Top MMA DFS Picks and Strategies for UFC Abu Dhabi
UFC DFS expert picks for this Saturday's UFC Abu Dhabi card are up, as well as fight-by-fight breakdowns, plus betting and lineup strategy for the entire event. Welcome to Drake's Takes.
UFC Abu Dhabi Picks & Career Results:
2026 Overall Picks: 205-80-2
2025 Overall Picks: 345-152-2
DFS Lock of the Week: Tuchalov
Fanduel Captain: Tuchalov
Magomed Ankalaev (21-2-1) v. Bogdan Guskov (18-3-1)
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 21-2-1 (11 KO/TKO)
- Elite, well-rounded contender with excellent counter striking and suffocating wrestling
- Patient fighter who rarely makes mistakes but is often content to fight at a measured pace
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 76" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 18-3 (15 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Heavy-handed finisher who looks to pressure opponents from the opening bell
- Aggressive style creates constant finishing opportunities but also leaves openings defensively
DFS Perspective:
Ankalaev is the clear favorite for a reason. He's fought the best the division has to offer and has proven he belongs at the top. The concern, though, is his pace. He has a habit of fighting methodically and letting opponents hang around longer than they should. Guskov isn't going to let him coast. He'll force exchanges and look to land something big every chance he gets. I'll take the shot on the upset here and side with Guskov to capitalize on Ankalaev's slower pace and shock the division.
UFC Abu Dhabi Pick: Guskov
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Steve Erceg (14-4-0) v. Ramazan Temirov (19-2-0)
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 14-4 (2 KO/TKO, 6 submissions)
- Technical, well-rounded fighter with sharp boxing and a dangerous submission game
- Excellent fight IQ who does a great job mixing his striking, wrestling, and grappling together
- Height: 5'4" – Reach: 63" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 19-2 (11 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Explosive power puncher who constantly pressures opponents, looking for a finish
- Carries legitimate one-shot knockout power from the opening bell until the final horn
DFS Perspective:
I expect Erceg to use every tool in his bag to get his hand raised. He's the more complete mixed martial artist and should be able to mix up his striking, wrestling and grappling enough to keep Temirov guessing. The biggest concern is surviving the power. Temirov only needs one clean shot to change the entire fight, making him a dangerous GPP option. I still lean Erceg, but this is far from a safe matchup.
UFC Abu Dhabi Pick: Erceg
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Islam Dulatov (12-1-0) v. Wellington Turman (18-8-0)
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12-1 (7 KO/TKO, 5 submissions)
- Explosive striker with elite athleticism and legitimate finishing power
- Aggressive offensive style that puts opponents under pressure from the opening bell
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 18-8 (4 KO/TKO, 8 submissions)
- Veteran grappler with a solid submission game and plenty of UFC experience
- Most dangerous when he can close the distance and turn fights into grappling exchanges
DFS Perspective:
This feels like Dulatov's fight to lose. Turman is experienced and has enough grappling to test him, but Dulatov has looked like a legitimate prospect with serious finishing upside. If he can keep the fight standing, I expect his speed and power to create problems all night. Dulatov profiles as one of the strongest plays on the card and has first-round knockout potential.
UFC Abu Dhabi Pick: Dulatov
Damian Rzepecki (10-0-0) v. Magomed Zaynukov (8-0-0)
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 10-0 (4 KO/TKO, 5 submissions)
- Undefeated, well-rounded prospect with a balanced offensive game
- Comfortable mixing striking and grappling while maintaining a high pace
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 8-0 (5 KO/TKO)
- Explosive wrestler with relentless pressure and strong top control
- Excellent at dictating where the fight takes place and wearing opponents down
DFS Perspective:
This is one of the better prospect fights on the card, with two undefeated fighters putting their records on the line. Rzepecki has looked impressive, but I think Zaynukov's wrestling and pressure will be the deciding factors. If he can consistently secure takedowns, he'll rack up control time and put himself in a great position to earn a decision or late finish. Slight lean Zaynukov in what should be a very competitive matchup.
