Top MMA DFS Picks and Strategies for Noche UFC
UFC DFS expert picks for this Saturday's Noche UFC card are up, as well as fight-by-fight breakdowns, plus betting and lineup strategy for the entire event. Welcome to Drake's Takes.
UFC Noche Picks & Career Results:
2026 Overall Picks: 249-109-2
2025 Overall Picks: 345-152-2
DFS Lock of the Week: McMillen
Fanduel Captain: McMillen
Jean Silva (17-3-0) v. Jose Delgado (12-2-0)
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 17-3 (12 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Explosive, aggressive striker with serious knockout power who constantly looks to hurt opponents rather than simply win minutes
- Applies heavy pressure and thrives when opponents are willing to exchange, giving him massive finishing and DFS upside
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 12-2 (6 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)
- Dangerous offensive fighter with good size and power who has shown the ability to finish fights both standing and on the ground
- Willing to engage aggressively, but that style could be a major problem against someone with Silva's speed, pressure, and power
DFS Perspective:
Delgado will likely be completely outgunned here. He's dangerous in his own right, but this feels like a great matchup for Silva to pressure him and eventually find the kill shot. Silva's power and aggression give him one of the highest ceilings on the card, and I expect him to shine in this spot. He should be one of the stronger DFS targets on the slate.
UFC Noche pick: Silva
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Brandon Moreno (23-10-2) v. Joseph Morales (14-2-0)
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 23-10-2 (5 KO/TKO, 11 submissions)
- Extremely well-rounded with excellent scrambles, durable grappling, and the cardio to maintain a strong pace over extended fights
- Has struggled to find consistency recently, but still possesses the skill set and experience that made him one of the best flyweights in the world
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 14-2 (2 KO/TKO, 8 submissions)
- Dangerous grappler with a strong submission game who is comfortable attacking during scrambles
- Has rebuilt his career impressively, but this represents a significant test against one of the most experienced fighters in the division
DFS Perspective:
Surely Moreno isn't done at only 32, right? It's hard to say, but if he loses this fight, we may have to start having that conversation. Stylistically, though, this is a great matchup for him. Morales' biggest strength is his grappling, and Moreno is extremely difficult to control or submit. I expect Moreno's experience and more complete game to be the difference, and I'm backing him to get the job done.
UFC Noche pick: Moreno
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Tommy McMillen (11-0-0) v. Marwan Rahiki (9-0-0)
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 11-0 (5 KO/TKO, 5 submissions)
- Explosive striker with excellent hand speed and legitimate power who is comfortable turning fights into aggressive exchanges
- Can be hittable when he opens up offensively, but his speed allows him to beat opponents to the punch and create finishing opportunities
- Height: 5'8 – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 9-0 (8 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Powerful, aggressive finisher who is more than willing to stand his ground and trade heavy shots
- Carries dangerous power but can be hit cleanly, making exchanges especially risky against another explosive striker
DFS Perspective:
This should be an absolute war, and I would be surprised if it reaches the final bell. Both guys can be hittable, and both have legitimate power, so getting exposure to both sides in GPPs is a good idea. I think McMillen has a considerable speed advantage and should find the mark more often than Rahiki. I'll side with McMillen, but this is one of the better fights on the card to target from both sides.
UFC Noche pick: McMillen
Manon Fiorot (13-2-0) v. Alexa Grasso (17-5-1)
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 65" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 13-2 (7 KO/TKO)
- Technical, powerful striker who uses movement, distance, and combinations extremely well to control fights on the feet
- Strong defensive wrestling allows her to dictate where fights take place and makes it difficult for opponents to force her away from her striking game
- Height: 5'5" – Reach: 66" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 17-5-1 (5 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Technical boxer with good combinations and enough grappling ability to capitalize when opponents give her opportunities
- Most effective when she can establish her boxing rhythm, but could struggle against a bigger, more physical striker who can control the range
DFS Perspective:
This is a terrible matchup for Grasso. I expect Fiorot to dominate the striking exchanges, and I don't think she has much to worry about when it comes to being taken down. That should allow Fiorot to stay comfortable, control the range and pile up volume on the feet. I like Fiorot pretty comfortably here and expect her to control this fight from start to finish.
