UFC Belgrade DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
Discover the top DraftKings MMA DFS picks and strategy for UFC Belgrade on Saturday. Build winning lineups with our predictions, analysis & fighter breakdowns.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $300k UFC Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Welterweight
Uros Medic (13-3-0) v. Daniel Rodriguez (20-5-0)
DK Salaries: Medic ($9,400), Rodriguez ($6,800)
Vegas Odds: Medic (-375), Rodriguez (+295)
Medic is a strange choice as a headliner, but he's a native Serbian -- despite living in North America and training in Alaska for more than a decade -- and this is the promotion's first visit to the country, so it does make some sense. Uros has done his job to earn the opportunity, winning three straight and four of his last five, all via knockout and all in Round 1.
Rodriguez has been on the sidelines for almost exactly a year, of which he spent eight months in a Mexican jail due to a minor drug offense. He was finally released after a prolonged, back-and-forth battle and is ready to resume his career. It's amongst the strangest situations I can remember in this sport, and I have zero idea how to factor any of it into the equation.
D-Rod has won three straight on the heels of three straight defeats. He's 7-3 in his past 10 fights dating back to April 2021.
Making things even more complicated is the fact I think there's an overwhelming likelihood we have already seen the best both of these guys have to offer inside the Octagon.
Rodriguez will be 40 years old on New Year's Eve. He's a one-dimensional boxer with fast hands and decent footwork, but he throws zero kicks, and any dip in his stand-up defense would be a potential death sentence. Same goes for his durability. D-Rod has been knocked out just once in 25 professional fights, and his ability to take a beating and keep on ticking is essential for him more so than most fighters.
The Alaska regional scene has not produced many strong fighters for the UFC, with Medic being an exception.
He's all-action, all the time. The power is clearly legitimate, although he can't come close to matching Rodriguez in terms of technical boxing, and he's facing an opponent without durability issues.
Medic could lose every fight with the UFC the rest of the way and he still would have exceeded even my most optimistic expectations for him prior to his company arrival.
Acknowledging the situation for Rodriguez is far from ideal, I would have pegged Medic as maybe a -175 favorite before I saw the odds.
Maybe he goes out there and obliterates D-Rod in an instant, but Rodriguez's durability history suggests that's unlikely. While I also think it's unlikely the fight goes the distance, Medic could very easily gas after Round 1.
The price on Medic is way too high, and I see no upside at $9,400. Even if he hits, you're torpedoing the rest of your lineup to make it work on a card in which I like very few underdogs.
This is a Rodriguez play by default.
UFC BELGRADE PICK: Rodriguez
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Co-Main Event - Light Heavyweight
Jan Blachowicz (29-11-2) v. Navajo Stirling (10-0-0)
DK Salaries: Blachowicz ($7,200), Stirling ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Blachowicz (+260), Stirling (-345)
Blachowicz was supposed to face Bogdan Guskov in a rematch here before Guskov was shifted to last week's main event against Magomed Ankalaev following the withdrawal of Khalil Rountree. Stirling will be fighting on about two weeks' notice. It's worth noting that Jan was originally offered the Ankalaev fight in Guskov's place, but said he couldn't make the weight in time.
Jan will be 44 years old next February. On the surface, the numbers are really ugly. He hasn't won a fight in more than four years. Blachowicz is 0-2-2 in his past four bouts, but the two draws were against Ankalaev and Guskov, and the two defeats were 1) a split decision against Alex Pereira and 2) a unanimous decision to Carlos Ulberg in which he won a round on all three scorecards in a three-round fight. In other words, Blachowicz still looks competitive against some of the best in the world at 185 pounds.
Stirling is a long, lanky kickboxing prospect. He's the exact type of fighter Eugene Bareman and the City Kickboxing crew have had a ton of success with over the years. Stirling is 5-0 with the UFC, with his first three wins coming via unanimous decision and the last two coming via knockout. He just fought at the Apex a little over a month ago, putting away Ion Cutelaba midway through Round 2.
