UFC Predictions: Preview, Picks & Props for UFC Paris - Hooker vs. Parnasse
The UFC heads to Paris, France, for a 14-fight card stuffed to the brim with interesting debutants and competitive matchups. We'll take a look at each bout across three platforms, with picks including a highly-touted kickboxer looking to take the UFC by storm, and a prospect attempting to bounce back after his first organizational loss. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA Betting Page and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
UFC Predictions to Consider on DraftKings
Delphine Benouaich ($8,500)
Sofia Montenegro fights with a forward pressure and aggression that is uncommon at strawweight, but her lack of defense while closing the distance opens her up to being hit cleanly and taken down. Benouaich utilizes good footwork and can use grappling when the situation calls for it, which means she has all the tools she needs to get her hand raised.
Klaudia Sygula ($7,900)
Sygula and Nora Cornolle are both experienced kickboxers, but I see a bit more well-roundedness in the game of Sygula, who can use wrestling and sharp counter-striking to get ahead on the scorecards. We have seen Cornolle struggle with wrestlers in the past, and I favor the volume of Sygula to get the job done while the two are at range.
Nathaniel Wood ($9,200)
Wood should be too much for late-replacement fighter Pavel Andrusca, who swings big, singular shots to close the distance and land takedowns. The UFC veteran is a good enough grappler that he should be able to survive exchanges, and he will be the cleaner, faster striker by a country mile here.
Mario Pinto ($9,100)
Ryan Spann has the physical gifts to do terrible things to opponents, but even against a Marcus Almeida who seems to be on his way out of the sport, "Superman" waited nearly two full rounds before throwing his hands, as he spent much of the fight yielding space and falling behind due to inactivity. Pinto will be the crisper striker here and should be able to use his offensive wrestling to keep Spann guessing.
Felipe Lima ($8,900)
Lima is in a good spot to avenge his loss to Payton Talbott, as Morgan Charriere's lack of consistent footwork leaves him open to be hit. While he does sport an impressive 83 percent takedown defense rate, the French fighter hasn't faced an opponent as strong as Lima, and I can't trust him to keep himself safe over three rounds.
Muhammadjon Naimov ($7,000)
Losene Keita is a fast and powerful kickboxer, but this price seems a bit too dismissive of Naimov, who should be able to pressure effectively and work his wrestling game. While he gave a good account of himself in his loss to the aforementioned Nathaniel Wood, Kieta tends to let his opponents dictate range, which should allow the Tajik fighter to establish himself early.
Kurtis Campbell ($9,300)
It's never a good thing when a fighter's toughness is his best attribute, but that is precisely the case for Trevor Peek, who will try to generate offense in any number of ways, but gets hurt too much to ever be considered a confident play. Campbell may need to weather an early storm here, but I expect him to take over the fight with his wrestling and power striking.
Punahele Soriano ($7,200)
I simply can't bring myself to recommend Daniil Donchenko as a significant favorite. The Ukrainian fighter is big, athletic, and powerful, but he relies on being a bully to make up for a lack of striking technique and defense. This should not faze Soriano, who hits hard and can revert to a power wrestling game. Donchenko can knock out any man in the cage, but Soriano should be able to rely on his experience and grit to see him through.
Oumar Sy ($8,800)
It looked like Sy didn't know quite what to make of an aggressive fighter like Ion Cutelaba, but he should have no such issues with Modestas Bukauskas, who slows fights to a crawl by using his movement and looking to counterpunch. This should help Sy stay on his front foot, controlling the fight with his power striking and wrestling.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
UFC Predictions to Consider on PrizePicks - Significant Strikes
Axel Sola OVER 28.5 Significant Strikes, and Michael Page OVER 26.5 Significant Strikes
Sola has relied on his wrestling in recent fights, but Fares Ziam hasn't been taken down more than twice in a fight since February of 2024 and excels at keeping distance. I think this will result in a kickboxing match early on, which should help us get past our total here.
Page always puts a premium on avoiding damage, but he'll have nowhere to hide against Nursulton Ruziboev, who actually measures two inches taller than "MVP," despite a three-inch reach deficit. Look for Page to prod with kicks and jabs at range, which should add up as we move to the later rounds.
Interested in backing these or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool
UFC Bets to Consider
Michael Aljarouj Wins via KO/TKO (+320)
Aljarouj can wait on his opponents a bit too much, but he has a sharp, powerful jab that he uses to set up combinations. Fabia Sintes marches forward with his chin in the air, looking to get the fight to the floor, and Aljarouj should be able to keep his feet and find the knockout blow.
Luis Felipe Dias wins via KO/TKO (+310)
Matthieu Duclos is a lanky counterpuncher who wants to keep his hands low, slip shots, and take an angle to stay safe. This is a dangerous game to play against Dias, who has power, fast hands, and can cut off the cage. Dulcos may be able to find success with his footwork initially, but unless he hurts the Brazilian, he will spend the better part of 15 minutes trying to escape danger.
Salahdine Parnasse Wins via KO/TKO (-132)
Parnasse looks to suffocate opponents by applying pressure early, leaving them glued to the fence so he can work a power striking game. This will leave Dan Hooker without much to do with his considerable length, as his success will depend on finding counter shots against a faster, more powerful opponent. "The Hangman" has always been hard to put away, but Parnasse should have every tool imaginable at his disposal here.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for UFC Paris. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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