UFC 330 DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
Discover the top DraftKings MMA DFS picks and strategy for UFC 330 on Saturday. Build winning lineups with our predictions, analysis & fighter breakdowns.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $600k UFC 330 Special with $200k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Welterweight Championship
(C) Islam Makhachev (28-1-0) v. Ian Garry (17-1-0)
DK Salaries: Makhachev ($9,200), Garry ($7,000)
Vegas Odds; Makhachev (-340), Garry (+270)
Set to turn 35 years of age in late-October, Makhachev has shown zero signs of slowing down. He's won a remarkable 16 fights in a row since getting shockingly knocked out by Adriano Martins in his second UFC bout back in October 2015.
Islam, the former UFC Lightweight Champion, won the 170-pound title last November at Madison Square Garden, sweeping Jack Della Maddalena on the scorecards in what was a flawless performance. In terms of best pound-for-pound fighters in the world, this guy is at the very tippy top of the food chain.
Garry may not be the most popular fella around, but he's a heck of a fighter. Sporting a 10-1 record in 11 UFC fights, his lone setback was a tightly-contested decision to a legitimate top contender in Shavkat Rakhmonov back in December 2024. He followed up that setback with back-to-back unanimous decision wins over Carlos Prates and Belal Muhammad. The Muhammad win doesn't mean all that much given Belal looks toast, but the Prates victory has aged exceptionally well.
Like most Dagestani fighters and any protege of Abdulmanap Nurmagomedov, Khabib's father, Makhachev is entirely reliant on his wrestling game for success.
Not only is he technically sound, but he's so strong that he doesn't need a perfect entry to drag you to the mat. Once Islam gets on top of you, it's game over. The sheer physicality from top position is unmatched in the sport today.
By and large, Garry's takedown defense has held up well. He's at 80 percent over the course of his career, and the only two he's allowed in the last seven fights came against Rakhmonov. That said, defending shots from Islam is an entirely different beast.
On the feet, Garry should have the edge.
He's five inches taller and has a four-inch reach edge. He's better at distance and more creative in terms of generating combinations.
Islam can look uncomfortable on the feet at times, but that's fine because his time spent in the stand-up is simply a prelude to him somehow ending up in a dominant grappling position.
As I've maintained was the case with Khabib his entire career, the only way you're going to beat Makhachev is via a flash knockout. It's exactly what happened against Martins in his lone defeat. You simply aren't going to land enough damage on the feet and win enough positions to earn a decision.
That's bad news for Garry, who has gone to the final bell in each of his past five victories and his last six fights overall.
I expect a better effort from Ian than we got from Jack Della last November, but I don't think it will be anywhere near enough.
Give me the champ to retain via a relatively easy unanimous decision.
UFC 330 PICK: Makhachev
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Co-Main Event - Women's Strawweight Championship
(C) Mackenzie Dern (16-5-0) v. Gillian Robertson (17-8-0)
DK Salaries: Dern ($9,000), Robertson ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Dern (-230), Robertson (+190)
Dern's UFC run appeared to be on life support following a stretch from October 2021 to February 2024 in which she went 2-4. Two of the defeats were to Amanda Lemos and Marina Rodriguez, and one of the wins was over Tecia Torres via split decision, so it was a concerning run of multiple fronts. Dern has steadied the ship of late, picking up wins over Lupita Godinez, Amanda Ribas and Virna Jandiroba, the last of which came last October and was for the vacant 115-pound title. Dern will be 34 years old next March, so she doesn't have the feel of a long-term champion despite the division's lack of depth.
Also wildly inconsistent early in her UFC run, Robertson has won five straight dating back to January 2024. She's fought often and effectively, but the strength of schedule is lacking. The five wins have come against Lemos, Rodriguez, Luana Pinheiro, Michelle Waterson-Gomez and Polyana Viana. I don't have a problem with Robertson getting this opportunity given the state of the division, but expectations need to be kept in check, even if she wins.
Once her greatest weakness, Dern's striking has legitimately improved in recent years. I still wouldn't say she looks comfortable on the feet, but she's landing with more regularity and doing more damage when she does connect.
She needed all that and then some to win the title against Jandiroba given the fact she gave up nine takedowns for a whopping 9:07 worth of control time.
As great as Dern is on the mat, she's not an effective wrestler. She's typically good for one or two takedowns, but no more.
I would give the grappling edge to Robertson because I think she's stronger and more physical at the point of attack, but her takedown defense is a woeful 38 percent, so I wouldn't put it past Dern to shoot repeatedly.
