The UFC returns to the Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday, September 26, for UFC Vegas 121. In the main event, bantamweight contenders throw down, as Raul Rosas Jr. gets his first main event against Raoni Barcelos.
Below, I'll share my UFC Vegas 121 predictions, including my favorite pick, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All UFC odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
UFC Vegas 121 Betting Favorite
Ailin Perez (13-2) vs. Norma Dumont (13-3) - Women's Bantamweight
On the prelims of UFC Vegas 121 is an intriguing women's bantamweight fight between Ailin Perez and Norma Dumont, and I like Perez to get her hand raised.
Perez is someone I am high on. Since losing her debut, she's won six straight fights and has looked good. Dumont, meanwhile, has had mixed results and isn't someone I'm too confident in, as I don't think she displays enough activity in the cage.
I expect Perez to use her wrestling to control the fight. Even if she doesn't get the first or second takedown, she will continue to attempt them and clinch Dumont along the fence. Perez is relentless, and I worry about Dumont's cardio. I expect Perez to win the later rounds to win a decision as she wears down the Brazilian with her grappling.
UFC Vegas 121 Bet: Ailin Perez (-135)
UFC Vegas 121 Underdog
Raoni Barcelos (22-5) vs. Raul Rosas Jr. (12-1) - Bantamweight
For my underdog pick, I'm taking Raoni Barcelos to beat Raul Rosas Jr. in the main event. Despite his accomplishments at a young age, I haven't been as impressed with Rosas as many others.
Rosas has been able to win fights by just taking down his opponent and holding them, as he doesn't do much damage, which results in some lackluster fights. Barcelos, meanwhile, has solid takedown defense. On the feet, he is miles better of a striker than Rosas is.
Barcelos has turned back the clock as of late, as he's on a five-fight winning streak. To me, this fight seems similar to the Payton Talbott fight. Talbott was a highly-touted young prospect who struggled to get Barcelos down and was outmatched on the feet, which could be the case here for Rosas.
Ultimately, I like Barcelos to keep it standing and land the better shots to get a late TKO or decision win here.
UFC Vegas 121 Bet: Raoni Barcelos (+140)
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UFC Vegas 121 Prop Bet
Rodolfo Bellato (13-3-1) vs. Christian Edwards (8-5) - Light Heavyweight
For my prop bet at UFC Vegas 121, I'm taking Rodolfo Bellato and Christian Edwards to go over 1.5 rounds, as I think this could be a grinding, lackluster fight.
Edwards is coming off his UFC debut, where he lost to Modestas Bukauskas in a fight neither man was very active in. I expect Bellato and Edwards to try to clinch a lot and grind out this fight, which will help the over.
Edwards, meanwhile, is durable, as Bellato is more of a submission specialist. However, I think Edwards is good enough on the mat to avoid the submission and extend the fight, so I believe this will be another boring decision.
Regardless, the over is a good bet in this fight.
UFC Vegas 121 Bet: Rodolfo Bellato-Christian Edwards over 1.5 rounds (-166)
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UFC Vegas 121 Parlay
Montel Jackson (15-4) vs. Ricky Simon (22-7-1) - Bantamweight
John Castaneda (21-8-1) vs. Heili Alateng (17-10-2) - Bantamweight
For my parlay at UFC Vegas 121, I'm taking Montel Jackson and John Castaneda to get their hands raised Saturday.
Jackson takes on Ricky Simon on the prelims, and this is a fight I expect Jackson to win, and likely get a TKO. I thought Simon should have lost his last fight to Adrian Yanez, as he took a ton of damage, and his chin is a bit of an issue. Jackson hits hard, and I expect him to be able to keep it standing and land the damaging shots to get a TKO win here.
In the other leg, I like Castaneda to beat Alatengheili on the prelims. Castaneda is more active on the feet, while Alatengheili has negative striking differential, showing he is there to be hit. He also doesn't throw much volume, so Castaneda should be able to land the better shots and cruise to a decision win.
UFC Vegas 121 Bet: Montel Jackson & John Castaneda parlay (-106)
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UFC Best Bets
Here is a recap of my best UFC picks for this weekend's [Event Name] card.
- Ailin Perez (-135)
- Raoni Barcelos (+140)
- Rodolfo Bellato-Christian Edwards under 1.5 rounds (-166)
- Montel Jackson & John Castaneda parlay (-106)
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