UFC Abu Dhabi Pick: Zaynukov
Rizvan Kuniev (14-3-1) v. Tyrell Fortune (18-3-0)
- Height: 6'4" – Reach: 76" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 14-3-1 (6 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Powerful heavyweight with strong wrestling and heavy top pressure
- Likes to control opponents physically while looking for ground-and-pound opportunities
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 18-3 (11 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Athletic wrestler with solid control and the ability to mix his striking effectively
- Dangerous when he can dictate the pace and keep opponents on the defensive
DFS Perspective:
This has the makings of a grind-it-out heavyweight fight. Both guys are capable wrestlers, but I give Kuniev the edge because of his physicality and ability to control opponents in the clinch and on the mat. Fortune is live if he can win the wrestling exchanges, but I expect Kuniev to be the stronger fighter over three rounds. Slight lean Kuniev, though this isn't one I'm rushing to target in DFS.
UFC Abu Dhabi Pick: Kuniev
Abubakar Vagaev (24-4-0) v. Saygid Izagakhmaev (22-3-0)
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 24-4 (4 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Well-rounded veteran with strong wrestling and excellent positional control
- Patient fighter who excels at slowing the pace and wearing opponents down over time
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 22-3 (4 KO/TKO, 12 submissions)
- Aggressive grappler with relentless pressure and dangerous submission skills
- Constantly pushes the pace and forces opponents into uncomfortable positions
DFS Perspective:
This should be a very competitive fight between two experienced, well-rounded fighters. Both are strong grapplers, so a lot of this matchup could come down to who wins the positional battles and controls the pace. I give Izagakhmaev the slight edge because he's the more aggressive fighter and creates more offensive opportunities. It's a competitive matchup, but I lean Izagakhmaev to edge out a decision while putting together a solid DFS score through control time and takedowns.
UFC Abu Dhabi Pick: Izagakhmaev
Valter Walker (15-1-0) v. Thomas Petersen (11-4-0)
- Height: 6'6" – Reach: 78" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 15-1 (6 KO/TKO, 5 submissions)
- Heavyweight grappling specialist with elite submission skills and dominant top control
- Constantly hunts takedowns and looks to end fights once they hit the mat
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 11-4 (7 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Physical wrestler with solid boxing and good durability
- Most successful when he can dictate the pace and make fights ugly in the clinch
DFS Perspective:
Walker has looked like one of the more dangerous submission threats in the heavyweight division, and this matchup plays right into his strengths. Peterson is a tough wrestler, but I don't think he'll be able to match Walker's grappling once the fight hits the ground. If Walker gets on top, he'll immediately start hunting for the finish. Walker profiles as one of the safest plays on the card with excellent submission upside.
UFC Abu Dhabi Pick: Walker
Dustin Jacoby (22-9-1) v. Muhammad Said (9-0-0)
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 76" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 22-9-1 (15 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Veteran kickboxer with high-level striking, dangerous leg kicks, and excellent distance management
- Proven against elite competition and capable of making adjustments throughout a fight
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 9-0 (6 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Undefeated prospect with explosive power and an aggressive forward-moving style
- Dangerous finisher who thrives in chaotic exchanges and carries legitimate knockout power
DFS Perspective:
This is a big step up in competition for Said. While he's an exciting, undefeated prospect with plenty of power, Jacoby has seen just about every style imaginable and has consistently competed against much tougher opposition. I expect Jacoby to stay disciplined, use his range and pick Said apart over three rounds. Said always has the power to change the fight with one shot, but I like Jacoby to get his hand raised and remind everyone why experience still matters.
UFC Abu Dhabi Pick: Jacoby
Santiago Ponzinibbio (30-9-0) v. Sam Patterson (14-3-1)
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 30-9 (17 KO/TKO, 6 submissions)
- Veteran striker with heavy hands, excellent combinations, and plenty of UFC experience
- Dangerous when he can keep the fight standing and push a high pace
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 78" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 14-3-1 (6 KO/TKO, 7 submissions)
- Long, well-rounded finisher with an underrated submission game and improving striking
- Uses his length well and is most effective when mixing his offense together
DFS Perspective:
This is a fun clash between Ponzinibbio's experience and Patterson's size and versatility. Ponzinibbio still has the power to make anyone pay on the feet, but Patterson's five-inch reach advantage and more complete skill set give him multiple paths to victory. I expect Patterson to stay long, mix in his grappling when needed and eventually take over the fight. Patterson profiles as one of the better mid-range plays on the card with both finishing and decision upside.
