The UFC is in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, on Saturday, August 15, for a solid UFC 330 card. In the main event, welterweight champion Islam Makhachev defends his belt against Ian Garry.
Below, I'll share my UFC 330 predictions, including my favorite pick, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All UFC odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
UFC 330 Betting Favorite
Mackenzie Dern (16-5) vs Gillian Robertson (17-8) - Strawweight
For my betting favorite, I'm taking Mackenzie Dern to defend her strawweight title in the co-main event against Gillian Robertson.
Robertson getting the title shot is a bit of a surprise, but this should be a fun fight, as they are two of the best grapplers in the UFC. However, I think Robertson will struggle to take Dern down, and on the feet, Dern's striking has improved tremendously over the years.
Neither of their striking is elite, but I like Dern's striking more, and I also believe she can have more success on the mat if it gets there. I like the champ to defend her belt by decision.
UFC 330 Bet: Mackenzie Dern (-225)
UFC 330 Underdog Play
Vicente Luque (24-12-1) vs. Tresean Gore (6-4) - Middleweight
For my underdog pick at UFC 330, I'm taking Vicente Luque to beat Tresean Gore in his second middleweight fight.
Luque is coming off an upset win over Kelvin Gastelum, as he overcame adversity and showed off his power. Gore, meanwhile, is someone I have never been high on, as he's 3-4 in the UFC.
I like Luque to be able to avoid Gore's power shots, and I think he can have success on the mat with his grappling. To me, Gore's path to victory is landing a KO shot on Luque and hoping his chin is gone, but he did survive against Gastelum, so I like Luque to be able to survive an early onslaught and get a stoppage win late. Essentially, the same path as his win over Gastelum.
UFC 330 Bet: Vicente Luque (+100)
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UFC 330 Prop Bet
Esteban Ribovics (15-3) vs. Edson Barboza (24-14) - Lightweight
On the main card of UFC 330 is a fan-friendly lightweight scrap, and I like the fight to go under 1.5 rounds.
Ribovics is a sizable betting favorite, and him to win by KO is -185, which is a high price to pay. Yet, the under 1.5 rounds is -115, which is a price I love.
Both Ribovics and Barboza come to bang, but Barboza's chin appears to be a bit shot. He's coming off a first-round KO loss to Jalin Turner in a fight in which he took a ton of damage, and I don't like the style matchup here. I expect Ribovics to be aggressive and likely KO Barboza in the first round, but to play it safe at -115, take the under 1.5 rounds (which also encompasses a quick Barboza finish, which the Brazilian is capable of).
UFC 330 Bet: Esteban Ribovics-Edson Barboza under 1.5 rounds (-115)
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UFC 330 Parlay
Islam Makhachev (28-1) vs. Ian Machado Garry (17-1)
Joel Alvarez (23-4) vs. Chidi Njokuani (25-12)
For my parlay at UFC 330, I'm taking Islam Makhachev and Joel Alvarez to get their hands raised.
Makhachev is set to defend his welterweight title against Garry, and to my surprise, the champ is only a -340 favorite (I expected him to be around -500). I just don't see a path to victory for Garry, as he lost to Shavkat Rakhmonov by decision, and he's basically a worse Makhachev. I expect the champ to use his wrestling to control the fight and cruise to a lopsided decision or a stoppage win.
To close out the parlay, I like Alvarez to beat Njokuani, even though Alvarez is taking the fight on short notice. Alvarez is a finisher, while Njokuani has lost back-to-back fights, including a first-round stoppage submission loss to Jake Matthews. I expect Alvarez to use his wrestling to take Njokuani down and get a submission win.
UFC 330 Bet: Islam Makhachev & Joel Alvarez parlay (-135)
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UFC Best Bets
Here is a recap of my best UFC picks for this weekend's UFC 330 card.
- Mackenzie Dern (-225)
- Vicente Luque (+100)
- Esteban Ribovics-Edson Barboza under 1.5 rounds (-115)
- Islam Makhachev & Joel Alvarez parlay (-135)
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