The UFC is in Belgrade, Serbia, on Saturday, July 31, for UFC Belgrade. The main event sees welterweight contenders throwing down, as Uros Medic takes on Daniel Rodriguez.
Below, I'll share my UFC Belgrade predictions, including my favorite pick, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All UFC odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
UFC Belgrade Betting Favorite
Robert Valentin (11-6) vs. Dusko Todorovic (13-6) - Middleweight
For my betting favorite at UFC Belgrade, I'm taking Robert Valentin to beat Dusko Todorovic.
Valentin is 1-3 in the UFC and saved his job with a first-round submission win. He now takes on Todorovic, who I don't think is UFC-caliber. Todorovic is 4-6 with the company, and his chin is a concern. He's been finished in four of his six losses.
I like Valentin to land the more damaging shots on the feet and hurt Todorovic en route to a submission or ground-and-pound TKO win. The price is great here at (-166).
UFC Belgrade Bet: Robert Valentin (-166)
UFC Belgrade Underdog
Noah Gugnon (9-2) vs. Milos Janicic (19-3) - Lightweight
For my underdog pick at UFC Belgrade, I'm taking Noah Gugnon to defeat Milos Janicic as a slight +100 underdog.
This card is tough, and there aren't a ton of dogs I'm targeting. I do like Gugnon, and I think he will close as the favorite. Both fighters are making their UFC debuts, so there are some question marks around each.
From what I have seen, Gugnon is the pick, as I think he's the more well-rounded fighter and could mix in the wrestling to control the fight. The end result will be a submission or ground-and-pound TKO here. Janicic is likely the better striker, so I expect Gugnon to wrestle here to control the bout and get the victory in his debut.
UFC Belgrade Bet: Noah Gugnon (+100)
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UFC Belgrade Prop
Navajo Stirling (10-0) vs. Jan Blachowicz (29-11-2)
For my prop at UFC Belgrade, I like Navajo Stirling to defeat Jan Blachowicz by decision.
Stirling took this fight on short notice, and although he's taking a step up in competition, he's a -325 favorite. However, there is a way to get Stirling at -105, and that is taking him by decision.
Blachowicz has been durable, and in a three-round fight, Stirling will have a hard time finishing him with strikes. Meanwhile, Stirling has proven to be a technical striker that doesn't take a ton of risks. I expect him to be the faster on the feet and land more volume to outpoint Blachowicz. He'll go on to win a decision for the biggest victory of his career.
UFC Belgrade Bet: Navajo Stirling by decision (-105)
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UFC Belgrade Parlay
Vlasto Cepo (14-3) vs. Gilbert Urbina (7-4) - Middleweight
Michael Oliveira (9-0) vs. Oban Elliott (12-4) - Welterweight
For my parlay at UFC Belgrade, I'm taking Vlasto Cepo and Michael Oliveira to get their hands raised.
Cepo is taking on Gilbert Urbina, who I don't think is UFC-caliber at all, and I'm not sure why he's still on the roster. Urbina is 1-3 in the UFC and has been finished in all of his losses. He is now moving up to middleweight. I don't think Urbina will be able to deal with the power at 185 lbs, and Cepo has proven to have KO power, so he should get a first-round finish here in his UFC debut.
In the other leg, I'm taking Oliveira to beat Oban Elliott. The former appeared to be someone the UFC would push, but that hasn't been the case. The undefeated Brazilian is coming off an impressive win on the Contender Series, while Elliott has lost back-to-back fights and has been exposed a little bit. Oliveira is the better striker, and I like him to land powerful shots to earn a TKO win, starting off his UFC career with a bang.
UFC Belgrade Bet: Vlasto Cepo & Michael Oliveira parlay (-154)
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UFC Best Bets
Here is a recap of my best UFC picks for this weekend's UFC Belgrade card.
- Robert Valentin (-166)
- Noah Gugnon (+100)
- Navajo Stirling by decision (-105)
- Vlasto Cepo & Michael Oliveira parlay (-154)
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