UFC Predictions: Preview, Picks & Props for UFC Belgrade - Medic vs. Rodriguez
The UFC makes its first trip to Serbia for a 14-fight card stuffed with debuting fighters. We'll break down each fight across three platforms to help potential players profit. Picks this week include a scuffling UFC veteran who may win on experience alone, and a light heavyweight mainstay looking to turn away the division's next big prospect. Our betting lines this week come courtesy of the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate to the post date of this article.
Predictions to Consider on DraftKings
Noah Gugnon ($8,000)
Gugnon and Milos Janicic have similar striking styles, as both men like to take the center of the cage and snipe at their opponents. Wrestling may prove to be the equalizer here, as Janicic's heavy lead-leg stance has made him susceptible to takedowns in the past, and Gugnon is not shy about mixing things up.
Jan Blachowicz ($7,200)
A few years ago, I would have scoffed at this price for Blachowicz, who is one of the premier underrated kickboxers at light heavyweight and can lean on his wrestling when needed. However, "Polish Power" hasn't been shy about his limitations following a meniscus tear in his knee that he suffered in April. Navajo Stirling had tremendous problems dealing with the pressure of Ion Cutelaba before "The Hulk's" gas tank gave out, and I still think Blachowicz can slow the fight down enough to take a decision. However, he will be at a disadvantage in height and reach here, and we need to temper our expectations for a 43-year-old fighter who may be stepping into the cage at less than 100 percent.
Alexander Poppeck ($7,500)
Poppeck's status as a significant underdog is a bit puzzling here, as he will be the more athletic fighter and, as a willing wrestler, has more ways to win. Jovan Leka is the better technical striker and has fast hands, but he will need to plod forward to land strikes on an opponent who is good at keeping range. I consider this a close fight between two men with different skill sets, so the disparity forces me to lean towards the underdog.
Hailey Cowan ($6,700)
In making this pick, I am not attempting to convince anyone that Cowan is a world beater. However, I have seen nothing to make me think that Nikolija Milosevic deserves to be a (-450) favorite against anyone on the current roster. While she is aggressive and physical, Cowan will hold a three-inch height advantage here and does her best work in the clinch. Milosevic may turn out to be a fighter worth watching, but she only recently graduated to facing fighters with winning records, and more than one win on her ledger has come against a professional MMA debutante. Meanwhile, Cowan has won rounds against UFC fighters. That may be an incredibly low bar, but it is enough for me to pick the underdog given these odds.
Dusko Todorovic ($7,700)
Before picking Robert Valentin to win his last fight, I offered the caveat that the selection was based more on the quality of his opponent than anything else. He faces a fighter in Todorovic who can be knocked out but is also incredibly aggressive and powerful. Julien Leblanc let Valentin dictate terms in a way Tudorovic simply will not, which is enough for me to pick him here.
Stephanie Luciano ($8,800)
Luciano's wrestling, combined with her agility and ability to cut angles on the feet, should make things tough on Marina Spasic in her first trip to the Octagon. It should be noted that Luciano has shown a lack of fight IQ when it comes to things like throwing kicks while in boxing range, which has gotten her hit hard. She also is a bit too accepting of brawls when she finds herself out of position. Spasic has the power to capitalize in these moments, but the margin is too narrow when faced with the disparity in overall skill here.
Mark Vologdin ($7,800)
A standard disclaimer that Vologdin is too small to be a bantamweight needs to accompany any of his fight previews. He will give up a whopping six inches of height and seven inches of reach against Borislav Nikolic, who will hang back and attempt to respond to his opponent's strikes with uncontrolled flurries. This should allow Vologdin to get on the inside as Nikolic backs himself against the fence. It needs to be noted that Nikolic has finished seven of his 16 victories by knockout, and Vologdin takes entirely too much damage. However, he hasn't been knocked out in his UFC (or UFC-adjacent) fight, and I believe the pace set by Vologdin will be too much for the Serbian.
Mateusz Rebecki ($9,600)
Rebecki's all-action style should pay dividends against Kyle Prepolec, who is far too comfortable letting the fight come to him. This has contributed to just a 45 percent takedown defense rate, and Rebecki has proven to be incredibly dangerous in the early stages of a bout. Look for the Polish fighter to assert himself immediately, firing huge shots and looking to bring the fight to the floor.
Bogdan Grad ($8,600)
Dennis Buzukja has shown himself to be a dangerous puncher, but Grad will likely have a good idea of the fight he wants, having tallied at least three takedowns in each of his last four fights. While he can brawl too much for his own good, Buzukja is not nearly as clean in his standup as someone like Luke Riley, and I expect Grad to be able to control this fight with constant pressure.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
UFC Predictions to Consider on PrizePicks - Significant Strikes
Marcin Tybura UNDER 25.5 Significant Strikes, Gilbert Urbina UNDER 12.5 Significant Strikes, and Tofiq Musayev OVER 31.5 Significant Strikes
Tybura is a slow-paced boxer at the best of times, but I doubt heavily that he will look to throw in the pocket with a dangerous kickboxer like Aleksandar Rakic, who is known for his precision and one-strike power. I expect either an early knockout by Rakic or a grappling clinic by Tybura in this one, both of which will keep totals low.
Vlasto Cepo would seem right at home fighting in a backyard, as he sprints across the cage throwing big hooks until his opponent falls. Urbina has some agility and power, but doesn't take his head off the center line, which has resulted in consecutive knockout losses in the first round. This is a fight between a wild man and a defensively flawed fighter. I would be surprised if it lasts longer than one or two exchanges.
Musayev has always been willing to let his opponent dictate range, leaning on his ability to snipe and throw counter combinations. L'udovit Klein has the speed and cage craft to keep himself out of dangerous situations. His 76 percent takedown defense rate should also help keep this fight upright.
Interested in backing these or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool
UFC Bets to Consider
Michael Oliveira Wins via KO/TKO (-139)
The equation seems like a simple one here, as Oban Elliott tends to back himself to the side of the cage as a matter of habit, and Oliveira wants to do nothing more than stalk his opponents and throw hammers. "The Welsh Gangster" could make things interesting if he decides to wrestle, but Elliott seems to have consciously moved away from wrestling, having secured just one takedown in his last four fights.
Uros Medic Wins in Round 1 (+102)
If you are picking Medic to beat Daniel Rodriguez, it's best to bet he will get it done early, as he has won three of his last four fights in the first round. I don't think Rodriguez will be able to deal with the speed or agility of the Serbian as he attempts to lumber into range. It may be true that Medic only has a round in him, but he may only need a few exchanges, as Rodriguez has absorbed an ungodly 7.20 significant strikes per minute in his UFC career.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for UFC Belgrade. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
Looking for a new sportsbook? Get in on the action with our best sportsbook promo codes, as well as a list of best sports betting sites and sports betting apps.
