The UFC is in Glendale, Arizona, on Saturday, September 12, for the annual Noche UFC event for Mexican Independence Day. In the main event, featherweight contenders throw down, as Jean Silva takes on Jose Delgado in what should be a fan-friendly fight.
Below, I'll share my Noche UFC predictions, including my favorite pick, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All UFC odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Noche UFC Betting Favorite
Tommy McMillen (11-0) vs. Marwan Rahiki (9-0) - Featherweight
For my betting favorite at Noche UFC, I'm taking Tommy McMillen to defeat Marwan Rahiki and get his hand raised in what should be a fun fight.
The UFC is making this fight between undefeated fighters, McMillen and Rahiki, to see which one it will push up the rankings. McMillen is 2-0 in the UFC and has impressed me, while Rahiki also holds a spotless 2-0 record.
However, I think McMillen can take shots better than Rahiki, which should be the difference. McMillen has a good chin and is fine taking a big shot to give one. I think Rahiki will land some big shots, but I expect McMillen to take over in the second and third rounds to secure a late TKO win in a barn burner of a fight.
Noche UFC Bet: Tommy McMillen (-166)
Noche UFC Underdog Pick
Rafa Garcia (19-4) vs. Rong Zhu (28-6) - Lightweight
For my underdog pick at Noche UFC, I'm taking Rafa Garcia to pull off the upset over Rongzhu.
Garcia is 7-4 in the UFC and has impressed me of late, as he's on a three-fight winning streak, with notable victories over Alexander Hernandez and Jared Gordon. Rongzhu, meanwhile, is on a three-fight winning streak of his own, looking much better in his second UFC stint.
Rongzhu is there to be hit, as he absorbs 5.38 significant strikes, which is a concern. Garcia, meanwhile, is the better wrestler and should be able to take down Rongzhu and also clinch him up against the fence.
It should be a very close fight that goes the distance, as both are durable, but I think Garcia can fight smart and win minutes to edge out a decision as the underdog.
Noche UFC Bet: Rafa Garcia (+164)
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Noche UFC Prop Bet
Jean Silva (17-3) vs. Jose Delgado (12-2) - Featherweight
For my prop bet at Noche UFC, I'm taking Jean Silva in the main event to win by KO/TKO/DQ against Jose Delgado.
Silva is a massive -425 favorite, but taking him by KO/TKO/DQ gets him down to -165, which is a solid price.
Delgado took this fight on short notice, and it's a massive step up in competition. The last time we saw Delgado, he was dropped by Nathaniel Wood and lost that fight. Silva hits harder and is a much better all-around fighter.
Although Delgado has impressed in the UFC, this is too-much, too-soon. Silva should be able to pick his shots and hurt Delgado early and often en route to a knockout win. The Brazilian has won four of his six UFC wins by KO/TKO/DQ, and he should add to that here.
Noche UFC Bet: Jean Silva by KO/TKO/DQ (-165)
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Noche UFC Parlay
Edgar Chairez (14-6) vs. Tim Elliott (21-14-1) - Flyweight
Manon Fiorot (13-2) vs. Alexa Grasso (17-5-1) - Women's flyweight
For my parlay at Noche UFC, I'm taking Edgar Chairez and Manon Fiorot to get their hands raised.
Chairez takes on Tim Elliott in the final prelim fight, and this is a good spot for the Mexican to get the win. I've been impressed with Chairez, and although Elliott is a tough out, Chairez has the tools to get his hand raised. I like Chairez to keep this fight standing and land the better shots against Elliott, who is there to be hit. It likely will go the distance, but I expect Chairez to tally up points on the feet and get a decision win.
To close out the parlay, I'm taking Manon Fiorot to beat Alexa Grasso on the main card. Fiorot is 8-1 in the UFC, and her only loss is to Valentina Shevchenko for the belt. Grasso, meanwhile, does seem like she's lost a step. Fiorot is more active on the feet and will also use her wrestling to control Grasso and win a decision, effectively securing the next title shot.
Noche UFC Bet: Edgar Chairez & Manon Fiorot parlay (+103)
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UFC Best Bets
Here is a recap of my best UFC picks for this weekend's Noche UFC card.
- Tommy McMillen (-166)
- Rafa Garcia (+164)
- Jean Silva by KO/TKO/DQ (-165)
- Edgar Chairez & Manon Fiorot parlay (+103)
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