This is one instance in which the gap in competition faced between the two is worth considering. Blachowicz has been in the Octagon with the likes of Ulberg, Pereira, Ankalaev, Guskov, Glover Teixeira, Israel Adesanya and others.
Stirling's best opponent to date was Cutelaba his last time out.
I'm not sure he could pull it off if he wanted to at his advanced age, but I'm interested in seeing if Jan attempts to wrestle here. We've seen him land some well-timed takedowns in fights against notorious strike-heavy opponents, mainly Pereira and Adesanya.
Stirling gave up five takedowns to Cutelaba on seven attempts in a shade over eight minutes.
The problem is that I don't think Blachowicz can wrestle for the vast majority of three rounds, and he's almost certainly going to get beaten up on the feet whenever the two are at striking range.
My view here is similar to the main event in that I see the underdog as the value play, but the difference in this matchup is that I think Stirling still wins far more often than not despite Jan's perceived grappling edge.
Stirling is a legitimate prospect, and the 13-plus year age gap between the two is too much for me to get past.
UFC BELGRADE PICK: Stirling
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Heavyweight
Aleksandar Rakic (14-6-0) v. Marcin Tybura (27-11-0)
DK Salaries: Rakic ($9,300), Tybura ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Rakic (-345), Tybura (+275)
This is a weird fight for a whole variety of reasons, almost all on the Rakic side.
Rakic enters having lost four fights in a row, including three via knockout. He hasn't won a fight since March 2021. He's also moving up to heavyweight for the first time in his career. I'm typically always against an aging fighter switching weight classes, but it may have been a requirement in this case in order for Rakic to remain employed with the company. I'm surprised the UFC is giving him another opportunity.
If you want to dig really deep, the lone bit of good news is that all four of the previously mentioned defeats came against quality competition (Ankalaev, Blachowicz, Azamat Murzakanov, Jiri Prochazka).
Tybura theoretically enters in better shape, although not by much. He'll be 41 years old in November, has lost back-to-back fights and is sporting a 5-5 mark dating back to October 2021. In Marcin's last fight against Tyrell Fortune in March, he couldn't defend a takedown.
It's important to note that while Rakic has gained a reputation as a knockout artist over the years, that's never really been the case during his UFC run. He has two KO wins with the company (Jimi Manuwa, Devin Clark), and they came in back-to-back fights in December 2018 and June 2019.
Rakic is aggressive and likes to mix things up, but he's not putting guys away, and his durability appears to be completely shot. It's a terrible combination and one that figures to be an even larger issue at heavyweight.
Tybura is very much a generalist from an offensive standpoint. He doesn't land much (3.56 significant strikes per minute), doesn't get hit much (3.26 significant strikes per minute) and can wrestle in a pinch (1.3 takedowns per 15 minutes).
He's basically a big, lumbering body with fair, but far-from-elite athleticism. Tybura also has massive durability issues, with six of his 11 career defeats coming via knockout.
I don't think this fight is going to go the distance. Heck, it may not last more than a few minutes. I do think that the longer it goes, the more it favors Tybura. He's the natural heavyweight.
Maybe Rakic looks and feels more comfortable with the added weight on his frame, and I'm not a Tybura backer by any means, but there's zero chance I'm paying well north of $9,000 worth of salary for a fighter whose last victory came on March 6, 2021.
This looks like a pass altogether.
UFC BELGRADE PICK: Tybura
Middleweight
Dusko Todorovic (13-6-0) v. Robert Valentin (12-6-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Todorovic ($7,700), Valentin ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Todorovic (+140), Valentin (-165)
This is a matchup of two fighters that each snapped a three-fight losing streak their last time out with a first-round submission of an inferior opponent. Now they're fighting each other, with the loser probably getting cut and the winner not being in a much better position despite the fact he will be on a two-fight winning streak.
