UFC Predictions: Preview, Picks & Props for UFC 330 - Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
The UFC heads to Philadelphia for a numbered card that sports two title fights. We'll break down each bout on the 12-fight slate, including a welterweight who will attempt to kill a king and a raw athlete looking to make a statement. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
UFC Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Myktybek Orolbai ($9,600)
Orolbai's stat line against Chris Curtis read like an NBA player's impressive double-double, as he tallied a whopping 20 takedowns to go along with 19 significant strikes in a three-round decision. Jeremiah Wells is all power all the time, but his sloppy, explosive striking style opens up avenues for takedowns, which I fully expect Orolbai to exploit.
Ramiz Brahimaj ($8,200)
The anatomy of a Neil Magny win in 2026 consists of the veteran losing the majority of the fight before turning the tide when his opponent gets tired. While the muscle-bound Brhaimaj is liable to gas out if forced to work hard, I can't trust Magny to stand up to his power wrestling and striking at this point in his career. Magny may have a path to victory, but too many things need to go right at nearly even odds.
Lucas Fernando ($9,100)
I view Fernando as a cleaner version of Rafael Tobias, as he throws tighter strikes, keeps better range, and has better entries on his takedowns. While he is not as strong of a submission grappler, he should be the stronger fighter, which should help Fernando keep the fight where he wants it.
Mackenzie Dern ($9,000)
Dern's striking is still a work in progress, but she is now comfortable and aggressive on the feet. This should be enough to get her past Gillian Robertson, who still treats striking as a means to an end. While Dern remains a poor wrestler, we have never seen Robertson win a fight standing, and I can't pick her to best the champion on the ground.
Charles Johnson ($6,900)
Johnson became the ultimate free square on DraftKings after Jose Ochoa had to withdraw from their scheduled bout. This left "InnerG" at a massive underdog salary against replacement Eduardo Henrique, despite the two being priced at close to even money. Henrique looks solid everywhere but is too willing to let an opponent bring the fight to him. This should benefit Johnson, who tends to struggle when pressed early.
Vicente Luque ($7,800)
One of the benefits of moving up in weight is the speed advantage a fighter naturally gains over their opponents. We saw how well Luque's power translated in his debut at middleweight against Kelvin Gastelum, which may equate to the Brazilian having the best of both worlds. As long as he faces opponents like Tresean Gore, who are not particularly physically imposing, I will feel comfortable picking Luque to get the job done.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
UFC Predictions to Consider on PrizePicks - Significant Strikes
Jalin Turner OVER 32.5 Significant Strikes and Mansur Abdul-Malik UNDER 28.5 Significant Strikes
Turner has the power and length to get work done early, but Kaue Fernandes has been exceptionally strong defensively, absorbing just 1.42 significant strikes per minute in four UFC fights. This prowess should keep him safe against the more powerful strikes of Turner, resulting in an extended bout.
Abdul-Malik is a ball of energy in the cage, throwing big strikes and attempting power takedowns on opponents. Dustin Stoltzfus is a powerful puncher in his own right and has been finished in four of his eight losses, meaning this fight likely won't take long, regardless of the outcome.
Interested in backing these or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool
UFC Bets to Consider
Ian Garry (+300)
Garry was my selection to be the welterweight champion to end 2026, but this pick is about more than obligation. In my view, this is Islam Makhachev's first real test at welterweight, as he will need to negotiate a five-inch height and four-inch reach disadvantage. Garry is also excellent at keeping range, which will make it more difficult for the champion to find his takedown entries. I don't doubt that Makhachev will be the better ground fighter if it gets there, but this will be a different challenge than Makhachev has ever faced, and I ultimately don't think he can match up to Garry's combination of size and skill.
Joel Alvarez wins via submission (+185)
I'm pleasantly surprised to see so much juice on this line, as Chidi Njokuani has shown no ability to defend on the ground and has been taken down and controlled by non-wrestlers like Jared Gooden. "Bang Bang" can knock out any fighter in the weight class, but Alvarez has shown toughness in the past, which gives me confidence that he will be able to weather a potential early storm.
Donte Johnson Wins in Round 1 (+250)
As a fighter, Johnson isn't much more than power and athleticism, but that should be enough against Eric McConico, who is a blank slate defensively and lumbers around the Octagon. Like his fight with Rodolfo Vieira, McConico could find success if he can extend the fight, but I have no confidence that he can keep himself safe in early exchanges.
Esteban Ribovics Wins via KO/TKO (-155)
From my perspective, the end of Edson Barboza as a viable contender came in his loss to Drakkar Klose, as he simply let the fight slip away from him before finally trying to win (and coming up short) in Round 3. This kind of hesitancy and aversion to offense almost always spells trouble against aggressive, powerful punchers. Ribovics is power and aggression personified, and I don't see how this version of Barboza deals with such an opponent.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for 330. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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