UFC Noche pick: Fiorot
Waldo Cortes-Acosta (17-3-0) v. Curtis Blaydes (19-6-0)
- Height: 6'4" – Reach: 78" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 17-3 (9 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Powerful heavyweight boxer with fast hands who does his best work when he can pressure forward and put combinations together
- Carries legitimate finishing power and can overwhelm opponents quickly once he has them hurt
- Height: 6'4" – Reach: 80" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 19-6 (13 KO/TKO)
- Powerful wrestler who has historically done his best work through takedowns, top control, and ground-and-pound
- Still possesses a dangerous skill set, but durability is becoming a major concern after absorbing significant damage throughout his career
DFS Perspective:
After the beating Blaydes took in April, I have little to no confidence in his ability to take another one this soon. The wrestling is always a threat, but I don't trust Blaydes to survive long enough to consistently put it to work. I expect Cortes-Acosta to get his hands going early, hurt Blaydes and end this before the judges are required. I like Cortes-Acosta quite a bit for his finishing upside in DFS.
UFC Noche pick: Cortes-Acosta
David Martinez (14-1-0) v. Dan Ige (19-11-0)
- Height: 5'5" – Reach: 67" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 14-1 (10 KO/TKO)
- Explosive striker with fast hands, sharp combinations, and legitimate finishing power
- Pushes a strong pace on the feet and is at his best when he can pressure opponents and consistently force them into striking exchanges
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 19-11 (7 KO/TKO, 5 submissions)
- Tough, experienced boxer with legitimate power who has spent much of his career competing against high-level UFC competition
- Historically difficult to put away, but his recent results have raised questions about how much he has left against younger, faster opponents
DFS Perspective:
Ige's once-great career is floundering, as he's now lost four of his last five and is firmly on the back nine at the age of 35. I don't see him having many opportunities in this matchup. Martinez should have a field day on the feet with his speed, power and combinations. I expect Martinez to take control early and potentially put Ige away, making him another strong DFS target.
UFC Noche pick: Martinez
Tim Elliott (21-14-1) v. Edgar Chairez (14-6-0)
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 66" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 21-14-1 (3 KO/TKO, 8 submissions)
- Unorthodox, relentless grappler who creates chaos with constant movement, takedown attempts, and scrambles
- Can pile up DFS points through wrestling and control, but his reckless style regularly puts him in dangerous positions
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 14-6 (4 KO/TKO, 9 submissions)
- Dangerous submission grappler who is particularly good at capitalizing when opponents expose their neck during transitions
- Carries legitimate finishing ability on the ground and could benefit from Elliott's willingness to create wild scrambles
DFS Perspective:
This is a dangerous matchup for Elliott because his usual chaos could give Chairez exactly the opportunities he wants. Elliott can absolutely rack up takedowns and control if he's able to stay safe on top, but trusting him to do that is never easy. Chairez has the submission game to punish one mistake, and I like his chances of eventually finding an opening. I'll take Chairez to get the win in a fight with plenty of DFS upside through the grappling exchanges.
UFC Noche pick: Chairez
Ignacio Bahamondes (17-7-0) v. Muslim Salikhov (22-6-0)
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 17-7 (11 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Extremely long striker who uses kicks and combinations well to attack opponents from multiple ranges
- Carries legitimate finishing power and is especially dangerous when he can establish his distance and force opponents to chase him
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 22-6 (14 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Experienced and creative striker with dangerous kicks, counters, and legitimate one-shot knockout power
- Remains dangerous on the feet, but at this stage of his career, younger opponents who can push pace and make him work have become increasingly difficult matchups
DFS Perspective:
Salikhov is always dangerous because the power is still there, but this feels like a difficult matchup for him at this point in his career. Bahamondes has a massive size advantage and should be able to use his length to keep Salikhov at the end of his strikes. I expect Bahamondes to push the pace, pile up damage and eventually find the finish. I like Bahamondes quite a bit for DFS.
UFC Noche pick: Bahamondes
Yousri Belgaroui (10-3-0) v. Djorden Santos (11-3-0)
- Height: 6'6" – Reach: 79" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 10-3 (8 KO/TKO)
- Decorated kickboxer with excellent size, length, and high-level striking experience
- Most dangerous when he can keep the fight at range, where his kicks and long combinations make him difficult to approach cleanly
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 11-3 (3 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)
- Physical fighter with good power who is willing to pressure forward and force opponents into exchanges
- More comfortable mixing different areas of MMA than Belgaroui, giving him a potential path if he can consistently get inside and disrupt the kickboxing
DFS Perspective:
Santos needs to make this ugly, because I don't like his chances of winning a clean striking fight with Belgaroui. The size and striking experience should be a significant advantage for Belgaroui if he can keep this standing and maintain distance. There is always some concern with his grappling, but I like him to keep Santos off him enough to take over on the feet. I'll side with Belgaroui, with a finish definitely in play if Santos can't consistently close the distance.
