UFC Predictions: Preview, Picks & Props for UFC Noche - Silva vs. Delgado
The UFC heads to Arizona for its annual Noche event, which features 13 intriguing fights. Picks this week include a veteran who will look to derail an undefeated prospect, and a heavyweight trying to salsa dance his way into title contention. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
UFC Predictions to Consider on DraftKings
JJ Aldrich ($7,100)
I can only assume the price disparity here is owed to the perception of Aldrich as a long-in-the-tooth journeywoman, but I'll take that experience against Regina Tarin, who likes to use her footwork and blast counter combinations from range. Aldrich can play that game, too, and is also comfortable leading and switching to a wrestling attack when needed. The physicality of "Kill Bill" is a bit of a concern, though early returns suggest that the 21-year-old won't be the knockout artist she was on the regional scene, and I want to see how she reacts to a clean striker who will stay in the fight for 15 minutes.
Jessie Rosas ($7,800)
As a credentialed amateur wrestler with a lanky frame and a boxing background, Sean King looks like the pick on paper. While he can certainly win here, I was expecting a bit more from "The King of New Orleans," as tape revealed a fighter who struggles to hold position against strong BJJ players. While he will throw in combinations, his punches often seem more like a way to score points than anything else. By contrast, Rosas features a stinging jab and will work the body. He's also the brother of jiujitsu phenom Raul Rosas, so I have no worries about his ability to compete once the fight hits the ground.
Rong Zhu ($8,500)
Zhu has taken his losses in the Octagon, but he is a strong, rangy fighter who is maximally aggressive and does a bit of everything. Rafa Garcia is an athletic wrestler with power, but Grant Dawson showed us how ineffectual he can look on his back. While Zhu isn't the technical wrestler that Dawson is, I expect him to be the stronger man here.
Tommy Gantt ($9,400)
Drakkar Klose has quietly won five of his last six fights, but he has never been able to keep his feet against strong wrestlers, as evidenced by his 69 percent takedown defense rate. Gantt will be able to put that All-American pedigree to use, and while Klose is a fluid striker with deceptive power, he works too slowly to put Gantt in consistent danger.
Edgar Chairez ($8,800)
As a scrappy wrestler frequently at underdog odds, Tim Elliott tends to get love from the DFS community. This is especially true in matchups like this one, as Chairez is a boxer with a takedown defense rate of just 47 percent. However, it was Elliott who got tired down the stretch in his fight with Steve Erceg, and we've seen Chairez pull out gritty decisions against fighters like Felipe Bunes after heavy early grappling sequences. If Elliott cannot find an early submission, he will be at the mercy of the much faster and more powerful fighter.
David Martinez ($9,200)
Martinez's ability to strike quickly and exit the pocket should cause problems for Dan Ige, who was a slow-footed puncher during the best moments of his career. "The Black Spartan" will be able to sprinkle in his wrestling for good measure, making him an option for cash tournaments that retains some sneaky GPP upside due to his advantages here.
Alexa Grasso ($7,200)
Manon Fiorot has put on some excellent UFC performances, but I still wonder how effective her game becomes if she cannot best her opponent physically. Though we have seen Grasso beaten by strong wrestlers, Fiorot hasn't often faced fighters with the footwork and crisp striking ability to test her in space. Grasso should also be the better BJJ player here, which will make things interesting if this fight hits the ground.
Joseph Morales ($8,300)
This is a matchup I would have picked with my eyes closed just a few years ago, but Brandon Moreno's recent performances have consisted of the former flyweight champion standing stationary in the Octagon and looking to fight his opponent in close quarters. Morales won't simply allow the better boxer to have the bout he wants, and I expect him to use long-range weapons before closing the distance to land his takedowns.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
UFC Predictions to Consider on PrizePicks - Significant Strikes
Muslim Salikhov OVER 18.5 Significant Strikes, and Djorden Santos UNDER 40.5 Significant Strikes
Age and durability concerns are real when it comes to Salikhov; however, the "The King of Kung Fu" is constantly moving in the Octagon, whereas Ignacio Bahamondes tends to plant his feet and look for big strikes. While I do expect a finish to materialize for the Chilean, I think we will get deep enough into the fight to surpass this total.
Santos fights so aggressively that it's hard to see the significant strike counter getting too far into double digits before this one ends. Yousri Belgaroui generally likes to set traps and accumulate damage on his opponents, but the Brazilian is likely to march into the teeth of his offense, which should result in a quick finish.
Interested in backing these or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool
UFC Bets to Consider
Waldo Cortes-Acosta Wins via KO/TKO (+175)
It didn't take much more than a jab and a cross to have Curtis Blaydes on skates multiple times against Josh Hokit, and "Salsa Boy" is an infinitely faster and crisper striker than the former college wrestler. Cortes-Acosta's takedown defense has been shaky at times, but the days of Blaydes using his wrestling to win fights are a distant memory, as he hasn't secured more than two in a fight in nearly four years. The writing seems to be on the wall here, and I believe we will mark this as the moment in which "Razor" officially lost his spot as a fighter in the upper tier of the heavyweight division.
Marwan Rahiki Wins via KO/TKO (+240)
Tommy McMillen will always be fun to watch, but even in a thorough dismantling of Alberto Montes, "Gun" was hit by clean strikes that took him off his feet. Pressure, chaos, and toughness won't be enough against Marwan Rahiki, who will work his striking at multiple levels, is excellent at keeping range, and is the more fluid striker. Either man could end this in impressive fashion, but McMillen's fights to this point have been glorified backyard brawls, and I think Rahiki has the polish to avoid getting swept up by the hurricane.
Jean Silva Wins via KO/TKO (-145)
We got more than enough information in Jose Delgado's last fight against Austin Bashi to let us know that he is not ready for a challenge like Silva. Not only was he hurt by the lifelong wrestler multiple times at range, but Delgado got so tired from Bashi's pressure that he was forced to shoot a takedown in the third round, which resulted in him being mounted and having to defend elbows as time ticked away. Delgado has a nice jab and can fight going backwards, but the raw speed and athleticism of Silva should be enough to get this done.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for UFC Paris. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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