Top MMA DFS Picks and Strategies for UFC 330
UFC DFS expert picks for this Saturday's UFC 330 card are up, as well as fight-by-fight breakdowns, plus betting and lineup strategy for the entire event. Welcome to Drake's Takes.
UFC 330 Picks & Career Results:
2026 Overall Picks: 219-88-2
2025 Overall Picks: 345-152-2
DFS Lock of the Week: Orolbai
Fanduel Captain: Orolbai
Islam Makhachev (28-1-0) v. Ian Machado Garry (17-1-0)
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 28-1 (5 KO/TKO, 13 submissions)
- Elite grappler with suffocating control, relentless takedowns, and an increasingly dangerous striking game
- One of the most complete fighters in MMA and rarely gives opponents an opportunity to dictate where the fight takes place
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 17-1 (7 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Long, technical striker with excellent movement, distance management, and precision
- Uses his size extremely well and has continued to improve his defensive wrestling against elite competition
DFS Perspective:
Garry presents some interesting problems with his size, movement and striking, but it is extremely difficult for me to pick against Makhachev. Garry needs to keep this fight at range and make Islam work for every takedown, but eventually I expect Makhachev to get his hands on him and take control. Once this hits the mat, the difference in grappling should become clear. Makhachev is the preferred side, and his takedown and control upside make him an excellent DFS target.
UFC 330 Pick: Makhachev
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Mackenzie Dern (16-5-0) v. Gillian Robertson (17-8-0)
- Height: 5'4" – Reach: 63" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 16-5 (8 submissions)
- Elite submission grappler with world-class Brazilian jiu-jitsu and dangerous transitions on the mat
- Striking has continued to improve, giving her another path to win when opponents cannot exploit her on the ground
- Height: 5'5" – Reach: 63" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 17-8 (3 KO/TKO, 9 submissions)
- Relentless grappler who constantly hunts takedowns, dominant positions, and submission opportunities
- Does her best work from top position but loses much of her advantage against someone she cannot overwhelm on the ground
DFS Perspective:
This is a bad matchup for Robertson. Her biggest weapon is the grappling, but Dern has more than enough defensive grappling to avoid any real trouble there. That forces Robertson to spend more time striking, where I give Dern the clear advantage. Dern should control this fight wherever it goes and retain the belt
UFC 330 Pick: Dern
Mansur Abdul-Malik (9-1-1) v. Dustin Stoltzfus (16-8-0)
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 80" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 9-1-1 (7 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Explosive athlete with serious knockout power and an aggressive offensive style
- At his best when he can pressure forward and overwhelm opponents with physicality and power
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 16-8 (3 KO/TKO, 6 submissions)
- Experienced, well-rounded fighter with a solid grappling game and submission ability
- Tough enough to extend fights, but has struggled when opponents can consistently pressure him
DFS Perspective:
This looks like a strong bounce-back spot for Abdul-Malik. Stoltzfus has the experience and grappling to make things interesting, but Abdul-Malik's athleticism, physicality and power are a lot to deal with. I expect him to pressure Stoltzfus early and create plenty of opportunities for a finish. Abdul-Malik is one of the better GPP targets on the card.
UFC 330 Pick: Abdul-Malik
Edson Barboza (24-14-0) v. Esteban Ribovics (15-3-0)
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 24-14 (13 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Elite kickboxer with devastating kicks and decades of experience against high-level competition
- Still extremely dangerous at range, but pressure and durability have become bigger concerns late in his career
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 15-3 (7 KO/TKO, 5 submissions)
- High-volume pressure striker who is more than willing to turn fights into a firefight
- Relentless pace and combination striking make him increasingly dangerous as opponents begin to slow
DFS Perspective:
Barboza will always be dangerous because of his striking, but this feels like a brutal matchup for him at this stage of his career. Ribovics is going to pressure him, throw volume and refuse to give him the space he needs to operate. I expect Barboza to have some moments early, but Ribovics should eventually overwhelm him with pace. Ribovics is the preferred side with strong finishing upside.
UFC 330 Pick: Ribovics
Chidi Njokuani (25-12-0) v. Joel Alvarez (23-4-0)
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 80" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 25-12 (15 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Long, technical striker with dangerous knees, kicks, and legitimate knockout power
- Most dangerous when he can control distance and keep opponents from turning the fight into a grappling battle
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 77" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 23-4 (5 KO/TKO, 17 submissions)
- Extremely dangerous submission hunter with a massive finishing rate and slick transitions
- Uses his length well on the ground and needs very little opportunity to find a fight-ending submission
DFS Perspective:
Njokuani absolutely has the striking advantage here, but Alvarez only needs one opportunity to completely change the fight. I don't trust Njokuani to keep this standing for three rounds without eventually giving Alvarez an opening. Once Alvarez gets him into a grappling exchange, the submission threat becomes massive. I like Alvarez to find the finish, making him one of the stronger GPP targets on the card.