UFC Noche pick: Belgaroui
Drakkar Klose (16-3-1) v. Tommy Gantt (12-0-0)
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 16-3-1 (6 KO/TKO)
- Physical, experienced lightweight who mixes pressure boxing with wrestling and does a good job making fights uncomfortable
- Difficult to overwhelm and has spent years facing significantly better competition than most developing prospects
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 76" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12-0 (6 KO/TKO, 5 submissions)
- Undefeated prospect who brings athleticism, confidence, and a well-rounded offensive game into his biggest test
- Has yet to taste defeat, but now faces a major jump in competition against an established UFC veteran
DFS Perspective:
Gantt should excel in this matchup against the aging Klose. Klose has plenty of experience, but I like Gantt's youth, athleticism and overall upside to take over this fight. He has already shown the ability to put up big DFS scores, and I expect more of the same here. Gantt is one of the stronger DFS targets on the card.
UFC Noche pick: Gantt
Rafa Garcia (19-4-0) v. Rongzhu (28-6-0)
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 19-4 (2 KO/TKO, 8 submissions)
- Physical, well-rounded fighter who mixes pressure striking with a strong wrestling and control game
- Has faced significantly better UFC competition and can generate DFS scoring through takedowns and control time rather than needing a finish
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 28-6 (15 KO/TKO, 7 submissions)
- Aggressive striker with good power and a willingness to push the pace when opponents engage with him
- Dangerous offensively and has considerably more professional fights, but has not consistently faced the same level of competition as Garcia
DFS Perspective:
This is a great spot to target the dog. Garcia brings good striking, along with the takedown and control ability we want for DFS, and he has fought much better competition than Rongzhu. I think Garcia has multiple paths to win this fight while also carrying a strong scoring ceiling if the wrestling gets going. These odds should be flipped, and Garcia is one of my favorite value plays on the card.
UFC Noche pick: Garcia
Jessie Rosas (8-1-0) v. Sean King (6-0-0)
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 8-1 (2 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)
- Young, aggressive prospect who pushes the pace and is willing to mix striking with grappling
- Has already been tested in a loss and brings more professional experience into a matchup between two developing fighters
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: N/A – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 6-0 (3 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Undefeated prospect with good athleticism who has looked impressive while working his way through the regional scene
- Still largely untested against stronger competition, making this an important step up despite his perfect record
DFS Perspective:
This is an interesting prospect fight, and I don't think there is a huge gap between these two. King has the undefeated record, but Rosas has more experience and has already dealt with some adversity in his career. I slightly prefer Rosas to push the pace, mix in his grappling and give King problems he hasn't had to deal with yet. I'll take Rosas to hand King his first loss.
UFC Noche pick: Rosas
JJ Aldrich (15-7-0) v. Regina Tarin (8-0-0)
- Height: 5'5" – Reach: 67" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 15-7 (3 KO/TKO)
- Experienced, technical striker who generally fights at a measured pace and looks to win exchanges with clean boxing
- Has spent years facing UFC-level competition and is difficult to overwhelm, but rarely brings a massive finishing ceiling
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 66" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 8-0 (4 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Undefeated prospect who brings youth, athleticism, and a more aggressive approach to her biggest test
- Still relatively untested against experienced competition, but has the opportunity to make a statement against a longtime UFC veteran
DFS Perspective:
Aldrich has a massive experience advantage, but this feels like a good opportunity for Tarin to show she belongs. Aldrich's style usually keeps fights competitive, but she doesn't pose much of a finishing threat and can let opponents stay in the fight. I slightly prefer Tarin's youth and activity to be the difference over three rounds. I'll take a shot on the undefeated prospect to get the win, although I'm not expecting this to be a must-target DFS fight.
UFC Noche pick: Tarin
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available. Check out DraftKings to bet on MMA Odds and use the DraftKings promo code for a great welcome offer.
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING RULES
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING RULES
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