Even if Gillian does get Mackenzie to the ground, it's not like you want to roll around on the mat with a third-degree black belt and former no-gi BJJ world champion.
I expect the striking exchanges between the two to be sloppy and for both women to have their moments on the feet, although I favor Dern there.
I'll take Dern to win in a competitive fight, but I don't have a super strong feeling about this bout and I don't think either woman is an attractive DraftKings play. I could see their strengths cancelling each other out and the end result being quite boring.
UFC 330 PICK: Dern
Flyweight
Charles Johnson (19-9-0) v. Jose Ochoa (9-2-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Johnson ($6,900), Ochoa ($9,300)
Vegas Odds: Johnson (+330), Ochoa (-425)
Johnson continues to spin his wheels at 125 pounds, alternating wins and losses in his past six fights. The inconsistency aside, he has a knockout win over UFC Flyweight Champion Joshua Van on his resume as recently as July 2024, so Johnson remains on the fringes of the division's top-10 despite the fact he hasn't been able to string together back-to-back victories of late. He will be 36 years old in January and last fought in late-June, so this is a very quick turnaround.
Ochoa is in a similar spot, having alternated wins and losses in his four UFC appearances. The one thing he has going for him is age. Ochoa won't turn 26 years old until New Year's Eve, making him nearly a full decade younger than Johnson. In a division typically run by younger talent, Ochoa has an edge here right off the hop.
Johnson's biggest issue for ever was his inability to defend a takedown. He cleaned that up a bit of late, only to allow six to Asu Almabayev in his most recent outing. The good news for Charles is that Ochoa doesn't wrestle at all. He's landed just one takedown in his four UFC fights.
I think this fight will be fairly close on the feet, at least closer than the DraftKings salaries and odds would lead you to believe.
Johnson is two inches taller and will have a three-inch reach edge.
He has just one career loss via knockout, but I'm willing to bet his durability is still trending in the wrong direction given his age.
Overall, I give the striking edge to Ochoa for a couple reasons. First, he's better defensively than Johnson. He absorbs just 2.99 significant strikes per minute, a very low number for a guy that never wrestles.
Second, he has the ability to rack up a ridiculous amount of volume in the right circumstance. Ochoa landed 153 significant strikes in his last fight against Clayton Carpenter in May. The last and only time Charles landed 100-plus was in his second fight with the company back in November 2022.
If these two stand in the center and throw down, I think Ochoa is getting the better of the action, although I don't have supreme confidence in that statement. Johnson can be tricky for a variety of reasons.
If I was lining this fight, I would have Ochoa as perhaps a -225. It's nearly double that at this point. The number is way too high.
Johnson is the much preferred fighter from a DFS standpoint because I don't see any world in which Ochoa is worth $2,400 more in salary, but it's not enough for me to pick Charles outright.
I do think Ochoa's volume will be the difference.
UFC 330 PICK: Ochoa
Middleweight
Mansur Abdul-Malik (9-1-1) v. Dustin Stoltzfus (16-8-0)
DK Salaries: Abdul-Malik ($9,500), Stoltzfus ($6,700)
Vegas Odds: Abdul-Malik (-625), Stoltzfus (+455)
This is a strange fight to have on the main card of a numbered event, although it should be highly entertaining despite the volatility.
Abdul-Malik looked like a potential future star upon arriving in the UFC following his knockout win on Dana White's Contender Series back in August 2024, but his official time with the company has been inconsistent, to say the least. Abdul-Malik is 3-1-1, with all three wins coming via stoppage against the softest competition possible (Antonio Trocoli, Nick Klein, Dusko Todorovic). The draw was against Cody Brundage and his most recent appearance was a knockout loss to Yousri Belgaroui (who might actually be decent) in March.
Stoltzfus enters in unquestionably far worse shape. He's lost two straight, four of five, and is sporting a 3-7 mark in his past ten fights dating back to November 2020. He'll be 35 in November. This will almost certainly be the end of the road for Dustin if he comes up short, especially if it occurs in spectacular fashion.
Abdul-Malik has the ideal frame for the middleweight division. He's 6-foot-2 and will enter with a five-inch reach edge over Stoltzfus.
Mansur is athletic and smooth, but there's zero consistency here, even on a round-by-round basis.
He also has a tendency to get sucked into needless brawls, as evidenced by the fact he absorbs a whopping 4.49 significant strikes per minute while landing just 3.28.
Dustin has both limited power and durability issues, so any striking exchanges would seem to severely favor Abdul-Malik.