UFC 330 Pick: Alvarez
Jalin Turner (15-9-0) v. Kaue Fernandes (11-2-0)
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 77" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 15-9 (11 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)
- Massive lightweight with dangerous power, long-range striking, and legitimate submission ability
- Extremely dangerous early, but his durability and ability to handle sustained pressure remain concerns
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 11-2 (6 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Aggressive striker with sharp combinations, dangerous kicks, and plenty of finishing upside
- Pushes a strong pace and has the pressure to make opponents uncomfortable as fights progress
DFS Perspective:
I'm going to take a flier on Fernandes here. Turner is extremely dangerous early, so Fernandes will have to survive some scary moments. If he can weather that initial storm, however, I think the fight starts to swing his way. Fernandes has the pace and pressure to overwhelm Turner as the fight goes on, and I think he eventually finds a finish of his own. He's a risky play but one with plenty of upside.
UFC 330 Pick: Fernandes
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Donte Johnson (8-0-0) v. Eric McConico (11-4-1)
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 8-0 (6 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Undefeated prospect with excellent physical tools and legitimate finishing power
- Dangerous when he fights aggressively, but his most recent performance left plenty to be desired
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 77" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 11-4-1 (4 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Experienced finisher with solid power and a willingness to exchange
- Can be dangerous offensively, but has shown vulnerabilities when facing more athletic competition
DFS Perspective:
Johnson was pretty underwhelming in his most recent fight, but this is a very winnable matchup for him. McConico has enough power to make things interesting, but Johnson should have the athleticism and overall skill advantage. I expect a better performance from Johnson here and like him to get back to showing the upside that made him an intriguing prospect.
UFC 330 Pick: Johnson
Vicente Luque (24-12-1) v. Tresean Gore (6-4-0)
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 24-12-1 (11 KO/TKO, 10 submissions)
- Dangerous veteran with heavy hands, slick submissions, and finishing ability everywhere
- Has spent his UFC career facing high-level competition and remains dangerous in every phase
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 6-4 (1 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)
- Physical fighter with legitimate power and a dangerous submission game
- Has shown flashes of upside but has yet to consistently put everything together against UFC-level competition
DFS Perspective:
Luque being the dog here doesn't make much sense to me. Gore has never really impressed me, while Luque has spent years fighting some of the best competition the UFC has to offer. There are obviously durability concerns with Luque at this stage of his career, but he has the better striking and is dangerous enough on the ground to handle Gore there as well. I'll gladly take the value on Luque as the underdog.
UFC 330 Pick: Luque
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Rafael Tobias (14-2-0) v. Lucas Fernando (13-3-0)
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 14-2 (5 KO/TKO, 6 submissions)
- Powerful, well-rounded finisher with dangerous offense both standing and on the mat
- Pushes forward behind his power and is capable of ending the fight quickly if Fernando makes a mistake
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 80" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 13-3 (7 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Former LFA champion with a versatile skill set and plenty of experience in competitive fights
- Comfortable mixing his striking and grappling rather than relying on one clear path to victory
DFS Perspective:
This should be competitive, but I'm going to side with the former LFA champ Fernando. Tobias is dangerous and has plenty of finishing ability, but I like Fernando's ability to use all of the tools in his game and adjust to wherever this fight goes. I expect him to mix his striking and grappling effectively and do enough to get his hand raised.
UFC 330 Pick: Fernando
Neil Magny (31-14-0) v. Ramiz Brahimaj (13-6-0)
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 80" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 31-14 (9 KO/TKO, 5 submissions)
- Extremely experienced veteran who uses his length, clinch work, and cardio to grind opponents down
- Still capable of winning ugly fights, but his submission defense is a major concern in this matchup
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 13-6 (1 KO/TKO, 12 submissions)
- Phenomenal submission grappler who constantly looks to create opportunities on the mat
- Doesn't need much of an opening to attack the neck or back and has built nearly his entire career around submissions
DFS Perspective:
If Magny weren't so vulnerable to submissions, I would probably side with him here. He has the experience, size and ability to turn fights into ugly decisions, but this matchup plays directly into his biggest weakness. Brahimaj is a phenomenal submission grappler, and I expect him to eventually create the opening he needs. I'll take Brahimaj to find the submission.
UFC 330 Pick: Brahimaj
Jeremiah Wells (13-4-1) v. Myktybek Orolbai (16-2-1)
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 13-4-1 (5 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)
- Explosive veteran with serious power and a dangerous submission game
- Extremely physical early, but can struggle when opponents survive his initial aggression and force him to work
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 16-2-1 (7 KO/TKO, 6 submissions)
- Relentless wrestler with suffocating pressure, physical strength, and excellent top control
- Pushes an exhausting pace and constantly hunts takedowns, ground-and-pound, and submissions
DFS Perspective:
Orolbai SMASH. Wells is dangerous early, but this is a terrible matchup for him. Orolbai should be able to pressure, take him down and completely take over with his wrestling and physicality. The takedown and control upside gives Orolbai one of the best DFS ceilings on the entire card.
UFC 330 Pick: Orolbai
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available. Check out DraftKings to bet on MMA Odds and use the DraftKings promo code for a great welcome offer.
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING RULES
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING RULES
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
