Noche UFC DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
Find the top DraftKings MMA DFS picks & strategy for Noche UFC 4 on Saturday. Build winning lineups with our predictions, analysis & fighter breakdowns.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $300k UFC Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Featherweight
Jean Silva (17-3-0) v. Jose Delgado (12-2-0)
DK Salaries: Silva ($9,300), Delgado ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Silva (-440), Delgado (+340)
This was supposed to be Silva and Yair Rodriguez before the latter was forced to withdraw. Delgado is in on about three weeks' notice.
Silva has been brilliant since joining the UFC, going 6-1. Five of the wins have come via stoppage (four knockouts, one submission) and the lone defeat was against a former two-time title challenger in Diego Lopes. Even Silva's September 2023 win over Kevin Vallejos on the Contender Series has aged exceptionally well.
Delgado remains a relative unknown five fights into his UFC run. He's 4-1 with the company, with his first two victories coming via knockout and the two most recent being via decision. The setback was a unanimous decision to Nathaniel Wood in October 2025. Delgado has yet to be tested at a high level, as his two best opponents to date have likely been Wood and Austin Bashi.
On the flip side, Silva has been in there against the likes of Lopes, Arnold Allen and Bryce Mitchell.
Silva is ridiculously aggressive and has thunderous power. I'm not a huge fan of his decision-making inside the Octagon at times, but his durability has held up outside of the Lopes fight.
He can also wrestle in a pinch, although he's only going to go as far as his hands take him.
Delgado won't be 29 years old until next April, and he trains with an elite team at the MMA Lab, so it's reasonable to expect improvements.
My main worry about Delgado is that he's a brawler at heart.
He lands 6.07 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 4.18. Jose's cardio is strong, and his durability perfect to date, but I just don't think you want to get in a crazy slugfest with Silva.
I also don't trust Delgado's grappling defense. He's given up seven takedowns in his last two fights to Bashi and 36-year-old Andre Fili.
To summarize, this feels like a tall task for Delgado on short notice. He didn't have a fight scheduled prior to agreeing to step in here.
I have enough respect for the MMA Lab guys that I think they can put together a competent game plan that will make Delgado look somewhat effective, but I think he's ultimately outgunned everywhere.
It's Silva for me.
THE PICK: Silva
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Co-Main Event - Flyweight
Brandon Moreno (23-10-2) v. Joseph Morales (15-2-0)
DK Salaries: Moreno ($7,900), Morales ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Moreno (+100), Morales (-120)
Things have fallen apart on Moreno in the past three years-plus. He's 2-4 during that stretch and has gone from UFC Flyweight Champion to a fringe top-10 guy, at least according to the company's official rankings. His most recent fight, a unanimous decision defeat to a late-notice opponent in Lone'er Kavanagh in Mexico City in late-February, did nothing to to quell the concerns that Moreno is nearing the finish line.
Morales is in the midst of his second stint with the promotion. He went 1-2 from August 2017 to November 2018 and ended up getting released. Morales returned to the regional circuit and won three straight fights before winning Season 33 of The Ultimate Fighter in August 2025. He submitted Matt Schnell last November in his first official fight back with the company.
It's worth noting that Morales didn't fight at all from February 2023 to August 2025. While the two men were born within about eight months of each other (in late-1993 [Moreno] and midway through 1994 [Morales]), Moreno has far more tread on his tires considering all the wars he's been in over the years.
Perhaps it shouldn't come as a surprise that Moreno is fading in the latter stages of his career.
An overachiever from the start, a good portion of Brandon's success was the result of grit and will. He's about as tough as they come, and that allowed him to dig deep and emerge victorious in spots where he probably shouldn't have been able to.
Moreno has always absorbed a ton of damage on the feet. The significant strike totals in his most recent bout was 97-79 in Kavanagh's favor. Brandon also failed on all eight of his takedown attempts, although he did manage 7:20 worth of control time.
All that said, this a highly favorable matchup for him. No doubt about it.
The statistics regarding Morales have to be taken with a grain of salt, but the samples we do have suggest he does nothing particularly well.
Morales doesn't land much (2.00 significant strikes per minute), nor get hit much (2.05 significant strikes per minute).
In a division that's all action, I question his ability to fight with the pace required to truly threaten his competition.
Morales was also highly susceptible to the takedown in his first company stint.
There's a real chance Moreno is completely shot, and if that's the case it's not going to matter who the opponent is, but getting him at plus money and a salary under $8,000 seems like a value, at least on paper.
I'll roll the dice one final time.
THE PICK: Moreno
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Women's Flyweight
Manon Fiorot (13-2-0) v. Alexa Grasso (17-5-1)
DK Salaries: Fiorot ($8,900), Grasso ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Fiorot (-250), Grasso (+205)
I'm quite confident Fiorot is either the second-or-third-best 125-pound female fighter on the roster. She fought UFC Women's Flyweight Champion Valentina Shevchenko to a closely-contested unanimous decision defeat in May 2025, a bout that was scored 48-47 x3 in Valentina's favor. Fiorot rebounded from that setback to dominate Jasmine Jasudavicius -- a legitimate contender herself -- via knockout in 74 seconds last October. I'm a fan.
Grasso is in better shape that Moreno, if for no other reason than she's coming off a first-round knockout win over Maycee Barber in March, but I can't help but look at the big picture and think they're in a somewhat similar situation.