Stoltzfus is tricky on the mat with six career wins via submission, but Abdul-Malik is sporting an 83 percent takedown defense mark and is the much better athlete, so getting this fight to the ground is easier said than done.
The price you'd be paying on Mansur is essentially suggesting Dustin is totally shot.
That might indeed be the case, but in general, I'm not ponying up to find out. This is a pass for me, although I have zero interest in Stoltzfus as a money-saving option. You can find more attractive underdogs all over this card.
UFC 330 PICK: Abdul-Malik
Lightweight
Edson Barboza (24-14-0) v. Esteban Ribovics (15-3-0)
DK Salaries: Barboza ($6,800), Ribovics ($9,400)
Vegas Odds: Barboza (+400), Ribovics (-535)
Barboza has lost three straight and five of seven. He'll be 41 years old next January, and I'm a little bit surprised the UFC is running him back out there. Edson has been a top-tier fighter for a long time and with the company since November 2010, so if anyone deserves the benefit of the doubt, it's him. I just don't see things getting better unless he's matched up against an extremely low-level opponent, and this isn't that.
That said, Ribovics hasn't exactly been a picture of consistency throughout his UFC run. He's 4-3 in seven fights with the promotion, with a 1-2 mark in his last three appearances. Esteban's last time out was a second-round submission loss to Mateusz Gamrot in April. Ribovics gets a pass for that performance because Gamrot is a legitimate top-10 lightweight despite his no-show in last week's main event. He is being given a perfect rebound spot here against Barboza and needs to take full advantage.
At his best, Edson was one of the most devastating kickers in the game. There are countless examples of him destroying the lead leg of his opposition, which provided openings for him to attack with his hands.
Barboza hasn't changed much in terms of his offensive game plan in the latter stages of his career, but he's getting hit so much at this point that it doesn't really matter.
Ribovics is another guy that is willing to eat a strike in order to land two of his own. His averages a ridiculous 7.27 significant strikes landed per minute, while absorbing 5.83 per minute. The latter is a major issue and one of the reasons he's been inconsistent to date, but I actually think his uber-aggressive style is going to serve him well in this one.
You can break this one down any way you want stylistically, but the bottom line is that Ribovics is going to apply pressure the second the opening bell rings, and I see zero reason to believe Barboza will be able to survive the onslaught at this stage of his career.
Edson would have been better off going up against a point kickboxer that stands at range. That is not Esteban.
The price tag doesn't feel great since I'm lukewarm on Ribovics, but I'm totally out on Barboza at this point. I think the former wins via stoppage.
UFC 330 PICK: Ribovics
OTHER BOUTS
Welterweight
Chidi Njokuani (25-12-0, 1NC) v. Joel Alvarez (23-4-0)
DK Salaries: Njokuani ($7,300), Alvarez ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Njokuani (+215), Alvarez (-265)
UFC 330 PICK: Alvarez
Lightweight
Jalin Turner (15-9-0) v. Kaue Fernandes (11-2-0)
DK Salaries: Turner ($8,600), Fernandes ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Turner (-160), Fernandes (+135)
UFC 330 PICK: Turner
Middleweight
Donte Johnson (8-0-0) v. Eric McConico (11-4-1)
DK Salaries: Johnson ($8,800), McConico ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Johnson (-230), McConico (+190)
UFC 330 PICK: McConico
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Middleweight
Vicente Luque (24-12-1) v. Tresean Gore (7-4-0)
DK Salaries: Luque ($7,800), Gore ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Luque (+110), Gore (-130)
UFC 330 PICK: Luque
Light Heavyweight
Rafael Tobias (14-2-0) v. Lucas Fernando (13-3-0)
DK Salaries: Tobias ($7,100), Fernando ($9,100)
Vegas Odds: Tobias (+235), Fernando (-290)
UFC 330 PICK: Fernando
Welterweight
Neil Magny (31-15-0) v. Ramiz Brahimaj (13-6-0)
DK Salaries: Magny ($8,000), Brahimaj ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Magny (-105), Brahimaj (-125)
UFC 330 PICK: Magny
Welterweight
Jeremiah Wells (13-4-1) v. Myktybek Orolbai (16-2-1)
DK Salaries: Wells ($6,600), Orolbai ($9,600)
Vegas Odds: Wells (+650), Orolbai (-1000)
UFC 330 PICK: Orolbai
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available. Check out DraftKings to bet on MMA Odds and use the DraftKings promo code for a great welcome offer.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
