UFC Paris DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
Uncover the top DraftKings MMA DFS picks & strategy for UFC Paris on Saturday. Build winning lineups with our predictions, analysis & fighter breakdowns.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $250k UFC Throwdown with $50k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Lightweight
Dan Hooker (24-14-0) v. Salahdine Parnasse (23-2-0)
DK Salaries: Hooker ($6,700), Parnasse ($9,500)
Vegas Odds: Hooker (+455), Parnasse (-625)
Hooker has been trending in the wrong direction for the better part of the past half-decade. He's lost two straight and six of his last ten. He doesn't have a victory via any method other than split decision dating back to November 2022. The only thing truly saving him at this point is the fact he's been facing high-end competition the entire time. At age 36, I'm not expecting any sort of significant turnaround to be forthcoming.
Parnassee, who will be making his UFC debut, is one of the most decorated free agent signings for the company in recent memory. A former KSW Lightweight Champion and two-time KSW Featherweight Champion, Parnassee's last fight came in May -- a first-round knockout victory on the MVP card headlined by Ronda Rousey and Gina Carano.
Parnassee is a legitimate all-around mixed martial artist.
He excels at pressuring his opposition and making them uncomfortable.
His jab is excellent and he's a terrific counter-striker.
Hooker is also at his best when he's pushing forward, but unlike Parnassee, he has issues with any sort of severe volume coming back his way.
Dan gets hit took much, and although he's tough as nails and it typically takes a ton to get him out of there, I don't want to be backing a 36-year-old that has been in countless wars over the years.
Parnassee has seven career wins via submission. I've always been impressed with the timing of his takedown attempts. I doubt it matters here, but in a close fight down the round, I could see him attempting to steal a tight round with a single, well-timed attempt.
If that's not enough, Parnassee will also firmly have the crowd behind him in his native France. His lone loss dating back to January 2021 came at welterweight.
The history of these thought-to-be-elite guys coming into the UFC from other organizations has been mixed in recent years. Reinier de Ridder, for example, has had a decent amount of success. On the flip side, a guy like Patchy Mix washed out immediately.
The price tag on Parnassee is way too high -- we haven't seen him at this level, plus Hooker is reckless and unpredictable -- but you know the UFC laid out a boatload of money to bring him in, and I'm certain the company booked this fight with the intention of him looking like a future star.
Maybe things will work out for Parnassee over the long run, maybe they won't, but I don't think Hooker has the depth to his game to give the newcomer any real problems on his maiden voyage.
This fight is a pass for me entirely from a DFS perspective. If forced to choose, I'd rather play Hooker and spread my money elsewhere. I still think Parnasse wins. Perhaps easily.
UFC PARIS PICK: Parnassee
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Co-Main Event - Lightweight
Fares Ziam (18-5-0) v. Axel Sola (12-1-1)
DK Salaries: Ziam ($8,600), Sola ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Ziam (-150), Sola (+125)
It's an all-French co-main event in what projects to be a highly competitive fight.
Ziam had a six-fight winning streak snapped his last time out in June in a truly awful performance against Tom Nolan. He was a decent sized favorite that evening but simply didn't show up. It doesn't help matters than Nolan is far better than he's been given credit for previously. This is a quick turnaround given his struggles that night, although I doubt he was in any position to turn down this type of opportunity.
Sola's turnaround will be even shorter than Ziam's, as he submitted Ismael Bonfim in late July. Axel has looked quite good through his three UFC fights, even though his record is only 2-1. He knocked out Rhys McKee in his company debut and put forth a highly competitive performance despite dropping a unanimous decision to Mason Jones in his lone setback. It's worth noting this is Sola's third fight since March 21.
Ziam has become increasingly reliant on his grappling of late. He's landed at least three takedowns in three of his past four fights. Sadly, his loss to Nolan was largely the result of his inability to defend a takedown. I've never been particularly impressed with Ziam's get-up game, although he can be effective at times from top position.
Sola's style of fighting actually reminds me a bit of Hooker's.
He's the type of guy that is willing to eat a strike in order to land two of his own.
Sola can wrestle a bit and is tough as nails, but at his core, he's a fighter that seeks to pressure his opposition in hopes of overwhelming them on the feet.
These two have a similar size, reach, and were born within six months of each other in 1997, so I'm not sensing a significant edge for either man from a physical standpoint.
I'm going with Ziam because I'm worried about Sola's reckless style and how much he's competed in such a short amount of time, but I don't think there's a $1,000 salary gap between the two. Getting Sola for $7,600 when he's only +125 on the Vegas ML seems like a pretty fair deal if you need to save money.
UFC PARIS PICK: Ziam
Middleweight
Michael Page (25-3-0) v. Nursulton Ruziboev (37-9-2, 2NC)
DK Salaries: Page ($8,700), Ruziboev ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Page (-165), Ruziboev (+140)
Page doesn't quite fit into the same category as Parnasse because he was quite a bit older when he made his UFC debut back in March 2024, but his run with the company has still been quite strong. He's 4-1, with his lone setback being a competitive unanimous decision defeat against Ian Garry, who challenged for the UFC Middleweight Championship last month and put forth a strong showing despite losing to Islam Makhachev. MVP will be 40 years old in April, but he's really displayed no signs of slowing down, largely because the promotion has given him favorable matchups. This is another one.
The strength of schedule in this fight favors Page in a major way.
Ruziboev's 5-1 UFC mark looks great on paper, but those wins were against Andrey Pulayev, Dustin Stoltzfus, Eric McConico, Sedriques Dumas and Brunno Ferreira. The loss was a unanimous decision to Joaquin Buckley. I have a bit of time for Stoltzfus and Ferreira, but both those guys are several levels below anyone Page has fought in his five UFC bouts.