Roughly the same age, both are career overachievers that ultimately won UFC gold, although both are clearly on the back-nine of their respective careers.
Alexa has displayed the ability to pick up a well-timed takedown here and there, but her grappling game is lacking, and she's essentially a point kickboxer at this point.
Grasso is deceptively strong for her size, but she's giving up two inches in height to Fiorot, who is arguably the strongest fighter in the division.
I've always felt that despite all her success, Alexa struggles with physicality. If you close the distance on her and make things ugly, or, in other words, all the things Fiorot is good at, she tends to fold.
I'm not saying Grasso is done by any means, but this looks like a nightmare matchup for her on pretty much every possible front.
She'll get a slight bump with the crowd behind her, but I don't think it's enough. I think Fiorot is too big and too strong.
THE PICK: Fiorot
Heavyweight
Waldo Cortes-Acosta (17-3-0) v. Curtis Blaydes (19-6-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Cortes-Acosta ($8,700), Blaydes ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Cortes-Acosta (-205), Blaydes (+170)
I've never been a big Cortes-Acosta guy for a variety of reasons which I'll touch on below, but the UFC has done a nice job of matching him up against guys he should handle. He's done just that, as Waldo is 8-2 in his past 10 fights.
The record looks great on paper, but a deeper dive reveals cause for concern. For starters, the two setbacks were against his two best opponents, Sergei Pavlovich in August 2025 and Alexander Volkov his last time out in May. In between, he scored three straight knockout wins over Derrick Lewis, Shamil Gaziev and Ante Delija. Blaydes is theoretically closer to the former group than the latter, although he's quite untrustworthy these days.
Curtis has alternated losses and wins in his past six fights. He gets a pass on all the setbacks considering they came against Josh Hokit, Tom Aspinall (in an interim title fight) and Pavlovich. The Hokit bout was the most recent, having happened in April, and Blaydes was super competitive that evening. More competitive, quite frankly, than most everyone expected.
Cortes-Acosta will be 35 years old in October. A baseball player growing up, he didn't making his professional debut until May 2018.
He's an above-average athlete, especially by heavyweight division standards, but his offensive game is still one-dimensional. Waldo is a good point kickboxer. I don't trust the knockout power, even though he's shown it on multiple occasions.
Blaydes averages a ridiculous 5.12 takedowns per 15 minutes. That number is even more insane considering he has just four takedowns in his last seven fights.
He landed two on Hokit, instead preferring to engage in a back-and-forth slugfest. Of course, Hokit played in the NFL and has a high-level wrestling background, so that probably wasn't the fight to try to lean on your grappling.
If you told me Blaydes was going to come out in this fight and spam takedown attempts, he'd be the pick all day long.
Sadly, he doesn't really do that anymore. Curtis has essentially changed his style of fighting in recent years, preferring to stand and bang.
Give that Waldo is the far more technical and proven striker, he's the pick.
I'm looking for an excuse to fade Cortes-Acosta at every turn possible, but this doesn't seem like a wise spot to do so unless Blaydes flips the script completely.
THE PICK: Cortes-Acosta
Other Bouts
Featherweight
Tommy McMillen (11-0-0) v. Marwan Rahiki (9-0-0)
DK Salaries: McMillen ($8,600), Rahiki ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: McMillen (-165), Rahiki (+140)
THE PICK: Rahiki
Bantamweight
David Martinez (14-1-0) v. Dan Ige (19-11-0)
DK Salaries: Martinez ($9,200), Ige ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Martinez (-360), Ige (+285)
THE PICK: Martinez
Flyweight
Tim Elliott (22-14-1) v. Edgar Chairez (14-6-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Elliott ($7,400), Chairez ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Elliott (+180), Chairez (-220)
THE PICK: Chairez
Welterweight
Ignacio Bahamondes (17-7-0) v. Muslim Salikhov (22-6-0)
DK Salaries: Bahamondes ($9,500), Salikhov ($6,700)
Vegas Odds: Bahamondes (-600), Salikhov (+440)
THE PICK: Bahamondes
Middleweight
Yousri Belgaroui (10-3-0) v. Djorden Santos (11-3-0)
DK Salaries: Belgaroui ($9,700), Santos ($6,700)
Vegas Odds: Belgaroui (-800), Santos (+550)
THE PICK: Belgaroui
Lightweight
Drakkar Klose (16-3-1) v. Tommy Gantt (12-0-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Klose ($6,800), Gantt ($9,400)
Vegas Odds: Klose (+390), Gantt (-520)
THE PICK: Gantt
Lightweight
Rafa Garcia (19-4-0) v. Rong Zhu (28-6-0)
DK Salaries: Garcia ($7,700), Zhu ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Garcia (+160), Zhu (-190)
THE PICK: Garcia
Featherweight
Sean King (6-0-0) v. Jessie Rosas (8-1-0)
DK Salaries: King ($8,400), Rosas ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: King (-170), Rosas (+140)
THE PICK: King
Women's Flyweight
JJ Aldrich (15-7-0) v. Regina Tarin (8-0-0)
DK Salaries: Aldrich ($7,100), Tarin ($9,100)
Vegas Odds: Aldrich (+230), Tarin (-285)
THE PICK: Tarin
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available. Check out DraftKings to bet on MMA Odds and use the DraftKings promo code for a great welcome offer.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