UFC Abu Dhabi Pick: Peterson
Ismael Bonfim (20-6-0) v. Axel Sola (11-1-1)
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 20-6 (9 KO/TKO, 4 submission)
- Dynamic striker with fast hands, sharp combinations, and proven UFC experience
- Dangerous at range and carries the power to end fights at any moment
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 11-1-1 (6 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Well-rounded prospect with solid boxing and a willingness to push the pace
- Tough, durable fighter who continues to improve with every appearance
DFS Perspective:
This feels like a favorable matchup for Bonfim. Sola is a quality prospect and should have moments, but Bonfim has fought the tougher competition and is the cleaner striker. I expect Bonfim to control the range, land the more impactful shots, and gradually pull away as the fight goes on. Bonfim profiles as a solid DFS option with both knockout upside and a strong decision floor.
UFC Abu Dhabi Pick: Bonfim
Brendson Ribeiro (17-10-0) v. Magomed Tuchalov (6-0-0)
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 81" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 17-10 (9 KO/TKO, 7 submissions)
- Long, dangerous finisher with solid striking and an underrated submission game
- Can be difficult to deal with early, but has struggled with consistency against higher-level competition
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 78" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 6-0 (5 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Undefeated prospect with a well-rounded game built around strong wrestling and heavy pressure
- Physical fighter who likes to dictate where the fight takes place and wear opponents down
DFS Perspective:
This is a big opportunity for Tuchalov to make a statement. Ribeiro is dangerous because of his length and finishing ability, but he has shown vulnerabilities when opponents can consistently pressure him and mix in wrestling. I expect Tuchalov to close the distance, control the grappling exchanges and wear Ribeiro down over three rounds. Tuchalov profiles as one of the stronger value plays on the card with upside if he can find a late finish.
UFC Abu Dhabi Pick: Tuchalov
Nurullo Aliev (11-0-0) v. Mike Davis (12-3-0)
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 11-0 (2 KO/TKO)
- Undefeated wrestler with relentless pressure and excellent top control
- Excels at dictating where the fight takes place and wearing opponents down over three rounds
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12-3 (8 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Crisp, technical striker with underrated grappling and strong takedown defense
- Dangerous everywhere the fight goes and has the experience to capitalize on mistakes
DFS Perspective:
Aliev deserves to be favored, but I think Mike Davis is one of the better underdogs on the card. His striking is cleaner, he has enough takedown defense to make Aliev work, and his ground game is more than capable if the fight does hit the mat. If Davis can keep this standing for extended stretches, I think he'll land the more impactful shots and steal rounds. I'll take the dog here and side with Davis in one of my favorite upset picks of the card.
UFC Abu Dhabi Pick: Davis
Abdul Hussein (15-2-0) v. Cody Gibson (21-12-0)
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 67" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 15-2 (5 KO/TKO, 9 submissions)
- Well-rounded prospect with sharp striking and an aggressive offensive style
- Constantly pressures opponents while mixing in timely wrestling and strong finishing instincts
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 21-12 (7 KO/TKO, 5 submissions)
- Veteran with a balanced skill set and plenty of experience against quality competition
- Tough, durable fighter who is willing to grind through difficult matchups
DFS Perspective:
Hussein is the rightful favorite here. Gibson's experience and toughness make him a difficult out, but I think Hussein is simply the faster, more athletic fighter at this stage of their careers. I expect Hussein to dictate the pace, mix in his wrestling when needed and separate himself over three rounds. Hussein profiles as a solid DFS play with enough finishing upside to exceed value if Gibson starts to fade late.
UFC Abu Dhabi Pick: Hussein
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available. Check out DraftKings to bet on MMA Odds and use the DraftKings promo code for a great welcome offer.
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING RULES
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING RULES
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
