UFC Shanghai DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
Discover the top DraftKings MMA DFS picks and strategy for UFC Shanghai on Saturday. Build winning lineups with our predictions, analysis & fighter breakdowns.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $300k UFC Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Bantamweight
Umar Nurmagomedov (20-1-0) v. Yadong Song (23-9-1, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Nurmagomedov ($9,500), Song ($6,700)
Vegas Odds: Nurmagomedov (-500), Song (+380)
Nurmagomedov has been incredibly effective since joining the UFC in January 2021. He's 8-1 with the promotion, with the only defeat coming against Merab Dvalishvili in a January 2025 title fight. Umar has victories over top contenders like Mario Bautista and Cory Sandhagen, with none of his wins being even remotely close. If you want to make the argument he's the best bantamweight on the roster, I'm willing to listen.
Song is a fringe top-five guy in a deep division, but he's had difficulty winning the "big" fight over the course of his career. He's just 4-3 in his past seven fights, with the defeats coming against Sandhagen, former UFC Bantamweight Champion Sean O'Malley and current UFC Bantamweight Champion Petr Yan. I suppose it's a positive that Song is only losing to the best, but his last two wins were against a pair of aging veterans in Deiveson Figueiredo and Henry Cejudo.
If we're comparing strength of schedule, Umar wins hands down.
Like everyone involved with his team, Nurmagomedov is an elite, all-world grappler. He's averaging 4.03 takedowns per 15 minutes while landing a ridiculous 46 percent of his shots.
Because he spends so much time in top position, Cousin Umar absorbs just 1.86 significant strikes per minute.
Song's power is legitimate and he should have a slight edge on the feet, but Nurmagomedov's striking is underrated.
Song also has some offensive wrestling to his game, but he obviously isn't going to lean on that in this matchup.
It should come as no surprise that this result will be directly tied to how much time Song spends on his back.
Nurmagomedov doesn't need a perfect entry to drag his opposition to the mat. It's certainly more position-over-volume in those situations, but in a fight scheduled for five rounds, I'm not entirely convinced Song and his 73 percent career takedown defense will be able to hold up.
Song probably needs to find a knockout in order to win.
I don't think it happens, but Umar was knocked down by Bekzat Almakhan back in March 2024. Of course, he absorbed five total strikes in that fight, winning 30-25 and 30-26 x2.
The price is right if you want to take a flier on Song, but it's a long shot for a reason.
THE PICK: Nurmagomedov
Think Nurmagomedov dominates with control and want to play his takedown prop for this fight on pick'em sites? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing actual betting lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool.
Co-Main Event - Women's Strawweight
Yan Xiaonan (19-5-0, 1NC) v. Denise Gomes (12-3-0)
DK Salaries: Yan ($8,500), Gomes ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Yan (-150), Gomes (+125)
Yan is still ranked as a top-five strawweight, but on paper there are some major concerns. First, she turned 37 in June. She's 1-2 in her past three fights and 3-7 in her past seven. The best news of all is that she has a majority decision victory over current champion Mackenzie Dern on her resume, but that came in October 2022, and I'm quite confident the roles would be reversed if they met today. Still, Yan can hang her hat on that result if she somehow can string together enough good work to get into the title conversation while Dern remains champ.
Gomes won't turn 27 until the end of December, so she has an immediate edge right off the hop. The UFC has taken it easy with the Brazilian in terms of the competition level she has faced, but to her credit, she's handled those put in front of her, going 6-1 in her past seven fights. I don't see a particularly high ceiling here, but Gomes deserves a stiffer test, and Yan, regardless of what you think of her, is that.
Yan is very much a generalist from an offensive standpoint.
She has the ability to rack up a ton of volume on the feet in the right situation, and she can grappler a bit, but her athleticism is limited. That figures to only get worse in the latter stages of her career.
Gomes' calling card is her power. She has seven career wins via knockout and hits about as hard as any 115-pound female on the roster, although her three KO wins with the promotion have come against lower-level opposition (Elise Reed, Yazmin Jauregui, Bruna Brasil).
Because she has so much power, Gomes' physicality is underrated.
She is effective in tight and should have no issues getting there in this one despite the fact Yan is three inches taller.
This is a dog-or-pass spot for me.
Yan probably deserves to be favored given her past body of work and the fact she's fighting at home, but the Brazilian is entering on a hot streak and is nearly a full decade younger.
I'll take Gomes to land the bigger blows in a mild upset.
THE PICK: Gomes
Backing the underdog in the co-main event? See the salary relief it creates and generate up to 150 unique builds with our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
Bantamweight
Aori Qileng (26-13-0, 1NC) v. Kai Asakura (22-6-0)
DK Salaries: Qileng ($6,800), Asakura ($9,400)
Vegas Odds: Qileng (+350), Asakura (-455)
Aoriqileng has lost two of his last three and has just a single win (1-2, 1NC) dating back to October 2023, so at 33 years old, he's probably fighting for his job Saturday. He had a stretch earlier in his career in which he lost four of six on the Asian regional scene, so the fact he's been inconsistent at the highest level shouldn't be much of a surprise. This is not an easy matchup for him.
A former Rizin Bantamweight Champion, Asakura made his UFC debut in December 2024, fighting for the flyweight championship in his company debut. He no-showed that performance and was then submitted by Tim Elliott in his next bout. Asakura finally moved back up to 135 pounds for his last fight in May, knocking out Cameron Smotherman (who has since been released), in addition to losing his follow-up bout on the regional scene (in under two minutes).
