The UFC returns to the Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada, on Saturday, August 8, for UFC Vegas 120. The main event sees lightweight contenders throw down, as Mateusz Gamrot takes on Quillan Salkilld.
Below, I'll share my UFC Vegas 120 predictions, including my favorite pick, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All UFC odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
UFC Vegas 120 Betting Favorite
Diyar Nurgozhay (11-2) vs. Bruno Lopes (14-3) - Light Heavyweight
On the prelims of UFC Vegas 120, a light heavyweight bout goes down, as Diyar Nurgozhay takes on Bruno Lopes. I like Nurgozhay to get his hand raised.
Nurgozhay and Lopes are both 1-2 in the UFC, but I have been more impressed with Nurgozhay. He's coming off his first UFC win and has plenty of power, as he got a first-round knockout win over Emiliano Sordi on the regional scene before the UFC, which is a good win.
Lopes is there to be hit, and I like Nurgozhay to be able to land the better shots and get a TKO win in the first or second round.
UFC Vegas 120 Bet: Diyar Nurgozhay (-148)
UFC Vegas 120 Underdog
Mateusz Gamrot (26-4) vs. Quillan Salkilld (12-1) - Lightweight
For my underdog pick at UFC Vegas 120, I'm taking Mateusz Gamrot to beat Quillan Salkilld in the main event.
Salkilld has been impressive, as he's 5-0 in the UFC and is coming off some quick knockouts. However, I worry about his wrestling defense, as Gamrot is a tough out and has proven to have a good chin.
I like Gamrot to avoid the power shots and use his wrestling to control Salkilld and drag this fight into the later rounds, where he will take over. The first two rounds could be difficult for Gamrot, but I trust him to stay in the fight and use his wrestling and cardio to eventually grind out a decision win here.
UFC Vegas 120 Bet: Mateusz Gamrot (+114)
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UFC Vegas 120 Prop Bet
Alexia Thainara (14-1) vs. Amanda Lemos (15-6-1) - Strawweight
For my prop bet at UFC Vegas 120, I'm taking Alexia Thainara to defeat Amanda Lemos by decision on the main card.
Thainara has been impressive in the UFC and takes on Lemos, who has been struggling and appears to have lost a step. Lemos has lost back-to-back fights to Gillian Robertson and Tatiana Suarez, though she was at least able to avoid getting finished.
Lemos does well on the ground, as Robertson and Suarez were able to control her, but weren't able to finish her. I expect Thainara to follow a similar game plan and control Lemos on the ground and get a decision win, similar to her wins against Loma Lookboonmee and Bruna Brasil.
UFC Vegas 120 Bet: Alexia Thainara by decision (+100)
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UFC Vegas 120 Parlay
Manoel Sousa (14-1) vs. Richie Miranda (13-1) - Lightweight
Steven Asplund (7-2) vs. Guilherme Pat (6-2) - Heavyweight
For my parlay at UFC Vegas 120, I'm taking Manoel Sousa and Steven Asplund to get their hands raised Saturday.
Sousa is 1-0 in the UFC and coming off a KO win over Bolaji Oki, which was a good performance. Miranda, meanwhile, is making his UFC debut and is someone I thought should have been in the UFC for a while. Sousa is a great striker and should be able to land the more damaging shots and get a late TKO win here.
To close out the parlay, I'm taking Asplund to beat Guilherme Pat. Both Asplund and Pat are 1-1 in the UFC and are on the lower level of the heavyweight rankings. Yet, I've been more impressed with Asplund's striking and durability. I like him to land the more damaging shots and get a TKO win here to close out the parlay.
UFC Vegas 120 Bet: Manoel Sousa & Steven Asplund parlay (-116)
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UFC Best Bets
Here is a recap of my best UFC picks for this weekend's UFC Vegas 120 card.
- Diyar Nurgozhay (-148)
- Mateusz Gamrot (+148)
- Alexia Thainara by decision (+100)
- Manoel Sousa & Steven Asplund parlay (-116)
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