Todorovic's UFC run has been... not great. He's 3-6 in his past nine fights. His submission win came over Jose Medina in September. It undoubtedly saved his job and earned him this opportunity. That said, it's important to keep in mind that Medina went 0-5 with the company before being mercifully cut. There's no reason to think anything regarding Todorovic has changed despite him being in this position.
The story on Valentin is nearly identical. The 31-year-old arrived in the UFC in August 2024 and ended up with two knockout defeats sandwiched between a split decision setback in his first three fights with the company. His submission win was over 34-year-old Canadian newcomer Julien Leblanc in April in Winnipeg.
Todorovic's durability is awful, but he can wrestle a bit. He's racked up two-plus takedowns in three of his past six fights.
Valentin's takedown defense number is terrible (55 percent), but the main reason for that is the eight he gave up to Torrez Finney.
So, where does that leave us?
You have a guy with major durability issues in Todorovic, who is fighting at home, going up against a guy in Valentin that has just three career wins via knockout. Valentine is landing 1.3 significant strikes per minute during his UFC run. That number is not a misprint.
The reason I'm going with Valentin, albeit without any confidence, is because he actually has some submission skills. Todorovic is impossible to trust in the stand-up, meaning if he attempts to wrestle, Rob should get a chance to implement his ground game.
The bottom line is that it's a volatile, low-level fight. Proceed with caution.
UFC BELGRADE PICK: Valentin
Other Bouts
Middleweight
Vlasto Cepo (14-3-0) v. Gilbert Urbina (7-5-0)
DK Salaries: Cepo ($9,100), Urbina ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Cepo (-355), Urbina (+280)
THE PICK: Cepo
Lightweight
Milos Janicic (19-3-0) v. Noah Gugnon (9-2-0)
DK Salaries: Janicic ($8,200), Gugnon ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Janicic (-120), Gugnon (+100)
THE PICK: Janicic
Lightweight
L'udovit Klein (24-5-1) v. Tofiq Musayev (23-6-0)
DK Salaries: Klein ($8,800), Musayev ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Klein (-240), Musayev (+195)
THE PICK: Klein
Welterweight
Oban Elliott (12-4-0) v. Michael Oliveira (9-0-0)
DK Salaries: Elliott ($7,00), Oliveira ($9,200)
Vegas Odds: Elliott (+280), Oliveira (-355)
THE PICK: Oliveira
Bantamweight
Borislav Nikolic (16-2-0) v. Mark Vologdin (12-4-2)
DK Salaries: Nikolic ($8,400), Vologdin ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Nikolic (-185), Vologdin (+140)
THE PICK: Vologdin
Featherweight
Dennis Buzukja (12-6-0) v. Bogdan Grad (15-4-0)
DK Salaries: Buzukja ($7,600), Grad ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Buzukja (+170), Grad (-205)
THE PICK: Grad
Lightweight
Mateusz Rebecki (20-5-0) v. Kyle Prepolec (18-10-0)
DK Salaries: Rebecki ($9,600), Prepolec ($6,600)
Vegas Odds: Rebecki (-535), Prepolec (+400)
THE PICK: Rebecki
Women's Bantamweight
Nina Milosevic (8-1-0) v. Hailey Cowan (7-5-0)
DK Salaries: Milosevic ($9,500), Cowan ($6,700)
Vegas Odds: Milosevic (-425), Cowan (+330)
THE PICK: Milosevic
Heavyweight
Jovan Leka (13-2-0) v. Alexander Poppeck (21-5-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Leka ($8,700), Poppeck ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Leka (-220), Poppeck (+180)
THE PICK: Poppeck
Women's Strawweight
Marina Spasic (7-1-0) v. Stephanie Luciano (7-2-1)
DK Salaries: Spasic ($7,300), Luciano ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Spasic (+230), Luciano (-285)
THE PICK: Luciano
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available. Check out DraftKings to bet on MMA Odds and use the DraftKings promo code for a great welcome offer.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
