latter stages of his career because he pays zero attention to defending himself. He lands an insane 7.44 significant strikes per minute, but eats 5.83 in return. The latter number is far more important, especially at an advanced age. If you can't take a punch you simply cannot be getting involved in reckless brawls every single time you step into the octagon. Quarantillo has displayed zero desire to improve in that area and there's no reason to expect things to change moving forward.
I've had a soft spot for Ferreira for a while. I think he has one more strong performance left in the tank and I think this is a strong stylistic matchup for him given Billy's defensive issues.
UFC VEGAS 120 PICK: Ferreira
Featherweight
Darren Elkins (29-12-0) v. Yadier Del Valle (10-1-0)
DK Salaries: Elkins ($6,600), Del Valle ($9,600)
Vegas Odds: Elkins (+525), Del Valle (-750)
Elkins continues to receive consistent opportunities despite the fact he turned 42 years old this past May. To be fair, he's 3-2 in his past five fights, so it's not as if he's riding the type of prolonged losing streak that some other fighters in the promotion are dealing with. He's obviously impossible to trust moving forward, and it's also essentially impossible to find a matchup for Elkins at this point that would be considered "favorable."
Del Valle looked like a legitimate threat after picking up back-to-back first-round submission wins over Isaac Dulgarian and Connor Matthews to begin his UFC run. Of course, the Dulgarian fight was the one that was rumored to be fixed, and Matthews went 0-3 with the promotion before getting cut, so maybe we shouldn't have been too impressed after all. Del Valle dropped a unanimous decision to Jordan Leavitt his last time out in February as a -435 favorite.
Elkins is entirely reliant on his toughness and grit for success. He's one of the toughest guys in the history of the sport. He has a whopping five career defeats via knockout, and his durability, or lack thereof, is only going to get worse at his advanced age.
Del Valle hasn't shown much on the feet, which is the easiest and most obvious path to getting past Elkins. Yes, he's technically averaging 4.05 significant strikes landed per minute, but that number is massively swayed by the the 125 he landed in his appearance on Dana White's Contender Series.
In his three official fights with the company, his significant strike totals have been as follows: 9, 1, 13. Of course, the Dulgarian and Matthews fights ended in Round 1.
All that said, it's impossible to back Elkins against any opponent with even a bit of speed and athleticism.
Del Valle may not be the fighter we originally anticipated, but he doesn't have to be that, or anything near that, really, to get past Elkins.
This fight is a total pass for me, even on a card as thin as this one. Elkins isn't playable given his age and durability issues, and del Valle isn't playable as the highest-priced fighter on this slate or any other, even if I think he wins.
UFC VEGAS 120 PICK: del Valle
Women's Strawweight
Amanda Lemos (15-6-1) v. Alexia Thainara (14-1-0)
DK Salaries: Lemos ($7,400), Thainara ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Lemos (+195), Thainara (-240)
Lemos turned 39 this past May. She challenged for the UFC Women's Strawweight Championship back in August 2023, but it has all fallen apart since then. She's just 2-4 in her past six fights dating back to that evening. The lone positive is that the Brazilian has been fighting the best in the world throughout that run. Her last six opponents have been Gillian Robertson, Tatiana Suarez, Iasmin Lucindo, Virna Jandiroba, Mackenzie Dern and Zhang Weili. That's the best of the best. Lemos has a massive experience edge and will have to lean on it in this fight.
Thainara earned her UFC opportunity with a unanimous decision win on Dana White's Contender Series in September 2024. She defeated Molly McCann (submission) and Loma Lookboonmee back in 2025 before taking a unanimous decision from Bruna Brasil this past March. Brasil had submitted Thainara for her only career defeat in the first fight between the two back in November 2019, Alexia's third pro bout.
I've mentioned this in the past, but I really struggle to find anything Lemos does particularly well.
She's low-volume on the feet (2.75 significant strikes landed per minute) and doesn't grapple very often (1.02 takedowns per 15 minutes).
I suppose you could say her stand-up defense is decent (3.01 significant strikes absorbed per minute), but her takedown defense is lousy (63 percent), and she's slowed on the feet in recent years, which is to be expected.
Thainara's numbers are misleading because she hasn't been with the company very long, and the fights she has had have been against middling competition, but she's racked up a whopping 11 takedowns in her past two appearances.
She's active from top position and seemingly very difficult to dislodge once she gets you an advantageous position, despite only having middling size for the division at 5-foot-4.
In short, she has the both the activity and physicality we have seen Lemos struggle with in the past.
I have enough respect for Amanda's experience that I could see her keeping this somewhat close and perhaps dragging things to the final bell, but I think Thainara racks up enough control time to win a decision.
UFC VEGAS 120 PICK: Thainara
Other Bouts
Welterweight
Billy Goff (9-4-0) v. Ty Miller (7-0-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Goff ($7,000), Miller ($9,200)
Vegas Odds: Goff (+280), Miller (-355)
UFC VEGAS 120 PICK: Miller
Heavyweight
Steven Asplund (7-2-0) v. Guilherme Pat (6-1-0)
DK Salaries: Asplund ($9,000), Pat ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Asplund (-290), Pat (+235)
UFC VEGAS 120 PICK: Asplund
Light Heavyweight
Diyar Nurgozhay (11-2-0) v. Bruno Lopes (14-3-0)
DK Salaries: Nurgozhay ($8,400), Lopes ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Nurgozhay (-150), Lopes (+125)
UFC VEGAS 120 PICK: Lopes
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Heavyweight
Louie Sutherland (11-5-0) v. Jose Luiz "Montanha" (6-1-0)
DK Salaries: Sutherland ($8,500), Montanha ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Sutherland (-155), Montanha (+130)
UFC VEGAS 120 PICK: Montanha
Lightweight
Manoel Sousa (14-1-0) v. Richie Miranda (13-1-0)
DK Salaries: Sousa ($9,100), Miranda ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Sousa (-265), Miranda (+215)
UFC VEGAS 120 PICK: Sousa
Featherweight
Miles Johns (15-5-0, 1NC) v. Jessie Rosas (8-1-0)
DK Salaries: Johns ($8,600), Rosas ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Johns (-155), Rosas (+130)
UFC VEGAS 120 PICK: Rosas
Women's Flyweight
Juliana Miller (5-4-0) v. Ravena Oliveira (7-4-1)
DK Salaries: Miller ($8,900), Oliveira ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Miller (-280), Oliveira (+225)
UFC VEGAS 120 PICK: Miller
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available. Check out DraftKings to bet on MMA Odds and use the DraftKings promo code for a great welcome offer.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