A large part of Page's success is because he's impossible to prepare for. There's no guy on the roster that fights like him and his style can't be mimiced in sparring. He's a high-level, highly creative kickboxer. Page is deadly at distance. The prettier this fight looks, the more it favors him.
Ruziboev has a hysterical 13 career wins via knockout and 21 via submission. That's what happens when you have 50 pro fights.
Four of his five UFC wins are via stoppage (three knockouts, one submission), including three in Round 1.
That said, I wouldn't call Ruziboev some murderous power puncher. He certainly has some thunder in his hands, but cornering and hitting Page is one of the most difficult things to do in the entire division.
This is a guy that absorbs 1.51 significant strikes per minute, a laughably low number for a kickboxer. Page has been knocked out once in 28 pro fights.
At 6-foot-5, Ruziboev is a huge middleweight. He can wrestle in a pinch but I don't think he'll be able to pin Page to the mat long enough to win a boring decision.
The most likeliest outcome is that Page does enough damage from the outside to win a boring decision. Any Ruziboev win probably comes via knockout, and I'm not going to project anyone to track down MVP and finish him in a three-round fight.
UFC PARIS PICK: Page
Welterweight
Daniil Donchenko (15-2-0) v. Punahele Soriano (13-4-0)
DK Salaries: Donchenko ($9,000), Soriano ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Donchenko (-250), Soriano (+205)
Donchenko has quietly done a nice job of raising his stock at 170 pounds over the course of his first three fights with the company. He's 3-0, with a pair of knockout wins on his ledger. Overall, Donchenko is riding a seven-fight winning streak and is without a setback dating back to October 2023.
The fact Soriano is still with the company is nothing short of a minor miracle. This is a guy that lost four of five from July 2021 to December 2023. Puna would have seemed like an obvious release candidate following that stretch, but the UFC stuck with him and the soon-to-be 34-year-old has rewarded them with four straight victories. Soriano's 31-second January 2025 knockout win over Uros Medic has aged exceptionally well.
Donchenko just turned 25 years of age in early August so there's a no-zero chance he could still show some improvements on a fight-by-fight basis.
That said, he's essentially just a knockout artist at this point.
There's very little depth to his game offensively, although to his credit, Donchenko has never been knocked out himself and his cardio is strong for a guy that likes to keep a super high pace on the feet.
I expect Soriano to wrestle here for a variety of reasons.
The most obvious is that you don't want to stand in front of Donchenko given his power.
Puna has landed at least three takedowns in three of his last four fights and the lone one he didn't was his 31-second victory over Medic.
It's a common theme on this card, but this is another fight where I like the favorite to win, but don't like the DK salary.
I also disagree with the Vegas line here. I'd have Donchenko lined at perhaps -160 or thereabouts.
I will say that if you're sorting through underdogs, I like Soriano more than say, Ruziboev.
I'm just not sure Puna will put forth a useable DFS performance even if he wins. I could see it being very boring. Lots of takedowns and control time.
If that doesn't happen, I think Donchenko wins via knockout.
UFC PARIS PICK: Donchenko
Other Bouts
Featherweight
Morgan Charriere (21-12-1) v. Felipe Lima (14-2-0)
DK Salaries: Charriere ($7,300), Lima ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Charriere (+155), Lima (-185)
UFC PARIS PICK: Charriere
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Featherweight
Losene Keita (16-2-0) v. Muhammadjon Naimov (13-4-0)
DK Salaries: Keita ($9,200), Naimov ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Keita (-360), Naimov (+285)
UFC PARIS PICK: Keita
Heavyweight
Mario Pinto (12-0-0) v. Ryan Spann (24-11-0)
DK Salaries: Pinto ($9,100), Spann ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Pinto (-280), Spann (+225)
UFC PARIS PICK: Pinto
Featherweight
Kurtis Campbell (8-1-0) v. Trevor Peek (9-3-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Campbell ($9,300), Peak ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Campbell (-395), Peak (+310)
UFC PARIS PICK: Campbell
Light Heavyweight
Oumar Sy (12-2-0) v. Modestas Bukauskas (20-7-0)
DK Salaries: Sy ($8,800), Bukauskas ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Sy (-205), Bukauskas (+170)
UFC PARIS PICK: Bukauskas
Flyweight
Michael Aljarouj (13-3-0, 2NC) v. Fabia Sintes (11-3-0)
DK Salaries: Aljarouj ($8,400), Sintes ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Aljarouj (-135), Sintes (+115)
UFC PARIS PICK: Aljarouj
Women's Bantamweight
Nora Cornolle (9-4-0) v. Klaudia Sygula (8-2-0)
DK Salaries: Cornolle ($8,300), Sygula ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Cornolle (-130), Sygula (+110)
UFC PARIS PICK: Sygula
Middleweight
Matthieu Duclos (10-3-0) v. Luis Felipe Dias (18-5-0)
DK Salaries: Duclos ($8,200), Dias ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Duclos (-115), Dias (-105)
UFC PARIS PICK: Dias
Women's Strawweight
Delphine Benouaich (7-2-0) v. Sofia Montenegro (6-2-0)
DK Salaries: Benouaich ($8,500), Montenegro ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Benouaich (-150), Montenegro (+125)
UFC PARIS PICK: Benouaich
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available. Check out DraftKings to bet on MMA Odds and use the DraftKings promo code for a great welcome offer.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