Asakura was draining himself to make 125 pounds, and he's clearly best served to fight at bantamweight, although a stoppage victory over Smotherman doesn't tell us much.
Aoriqileng is nearly impossible to back against even halfway decent competition because he doesn't defend himself in the least. He somehow only has two knockout defeats in 40 professional fights, but he absorbs a whopping 5.66 significant strikes per minute, which more than negates the 4.4 he lands per 60 seconds.
Asakura lost to both Pantoja and Elliott because he couldn't defend the takedown. I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt in saying he will consistently look better in that area at 135 pounds.
Qileng rarely wrestles, so this fight figures to be contested almost entirely on the feet.
One guy is clearly trending in the wrong direction while the other is both more accomplished and now competing in what is clearly his most effective weight class.
There are countless other longshot underdogs I'd rather roll the dice on during this slate than Qileng.
I think Asakura rolls.
THE PICK: Asakura
Flyweight
Alex Perez (26-10-0, 1NC) v. Su Mudaerji (19-7-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Perez ($7,400), Mudaerji ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Perez (+190), Mudaerji (-230)
This is a rematch of a May fight which came to an end early in Round 2 when Perez was fallen by an accidental groin strike. The referee announced Mudaerji would be docked a point prior to Perez not being able to continue, meaning the former should have been disqualified instead of the fight being ruled a no-contest. Perez was a -140 favorite that evening.
For what it's worth, Su was getting the much better of the action prior to the stoppage, landing a knockdown, a takedown and sporting a 26-9 edge in significant strikes landed.
I actually have time for Perez despite the fact he'll be 35 years old next March. At his best, he looks like a fringe top-five flyweight. Unfortunately, he's dealt with injuries, inconsistency and weight-cutting issues. This is a guy that is probably lucky to still have a roster spot considering he went 1-5 during a six-fight stretch from November 2022 through November 2025. A streak like that is difficult to overcome, even in a division as thin as flyweight.
Mudaerji is both big for the division and physical. At 5-foot-8, he's two inches taller than Perez and will enter with a ridiculous seven-inch reach edge.
I don't want to put too much stock in the 7:45 worth of action in the first fight between the two, but Perez didn't appear to handle Su's physicality well that evening. Toss in the fact Alex is inconsistent to begin with, and I'm officially concerned.
Mudaerji appeared to have zero issues close the distance between the two. Perez is going to have to find a way to generate more offense this time around if he is to have any hope of winning. He's also going to have to find a way to effectively remain at distance or he's going to get picked apart by his longer opponent.
When push comes to shove, I don't see how less than eight minutes worth of action can move a line upwards of 250 points.
Sure, Mudaerji looked better that evening, and I have less confidence in Perez than I did the first time around, but I'd argue he's the value play this time around. Alex has always had the talent to succeed.
THE PICK: Perez
Other Bouts
Light Heavyweight
Liu Ce (3-1-0) v. Levi Rodrigues (5-1-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: N/A
Vegas Odds: Liu (-205), Rodrigues (+170)
THE PICK: Liu
Flyweight
Bilal Hasan (9-0-0, 1NC) v. Nilson Rojas (9-0-0)
DK Salaries: Hasan ($9,600), Rojas ($6,600)
Vegas Odds: Hasan (-675), Rojas (+490)
THE PICK: Hasan
Flyweight
Namsrai Batbayar (10-1-0) v. Andre Lima (11-1-0)
DK Salaries: Batbayar ($7,200), Lima ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Batbayar (+225), Lima (-280)
THE PICK: Lima
Flyweight
Rei Tsuruya (11-1-0) v. Kevin Borjas (11-5-0)
DK Salaries: Tsuruya ($9,700), Borjas ($6,500)
Vegas Odds: Tsuruya (-650), Borjas (+470)
THE PICK: Tsuruya
Featherweight
Jack Jenkins (14-4-0) v. Sean Woodson (13-2-1)
DK Salaries: Jenkins ($7,800), Woodson ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Jenkins (+125), Woodson (-150)
THE PICK: Woodson
Bantamweight
Long Xiao (27-11-0) v. Francesco Nuzzi (11-2-0, 2NC)
DK Salaries: Xiao ($8,600), Nuzzi ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Xiao (-175), Nuzzi (+145)
THE PICK: Xiao
Bantamweight
Lawrence Lui (8-1-0) v. Hector Santiago (6-1-0)
DK Salaries: Lui ($9,100), Santiago ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Lui (-285), Santiago (+230)
THE PICK: Santiago
Women's Strawweight
Jingnan Xiong (19-3-0) v. Julia Polastri (14-6-0)
DK Salaries: Xiong ($7,300), Polastri ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Xiong (+210), Polastri (-260)
THE PICK: Polastri
Welterweight
Ding Ming (35-10-0) v. Cam Nelson (7-1-0)
DK Salaries: Ming ($8,300), Nelson ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Ming (-155), Nelson (+130)
THE PICK: Nelson
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available. Check out DraftKings to bet on MMA Odds and use the DraftKings promo code for a great welcome offer.
In search of a new, legal sportsbook? Get in on the action with our best sportsbook promo codes, as well as these selections for the best sports betting sites and sports betting apps.
DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
